Capt. Adam Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z GFS is still OTS for Thursday At the surface, not insignificant shifts north with both the low pressure center and precip shield from 0Z run as of Thursday morning. 0Z run had center of low pressure east of NC/SC border, this run has it East of Hatteras. 0Z run kept precip south of Delmarva on Thursday morning, this run gets the precip through all of Delmarva and almost to Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Gfs and ggem went slighlty north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Gfs and ggem went slighlty north Is the GFS reaching S.J after barely reaching Delmarva the last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Is the GFS reaching S.J after barely reaching Delmarva the last run?No, these ticks north aren't going to help us much. We need bigger shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sun Mon - getting colder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Is the GFS reaching S.J after barely reaching Delmarva the last run? Close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Close gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png Alot of times the northern precip with such a progressive system can be overdone with model projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Flooding rain storm showing up late next week on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As long as the ground is still frozen that will be ok with me. If the surface melts/thaws before the rain there will be a lot of flooded basements. I think most of us would rather it runs right off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Flooding rain storm showing up late next week on GFS. I'm hard pressed to believe that scenario will unfold. The trend all Winter long has been for systems to trend weaker and colder inside of 5 days. Front end dump to ice/rain seems more likely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As long as the ground is still frozen that will be ok with me. If the surface melts/thaws before the rain there will be a lot of flooded basements. I think most of us would rather it runs right off. Give in one department and take in another. A frozen ground would greatly increase the river flooding risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Flooding rain storm showing up late next week on GFS. We can't keep dodging that bullet eventually it will happen. I just hope we don't have a mega cutter that ruins the epic snow season up in the New England mountains as I have been able to go up yet as I have to work every time it snows here. I like a coating to an inch type deal for Thursday for coastal areas. Monday Tuesday another mess at the coast and possibly number 2 event Nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Give in one department and take in another. A frozen ground would greatly increase the river flooding risk. Agreed and it could also still cause basement flooding, just not from ground water, rather the water just running off into the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm hard pressed to believe that scenario will unfold. The trend all Winter long has been for systems to trend weaker and colder inside of 5 days. Front end dump to ice/rain seems more likely IMO.If that epo breaks down its possible, but factors are against it, including the negative pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 If that epo breaks down its possible, but factors are against it, including the negative pnaPBGFI said it last night, with the AO and NAO positive, a -PNA along with -EPO favors New England. We are going to see the SE ridge popping up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Mon tues storm is trending colder once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 PBGFI said it last night, with the AO and NAO positive, a -PNA along with -EPO favors New England. We are going to see the SE ridge popping up again That SE ridge will get beaten down . Even when you see it at 500mb , the 850`s are cold , so any warm ups get muted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 PBGFI said it last night, with the AO and NAO positive, a -PNA along with -EPO favors New England. We are going to see the SE ridge popping up againThat is very possible, but that still wouldn't favor a large cutter. The EPO will keep supplying some pretty cold air into the eastern US, so it will be hard pressed to cut completely. Furthermore, the flow is still screaming, so most energy will likely stay sheared and unconsolidated in the center of the country. For a cutter, we need to get a pretty amped solution. If anything, with the PNA projected to dip further, I could see what we're seeing this week; Miller A's from the deep South and Gulf which then round the corner to hit NE as PB alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Mon tues storm is trending colder once again Not a shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 BTW very few patterns don`t favor NE over 40N . That said , there are a couple SWs next week that will make the argument that winter is not over . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That is very possible, but that still wouldn't favor a large cutter. The EPO will keep supplying some pretty cold air into the eastern US, so it will be hard pressed to cut completely. Furthermore, the flow is still screaming, so most energy will likely stay sheared and unconsolidated in the center of the country. For a cutter, we need to get a pretty amped solution. If anything, with the PNA projected to dip further, I could see what we're seeing this week; Miller A's from the deep South and Gulf which then round the corner to hit NE as PB alluded to.The thing that gets me is how strong that +PDO is, if you look at the North Pacific SSTS you would think we were in a moderate to strong El Nino, but ENSO is neutral right now. Very odd pattern for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro is really close for thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro is really close for thursday How close? Did it move N/W from the prior run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 For what it's worth LC thinks this could come up the coast Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm not near my computer right now but I guess the 12z euro was uneventful through day 10 by the lack of commentary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm not near my computer right now but I guess the 12z euro was uneventful through day 10 by the lack of commentary? Monday trended colder and Day 7 look for an Amarillo to AC track ( the center prob ends up over DC ) , that should trend colder as well . 2 events next week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Monday trended colder and Day 7 look for an Amarillo to AC track ( the center prob ends up over DC ) , that should trend colder as well . 2 events next week .Ok thanks. I saw on the NE forum they are talking about an ice storm threat on Tues/Wed. That would be kind of hard to believe given it would be during the day and it will be March by then, but I guess stranger things have happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm driving to Florida next Tuesday weather permitting...I want to dodge any frozen precipitation along the way...North Carolina saw some this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro says no to the mild day on monday, now brings ice/slop around nyc with a snow storm for sne Another slop storm on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Arctic high pressure to the north rules the entire 240 hr 12z Euro and all the overrunning events are going to be wintry precip threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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