SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 3:00 PM, PB GFI said: The system to watch will be the one right after this . Sun Mon timetable . The THRS system trend could further N and could produce something very light on the coastal plain . The pattern looks much better for the system after this one . If you like rain then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 3:24 PM, SnoSki14 said: If you like rain then yes. I'm going back to this post at this time next week. Euro has close to a foot of snowcover for the area next week. GFS and Euro aren't that far apart. It's a SWFE with a high coming down from Canada. Too early to say if you like rain then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Larry Cosgrove just said this about the midweek storm. Quote If that closed low in Ontario is deeper and a bit more west, then shortwave #2 comes north up the coast. ECMWF and UKMET should have best handle on Wed/Thurs sequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 2:50 PM, Zelocita Weather said: In a general sense, the 12z NAM looks nice for the Thursday event, 50/50 low, arctic banana high well to the west, and a low coming out of the gulf. But it seems late Feb/March has become the mid atlantic/SE US snow time (like last year). Flow is too fast. ++AO and ++NAO means we are fighting a losing battle. I agree with PB that the best shot for us will be early next week with a SWFE where a ++AO and ++NAO often work strongly to our benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 3:24 PM, SnoSki14 said: If you like rain then yes. huh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 3:26 PM, Snow88 said: I'm going back to this post at this time next week. Euro has close to a foot of snowcover for the area next week. GFS and Euro aren't that far apart. It's a SWFE with a high coming down from Canada. Too early to say if you like rain then yes. Somehow, I think you'll both end up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 3:39 PM, Mophstymeo said: Somehow, I think you'll both end up right. Mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 3:40 PM, Snow88 said: Mix? Your version is better than winter's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 7:42 PM, snowman19 said: So Cisco at the climate prediction center is totally off his rocker with that discussion? And typhoon tip posted the epo projections, they have it going positive within the next 7 days On 2/22/2015 at 7:47 PM, pazzo83 said: Someone's in denial as to our geography. Spring's coming in March, get over it. The snow will melt. The plants will bloom. The sundresses will be out. Happens e'ry year. PB has absolutely nailed the temps outlook all winter long for what its worth. Hes not saying it wont warm up, but he is saying to expect a below average March. I generally agree with him just based on his track record reading the pattern thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think the European will come east as HP keeps pulsing through the lakes . ( However we are coming to the end of this pattern ) . So this should probably be the last one that come S , before we pull back for a week and before we re fire it again for a few weeks . Eventually one of these are going to cut , I just don`t think it is this one . Here is the GEM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 3:26 PM, Snow88 said: I'm going back to this post at this time next week. Euro has close to a foot of snowcover for the area next week. GFS and Euro aren't that far apart. It's a SWFE with a high coming down from Canada. Too early to say if you like rain then yes. If it's a true SWFE then it'll be a snow to rain solution. Too bad we can't get those lows to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 3:34 PM, jbenedet said: Flow is too fast. ++AO and ++NAO means we are fighting a losing battle. I agree with PB that the best shot for us will be early next week with a SWFE where a ++AO and ++NAO often work strongly to our benefit.If anything happens sunday into monday it looks like mix or snow to rain as temps go milder next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 10:45 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The last -AMO phase the NAO was very positive, but the previous one I think it was more negative. As a whole though the -AMO pfavors more severe cold outbreaks and winters but less snowy ones. that was the case in the 80's into the early 90's. Very few "big ones" and some notable arctic outbreaks, Dec 80, 82 Jan 85 On 2/22/2015 at 9:49 PM, snowman19 said: We are heading into a long term negative phase of the AMO. This may portend less atlantic hurricanes in the future Agree-amazed that we have had so few the last 5-8 years...bathwater AMO and little activity On 2/22/2015 at 10:29 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It also tends to cause less snowy winters here because it produces less big storms with colder waters. 1980's coming back!!! On 2/22/2015 at 10:39 PM, bluewave said: The +AMO favors a -AO/-NAO. 500.gif also amazed we've had no -NAO the last 2-3 years with the +AMO at it's peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:13 PM, snowman19 said: If anything happens sunday into monday it looks like mix or snow to rain as temps go milder next week That all depends on where the low is located and the high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:06 PM, SnoSki14 said: If it's a true SWFE then it'll be a snow to rain solution. Too bad we can't get those lows to come up the coast. Too early to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:15 PM, Snow88 said: That all depends on where the low is located and the high to the north. Gee ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Much weaker system on the 12z GFS so far. Leaves behind most of the energy in the southwest US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SWFE stands for South West Flow Event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:19 PM, IsentropicLift said: Much weaker system on the 12z GFS so far. Leaves behind most of the energy in the southwest US. Isn't that one of GFS's biases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:21 PM, White Gorilla said: Isn't that one of GFS's biases? Euro often does that-I don't think it's a bias of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:20 PM, White Gorilla said: SWFE stands for South West Flow Event? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:28 PM, Snow88 said: Yes Merci Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 0.25"+ of mostly rain on Monday and then about an inch of mostly snow on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If the precip comes in earlier Monday it would have a chance of giving a decent front end dump. By Noon temperature profiles would only support rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wednesday could end up being a lot like this past Saturday. Thumping to ice and then rain. But this is so far out, it will change a bazillion times between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z GGEM is a little close to the coast for Thursday but not enough to bring any precip onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:41 PM, IsentropicLift said: If the precip comes in earlier Monday it would have a chance of giving a decent front end dump. By Noon temperature profiles would only support rain. Next Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:47 PM, seanick said: Next Monday?March 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:43 PM, IsentropicLift said: Wednesday could end up being a lot like this past Saturday. Thumping to ice and then rain. But this is so far out, it will change a bazillion times between now and then.sunday it never changed to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:02 PM, SomeWeatherGeek said: sunday it never changed to rainLets not argue over what an operational model is showing for March 4th on February 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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