USCG RS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 AGree. First thing to root for is the other models coming on board to this storm. Then....we will hash out the particularsAnalysing a storm this early, that's showing this potential, just leads to heartbreak 99% of the time. All the pieces are there... Let's see what happens with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That day 6 storm looks good but its day 6. When its day 3 then ill get excited. But the threat is definitely there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Day 6 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Includes both events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We deserve this, we really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We deserve this, we really do. Hell yes we do!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On the SW edge of significant snow accumulations.....when have we seen this before? Has potential definitely, but best to not get too worked up over it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We deserve this, we really do. Why? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Why? Lol Because we are good people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Changes incoming on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Large storm taking shape over the middle of the country on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks the energy is going to get harmlessly tossed OTS, missed the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks the energy is going to get harmlessly tossed OTS, missed the phase.GFS wants absolutely nothing to do with wednesday, it's been insistant on that run after run. Yet another GFS vs Euro battle again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Released today from the CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Released today from the CPC I can't imagine many will be shocked by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Changes incoming on the 18z GFS. What changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What changes? OTS no phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I can't imagine many will be shocked by this. Lots of calls for a major pattern change from what I've been seeing. I'm not buying into it yet. Probably a situation where we gradually lose the record cold and end up inching closer to average as the month goes on. I don't think anyone is expecting -25 degree departures in March, but I don't think we'll see Morch either. I've seen interesting stats for some sites in the northeast where a much below average February was typically followed by a below average March. OTS no phase The 18z GEFS are definitely interesting, somewhat similar to the OP Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lots of calls for a major pattern change from what I've been seeing. I'm not buying into it yet. Probably a situation where we gradually lose the record cold and end up inching closer to average as the month goes on. I don't think anyone is expecting -25 degree departures in March, but I don't think we'll see Morch either. I've seen interesting stats for some sites in the northeast where a much below average February was typically followed by a below average March. The 18z GEFS are definitely interesting, somewhat similar to the OP Euro. Red flag. Again d6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lots of calls for a major pattern change from what I've been seeing. I'm not buying into it yet. Probably a situation where we gradually lose the record cold and end up inching closer to average as the month goes on. I don't think anyone is expecting -25 degree departures in March, but I don't think we'll see Morch either. I've seen interesting stats for some sites in the northeast where a much below average February was typically followed by a below average March. The 18z GEFS are definitely interesting, somewhat similar to the OP Euro. Well we know it typically takes a little longer for a pattern change to actually take hold from when they are first advertised. I agree, I don't think we see big departures all month but the departures at the start of the month could carry the month keeping it below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Red flag. Again d6. Agree. Just replying to his comment about the OP GFS being OTS. Ensembles are a bit different and I don't see the harm in looking at them at this range. This is a weather discussion board and no one is calling for a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Agree. Just replying to his comment about the OP GFS being OTS. Ensembles are a bit different and I don't see the harm in looking at them at this range. This is a weather discussion board and no one is calling for a blizzard.I wasn't chastising. Apologies if it came off that way. I was just saying it's a red flag the GEFS is showing some potential for this storm as well. Peaks my interest for this storm, but it's D6. I will say if the Euro catches a storm, many times its in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I wasn't chastising. Apologies if it came off that way. I was just saying it's a red flag the GEFS is showing some potential for this storm as well. Peaks my interest for this storm, but it's D6. I will say if the Euro catches a storm, many times its in this range. No worries, we're on the same page. It's been a frustrating winter to track storms with all the wild swings even up until 24 hours prior to the event. This one just piqued my interest since a signal has been showing up for awhile for that time frame and the setup looks like it has potential (at least for NE, and hopefully for us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Let's just call them Miller Bostons from now on So it shall be written....so it shall be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Late next week is going to be interesting. IMO the key to the next 10 days is the Pacific piece of energy that will move into California and the Southwest in the next few days. It's noticeably stronger and faster in the GFS, preventing Arctic energy from really digging. NYC area still gets a little snow from the arctic front/clipper in this scenario though. The Euro, on the other hand, keeps the Pacific energy pretty weak, allowing the arctic energy to really dig and giving the trough more time to go negative...it's certainly a story we've heard before this winter...at the moment I think New England has a better shot with this storm. Very early though. If the Pacific piece of energy is stronger...like the GFS depicts...then there is more potential for a low pressure system track up the coast from the Gulf. I know the GFS shows it going out to sea right now, but I think there is plenty of time for this to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Late next week is going to be interesting. IMO the key to the next 10 days is the Pacific piece of energy that will move into California and the Southwest in the next few days. It's noticeably stronger and faster in the GFS, preventing Arctic energy from really digging. NYC area still gets a little snow from the arctic front/clipper in this scenario though. The Euro, on the other hand, keeps the Pacific energy pretty weak, allowing the arctic energy to really dig and giving the trough more time to go negative...it's certainly a story we've heard before this winter...at the moment I think New England has a better shot with this storm. Very early though. If the Pacific piece of energy is stronger...like the GFS depicts...then there is more potential for a low pressure system track up the coast from the Gulf. I know the GFS shows it going out to sea right now, but I think there is plenty of time for this to change. Let's just hope the Euro holds serve in an hour. Within the next couple runs, the Euro or GFS is going to cave to the other.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Let's just hope the Euro holds serve in an hour. Within the next couple runs, the Euro or GFS is going to cave to the other.... I hate saying the models are "caving" to each other when discussing a solution at something like 144 hours. That's not a model battle... that's just normal modelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I hate saying the models are "caving" to each other when discussing a solution at something like 144 hours. That's not a model battle... that's just normal modelling. That's true. They could and probably will in the end converge somewhere in the middle. To what degree and closer to which is the better question. That being said.....I really want the 00z euro to be similar to what we saw on the 12z euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does euro deliver again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does euro deliver again?Too early yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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