PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ok thanks. I saw on the NE forum they are talking about an ice storm threat on Tues/Wed. That would be kind of hard to believe given it would be during the day and it will be March by then, but I guess stranger things have happened If you look at 500mb ( 18k feet ) , it looks warm . But we are cold at 850 and 2m . We should prob trend colder that the Euro thinks . The GFS thinks so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Arctic high pressure to the north rules the entire 240 hr 12z Euro and all the overrunning events are going to be wintry precip threats. 100 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hopefully the Thursday storm defies the odds and comes up the coast. Probably slim chances as of now, but one can hope. Too early to worry about next week until it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 100 % This winter equals one giant persistence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Then the euro sets-up a snow storm friday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Then the euro sets-up a snow storm friday lolWhen hasn't the euro done that at day 10 this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This winter equals one giant persistence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This winter equals one giant persistence forecast. Textbook -epo, -pna, +ao, +nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This winter equals one giant persistence forecast. What's going to bring and end to this -EPO? Changing wavelengths as we transition to spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Textbook -epo, -pna, +ao, +nao Yes and as long as nothing deepens in the plains and stays weak while heading east , then you should do ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 When hasn't the euro done that at day 10 this winter? When haven't you been wrong about going against snow this February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 When haven't you been wrong about going against snow this February?Maybe once... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What's going to bring and end to this -EPO? Changing wavelengths as we transition to spring? The only thing that I know is that the models continue the -EPO into March. It has dominated the pattern for 2013, 2014, and the first two months of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wintry pattern on the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What's going to bring and end to this -EPO? Changing wavelengths as we transition to spring?Wavelengths have been shortening and will continue to, but the -epo just won't give up. Look at the north pac ssts, it's classic strong +pdo. That is what is sustaining the epo blocking imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 When hasn't the euro done that at day 10 this winter? When was the last time you positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 When was the last time you positive?You're right, I think the euro is correct, we are going to get a snowstorm next Friday. Now I'm positive and maybe that will make it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This winter will never end and it will be colder till may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SREF plumes are near 3 inches for LGA. Less than 9z. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150224&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap You're right, I think the euro is correct, we are going to get a snowstorm next Friday. Now I'm positive and maybe that will make it happen You downplay every event. How's that worked out for you this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This winter will never end and it will be colder till may I hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wavelengths have been shortening and will continue to, but the -epo just won't give up. Look at the north pac ssts, it's classic strong +pdo. That is what is sustaining the epo blocking imo Agree. That will have to dissipate before we see a true collapse of the -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's a big shame that this storm is not going to be a coastal storm. You can thank the northern stream not phasing in time and the ull to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SREF plumes are near 3 inches for LGA. Less than 9z. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150224&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap You downplay every event. How's that worked out for you this winter? When are you going to give up on Thursday? Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 When are you going to give up on Thursday? Friday? Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The only thing that I know is that the models continue the -EPO into March. It has dominated the pattern for 2013, 2014, and the first two months of 2015. 13.png 14.png 15.gif you can see why 13/14 was the snowiest one for us... in 2013 the trof was weaker and that favored new england and this year the trof is east and that favors new england. we were in the sweet spot for a while in jan/feb 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Agree. That will have to dissipate before we see a true collapse of the -EPO That's what I had in mind too. It's not going to go easily if thats the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 am i wrong or is not most of this sub-forum above their seasonal average for snowfall? ( i am sure there are some exceptions). you would think this is 97-98 reading this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 am i wrong or is not most of this sub-forum above their seasonal average for snowfall? ( i am sure there are some exceptions). you would think this is 97-98 reading this Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Can we get an all out significant snowstorm, it bothers me that most of our storms can't just stay all snow. Any chance with monday or will it have the potential to mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 you can see why 13/14 was the snowiest one for us... in 2013 the trof was weaker and that favored new england and this year the trof is east and that favors new england. we were in the sweet spot for a while in jan/feb 2014 Yeah, and the ridge-trough progression east this year put us in the sweet spot for historic cold this February. http://www.weatherwest.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/output_MSU19Z.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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