tomcatct Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm burned out weather wise. Haven't had a break from tracking in over a month. I'll still keep an eye on things but I'm just about ready for Spring.You can forget about those late night euro runs once you tie the knot....that : Jake from state farm : stuff ain't gonna fly after she has her ring..congrats and good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Sref another bump north for thursday storm FWIW, NWS now forecasts a 30% chance of light snow for NYC and east Thursday night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 FWIW, NWS now forecasts a 30% chance of light snow for NYC and east Thursday night into Friday. NAM at hour 84 looked as if it wasn't too far away from showing a possibility for Friday. If Thursday morning storm stays out to sea, I wonder if Friday would have a better chance. I believe a met here last night mentioned that Friday coming closer was a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Don't give up on this week we're not that far from something light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM at hour 84 looked as if it wasn't too far away from showing a possibility for Friday. If Thursday morning storm stays out to sea, I wonder if Friday would have a better chance. I believe a met here last night mentioned that Friday coming closer was a possibility. Or better yet, the Thu/Fri systmes phase...that would be the outcome we would really want, does not look like it is too far away from that outcome either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The -EPO/+PDO combination continues to be really impressive. Old GEFS forecast centered on 3/5 New Forecast 3/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM at hour 84 looked as if it wasn't too far away from showing a possibility for Friday. If Thursday morning storm stays out to sea, I wonder if Friday would have a better chance. I believe a met here last night mentioned that Friday coming closer was a possibility. It was SnowGoose that said not to be surprised if the storm on Friday ends up coming way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Hoping Thursday night is dry. Planning to propose. Congrats YanksFan/IsentropicLift!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Inverted trough is really close to LI on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Check out the sim radar on the hi res nam for hour 60.Pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Don't give up on this week we're not that far from something light. As you know, it's all about the trend at this point. I'm skeptical, but we'll see. Being that we're approaching the end of Winter, I'll gladly take a modest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Trouble is not that far a stretch- atm/imo http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif OPC 48hr http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif 72 hr window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Hoping Thursday night is dry. Planning to propose. Well there goes the rest of your life. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On Wednesday per 18z GFS, snow reaches around Riverhead (long island)EAST. West compared to 12z GFS where it didn't even snow near Orient (Long Island) 27 miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 18Z 4K NAM ( i know i know) has a 995 MB low off the coast of South Carolina. For thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Gfs at 165 hours lools like this past storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If we have overrunning sleet, snow, freezing rain Sunday night into Monday morning, that could potentially be a travel nightmare for rush hour. It goes to all rain by Monday afternoon, but before that could be real ugly if it really does happen that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The -EPO/+PDO combination continues to be really impressive. Old GEFS forecast centered on 3/5 gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png New Forecast 3/5 gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.png It's clear the +PDO is going nowhere anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Question for PB GFI, If we head into March and flip to a -EPO/WPO along with a -PNA and +AO/+NAO, how do you think that will play out as far as snow and cold given we will be into March at that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Question for PB GFI, If we head into March and flip to a -EPO/WPO along with a -PNA and +AO/+NAO, how do you think that will play out as far as snow and cold given we will be into March at that point? I posted yesterday that I only thought week 1 in March was above normal Chris just showed you how fast the GFS warming got reversed by march 5th. So that warmth got muted . That SST profile continues to keep the heights high in the EP region. My guess is that any pull back in March is short lived . Forget blocking we haven't had it on 3 years but I think March is below normal. I can only see cold this far away. Snow is always a dice roll on the coastal plain at 40 N. That said..... There are 2 chances of snow over the next 7 days. Thrs should be light if we can trend this just a little further N and W and I like the sunday monday system as I think the models will start to cool that off. There is just too much HP available and we are in a cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I posted yesterday that I only thought week 1 in March was above normal Chris just showed you how fast the GFS warming got reversed by march 5th. So that warmth got muted . That SST profile continues to keep the heights high in the EP region. My guess is that any pull back in March is short lived . Forget blocking we haven't had it on 3 years but I think March is below normal. I can only see cold this far away. Snow is always a dice roll on the coastal plain at 40 N. That said..... There are 2 chances of snow over the next 7 days. Thrs should be light if we can trend this just a little further N and W and I like the sunday monday system as I think the models will start to cool that off. There is just too much HP available and we are in a cold pattern. The -PNA along with a -EPO would be an interesting pattern I would think. The -EPO doesn't want to give up because of the +PDO imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The -PNA along with a -EPO would be an interesting pattern I would think. The -EPO doesn't want to give up because of the +PDO imo... Interesting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I posted yesterday that I only thought week 1 in March was above normal Chris just showed you how fast the GFS warming got reversed by march 5th. So that warmth got muted . That SST profile continues to keep the heights high in the EP region. My guess is that any pull back in March is short lived . Forget blocking we haven't had it on 3 years but I think March is below normal. I can only see cold this far away. Snow is always a dice roll on the coastal plain at 40 N. That said..... There are 2 chances of snow over the next 7 days. Thrs should be light if we can trend this just a little further N and W and I like the sunday monday system as I think the models will start to cool that off. There is just too much HP available and we are in a cold pattern. It has its own Wikipedia page. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge Ridiculously Resilient Ridge From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge," sometimes shortened to "Triple R" or "RRR," is the nickname given to a persistent region of atmospheric high pressure that occurred over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2013-2014. This anomalous atmospheric feature disrupted the North Pacific storm track during the winters of 2012-2013, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, resulting in extremely dry and warm conditions in California and along much of the West Coast.[1] The Ridge comprises the western half of atmospheric ridge-trough sequence associated with the highly amplified "North American dipole" pattern, which brought persistent anomalous cold and precipitation to the eastern half of North America[2] during 2014 in addition to record-breaking warmth and drought conditions in California.[3] The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge is characterized by broad region of positive geopotential height anomalies on monthly to annual timescales. This persistent ridging acts to "block" the prevailing mid-latitude Westerlies, shifting the storm track northward and suppressing extratropical cyclone (winter storm) activity along the West Coast of the United States. Such a pattern is similar to—but of greater magnitude and longevity than—atmospheric configurations noted during previous California droughts. The "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" nickname was coined in December 2013 on the California Weather Blog.[4] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If we have overrunning sleet, snow, freezing rain Sunday night into Monday morning, that could potentially be a travel nightmare for rush hour. It goes to all rain by Monday afternoon, but before that could be real ugly if it really does happen that is Good thing we don't forecast temperatures a week out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro weeklies are cold throughout March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The -PNA along with a -EPO would be an interesting pattern I would think. The -EPO doesn't want to give up because of the +PDO imo...It should be a very interesting pattern. I've always looked at them as inverse of each other, especially with the sst's correlations with the negative EPO provides the the heights while help the PNA to build a Ridge into Western Canada and the opposite holding true of the positive EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It should be a very interesting pattern. I've always looked at them as inverse of each other, especially with the sst's correlations with the negative EPO provides the the heights while help the PNA to build a Ridge into Western Canada and the opposite holding true of the positive EPO.But I should also say with the strongly positive PDO and the neutral ENSO, it'll be very interesting to see this combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The -PNA along with a -EPO would be an interesting pattern I would think. The -EPO doesn't want to give up because of the +PDO imo... The -PNA along with a -EPO would be an interesting pattern I would think. The -EPO doesn't want to give up because of the +PDO imo... NEG EPO NEG PNA patterns without blocking would favor New England. Gradients work like in 94 but you could use blocking at our latitude . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It has its own Wikipedia page. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge Ridiculously Resilient Ridge From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge," sometimes shortened to "Triple R" or "RRR," is the nickname given to a persistent region of atmospheric high pressure that occurred over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2013-2014. This anomalous atmospheric feature disrupted the North Pacific storm track during the winters of 2012-2013, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, resulting in extremely dry and warm conditions in California and along much of the West Coast.[1] The Ridge comprises the western half of atmospheric ridge-trough sequence associated with the highly amplified "North American dipole" pattern, which brought persistent anomalous cold and precipitation to the eastern half of North America[2] during 2014 in addition to record-breaking warmth and drought conditions in California.[3] The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge is characterized by broad region of positive geopotential height anomalies on monthly to annual timescales. This persistent ridging acts to "block" the prevailing mid-latitude Westerlies, shifting the storm track northward and suppressing extratropical cyclone (winter storm) activity along the West Coast of the United States. Such a pattern is similar to—but of greater magnitude and longevity than—atmospheric configurations noted during previous California droughts. The "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" nickname was coined in December 2013 on the California Weather Blog.[4] The fall SST on the JMA keeps the same profile. Man it would be incredible if we pull that off for a 3rd straight year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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