CIK62 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I seemed to have read recently that the +AMO phase had 15 years to go. However short term around here the JMA Mar.-May 90 day outlook did have below normal SST's near New England/Mid-Atlantic, as well as below normal 2mT's and above normal precip. despite or because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This evenings SREFS look somewhat interesting for Thursday. . There is a distinct lean NW with the SW . We need to see if this can trend NW over the next day or 2 in the guidance. The Euro ensembles clustered the SLP at OBX but moved ENE. I think we are not that far away to bring this N but it will need a little work and the next 36 hours will show you if its coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Our snowpack is largely gone by March 10, which seems to coincide with the weeklies showing above normal temps. for the second week of March, before falling again. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022218&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=006 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022218&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This evenings SREFS look somewhat interesting for Thursday. . There is a distinct lean NW with the SW . We need to see if this can trend NW over the next day or 2 in the guidance. The Euro ensembles clustered the SLP at OBX but moved ENE. I think we are not that far away to bring this N but it will need a little work and the next 36 hours will show you if its coming. Well, keep us posted. You and DM have done very well this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 A lot of energy all over the map for next week. Something is most likely going to pop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I would just love to know when a true warm up some, not an up and down kind. Im guessing past the middle of march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Our snowpack is largely gone by March 10, which seems to coincide with the weeklies showing above normal temps. for the second week of March, before falling again. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022218&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=006 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022218&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=384 Those are very, very speculative maps...I mean use them strictly for the most informal guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If the CFS is right, you can forget about a warm March. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150222.201503.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS is close for Thursday night into Friday. Looks like the southern Jersey shore barely gets brushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS is close for Thursday night into Friday. Looks like the southern Jersey shore barely gets brushed. Every model is ticking north for the midweek storm and the end of the week storm. Getting interesting. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS is close for Thursday night into Friday. Looks like the southern Jersey shore barely gets brushed. Yea...getting closer. Not too far off shore on this past run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yea...getting closer. Not too far off shore on this past run Need a quicker phase. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS is a cold and really active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Any info if GGEM is showing any systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Any info if GGEM is showing any systems? Ticked north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Any info if GGEM is showing any systems? GGEM has us on the edge of the coastal on Thursday with some light snow. It also brings back the potential Miller A storm for next weekend (Sunday) moving it right through the benchmark, but it's a fast mover. I do not like hyping anything unless there are several models on board. Right now, the GGEM is alone for the weekend storm but if the Euro jumps on this, I'd say it's probably for real. UKMET has no part of it....actually has us dry and milder next Saturday-Sunday and seems like an outlier. I think we stay cold, not sure about the storm at this time. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GGEM has us on the edge of the coastal on Thursday with some light snow. It also brings back the potential Miller A storm for next weekend (Sunday) moving it right through the benchmark, but it's a fast mover. I do not like hyping anything unless there are several models on board. Right now, the GGEM is alone for the weekend storm but if the Euro jumps on this, I'd say it's probably for real. UKMET has no part of it....actually has us dry and milder next Saturday-Sunday and seems like an outlier. I think we stay cold, not sure about the storm at this time. WX/PT any word on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 any word on the euro?euro is out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 any word on the euro? Euro has a system at 168 hrs out but it is on the warmer side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro has a system at 168 hrs out but it is on the warmer side... ecmwf_qpf_th500_neng_29.png Thought you can't post the euro here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 36"+ is a better call imo i am still waiting for the 40"+ from the NAM (12 hours before the blizzard?) to verify! But in al honesty, would be great to end the season with a bang, I think we get at least brushed by something this week. As snow88 alluded to, tons of energy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not buying into the GFS solution for thursday/friday on the 06Z run, how many times have we seen it snow near Cape Hatteras near MARCH 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro has a system at 168 hrs out but it is on the warmer side... ecmwf_qpf_th500_neng_29.png This solution is definitely wrong with the still -EPO pattern still in place. Toss it. The 6Z GFS has the right idea, which is another snow to ice high end advisory event for early next week. Go with that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 6z GFS ensembles are a little wetter than it`s 0z run for Thrs . It is a tick N so lets see if this trend continues . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 FWIW....latest SREFS have a significant bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It looks to me that the models are starting to develop a SWFE pattern for March. Hope we are on the right side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 In a general sense, the 12z NAM looks nice for the Thursday event, 50/50 low, arctic banana high well to the west, and a low coming out of the gulf. But it seems late Feb/March has become the mid atlantic/SE US snow time (like last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The system to watch will be the one right after this . Sun Mon timetable . The THRS system trend could further N and could produce something very light on the coastal plain . The pattern looks much better for the system after this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The system to watch will be the one right after this . Sun Mon timetable . The THRS system trend could further N and could produce something very light on the coastal plain . The pattern looks much better for the system after this one . That Sun into Monday storm looks to be a SWFE as of right now. Lets just hope we are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 9z SREF members for midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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