MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Let's get those red colors in our neighbororhood ☺️ I wish but that's not going to happen. Every model has some light snow now for midweek.GGEM shows 4-8 inches for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 0z GGEM for the end of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 So many little disturbances near the coast; all would've benefited greatly from blocking. I hope Boston breaks the record though so I'm rooting for ticks west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Lets hope we get a little love from the EURO. Just coming out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Lets hope we get a little love from the EURO. Just coming out..... SILENCE,,,,,Guess NOT a good run... (lets see what tomm brings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SILENCE,,,,,Guess NOT a good run... (lets see what tomm brings) 0z Euro for thursday makes no advances towards our area, south and east as it has been. Early next week is still a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 probably climate change http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/1/014005 New metrics and evidence are presented that support a linkage between rapid Arctic warming, relative to Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, and more frequent high-amplitude (wavy) jet-stream configurations that favor persistent weather patterns. We find robust relationships among seasonal and regional patterns of weaker poleward thickness gradients, weaker zonal upper-level winds, and a more meridional flow direction. These results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm faster than elsewhere in response to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations, the frequency of extreme weather events caused by persistent jet-stream patterns will increase. There was also a recent paper just focusing on the record blocking pattern in the Pacific. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract Abstract The 2013–2014 California drought was initiated by an anomalous high-amplitude ridge system. The anomalous ridge was investigated using reanalysis data and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). It was found that the ridge emerged from continual sources of Rossby wave energy in the western North Pacific starting in late summer and subsequently intensified into winter. The ridge generated a surge of wave energy downwind and deepened further the trough over the northeast U.S., forming a dipole. The dipole and associated circulation pattern is not linked directly with either El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Pacific Decadal Oscillation; instead, it is correlated with a type of ENSO precursor. The connection between the dipole and ENSO precursor has become stronger since the 1970s, and this is attributed to increased greenhouse gas loading as simulated by the CESM. Therefore, there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013–2014 and the associated drought. February 16, 2015 The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge Returns; typical winter conditions still nowhere to be found in California Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The fall SST on the JMA keeps the same profile. Man it would be incredible if we pull that off for a 3rd straight year. Yeah, that would be amazing if it turns out to be correct. The latest Euro weeklies keep the record -EPO ridge in place for at least another 4 weeks. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/02/23/cooler-weather-ahead-but-not-much-rain-or-mountain-snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Man the thusday storm looks like a classic...too bad a little too far s/e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yawn, I think you're one of the few posters left still rooting for cold and snow. Spring is on the way. Most of the 5" thst fell here on Saturday is gone and bare spots are starting to show up along the highways. thats a cop out man..., we get winter for 4 months out of the year. March can have some of the best storms of the year. Its going to get warm and stay that way for a while, we can at least continue to be weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 thats a cop out man..., we get winter for 4 months out of the year. March can have some of the best storms of the year. Its going to get warm and stay that way for a while, we can at least continue to be weeniesExactly, by mid June I'll already check out historic blizzards on Wikipedia, I think we should all enjoy whatever winter we have left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Man the thusday storm looks like a classic...too bad a little too far s/e Sref doesn't want to budge. It's more amplified. .25+ gets passed NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 9z SREF plums are going up for Thursday. Over 4 inches now for LGA.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150224&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 9z SREF plums are going up for Thursday. Over 4 inches now for LGA. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150224&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap Even EWR is over 4"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The SREFs can be a useful tool, if you understand their biases. In general, only the SREF NMM members are worth much. The ARW and NMB members have a pronounced NW/wet bias with coastal storms. Averaging the NMM members from the past 2 SREF runs gives a mean of about 0.05" QPF at LGA, 0.1" at ISP and 0.2" on the Twin Forks. Ratios should be around 20:1. This site has a good objective snow ratio forecast based on NAM and GFS: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm 9z SREF plums are going up for Thursday. Over 4 inches now for LGA.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150224&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nice 12"+ storm for freakin' North Carolina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What did the NAM (i know i know) show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nice 12"+ storm for freakin' North Carolina... Just like last March What did the NAM (i know i know) show? Slight northward shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What did the NAM (i know i know) show? Nothing the SREFs are out of their mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nothing the SREFs are out of their mind. Nam made improvements at 500 and shifted slightly north but not there just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nam made improvements at 500 and shifted slightly north but not there just yet. Whatever blows up tomorrow completely effs us over otherwise this could've made it further north. Rare snowstorm for parts of coastal N.C/VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Whatever blows up tomorrow completely effs us over otherwise this could've made it further north. Rare snowstorm for parts of coastal N.C/VA That wave is def hurting our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z RGEM coming in more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z RGEM coming in more amplified RGEM has been good. This one is going to suck, if (most likely) miss it. Hopefully even if the coastal misses the energy hanging back can produce some light snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z RGEM coming in more amplified Now THAT, is interesting. Hasnt it been on a big roll lately?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I know people are focused on the first system for Thursday and rightly so but I think the system for next Tuesday has the best chance of delivering a widespread significant winter weather event. The 00z Euro delivered another pretty nasty ice storm, but at day 7-8 this will change 1000 times over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I know people are focused on the first system for Thursday and rightly so but I think the system for next Tuesday has the best chance of delivering a widespread significant winter weather event. The 00z Euro delivered another pretty nasty ice storm, but at day 7-8 this will change 1000 times over. 0z GGEM was similiar but slightly colder. I agree about the storm for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Look at H5 around 36 hours on all guidance. This is the kind of sneaky storm that comes a bit further north on occasion. That is a southern stream wave... not the northern stream polar stuff we've been dealing with. I wouldn't completely dismiss the SREF outliers in this case... whereas for most of the year I have ignored them. The southern wave is on the downstream side of the LW trof. You always gotta watch that for more amplification than modeled. I would be cautiously, yet hopefully excited if I were in SNJ. But I think this has a little room to ride up even further. Low likelyhood however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z GFS is still OTS for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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