USCG RS Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 8:51 PM, snowman19 said: Do the ssts drive the pattern or does the pattern drive the ssts? Huge debate there. But as a sweeping generality +pdo does support more +pna than not, but not always...There is a huge debate there yes. I tend to believe the sst's drive the pattern as to me the sst's help to create the pressures governing the oscillations, however, there has been some good evidence provided to the contrary as well. Of course the Walker Circulation has a lot to do with ENSO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 8:51 PM, snowman19 said: Do the ssts drive the pattern or does the pattern drive the ssts? Huge debate there. But as a sweeping generality +pdo does support more +pna than not, but not always... IMO the SST drive the pattern . The Pacific is so large it's temp profiles throughout its different regions determine upper air patterns downstream . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I wouldn't give up on Thursday storm. Beautiful day today, instead of arguing you guys should go and enjoy it. Can't wait till we bottom out to 9 F tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 8:57 PM, UnionWeatherGuy said: I wouldn't give up on Thursday storm. Beautiful day today, instead of arguing you guys should go and enjoy it. Can't wait till we bottom out to 9 F tonight It's only a discussion, not arguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 8:56 PM, PB GFI said: IMO the SST drive the pattern . The Pacific is so large it's temp profiles throughout its different regions determine upper air patterns downstream .Yes, and to me the same holds true with PDO. Sst's help to drive the Aleutian LP placement and consequently all the implications which follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 8:59 PM, EasternLI said: It's only a discussion, not arguing Never saw a discussion turn into "You wouldn't know that because you were stuck in PR for the last 3 months. ", but ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 8:59 PM, USCG RS said: Yes, and to me the same holds true with PDO. Sst's help to drive the Aleutian LP placement and consequently all the implications which follow. Agree brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I'm not going to bother responding to your unsolicited attack Paul, but I guess we'll see where we stand on March 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 8:57 PM, UnionWeatherGuy said: I wouldn't give up on Thursday storm. Beautiful day today, instead of arguing you guys should go and enjoy it. Can't wait till we bottom out to 9 F tonight The really cold air will start to come in tomorrow so you'll probably achieve that 9 degree reading tomorrow evening with the low for the day at midnight...tonight should mostly stay in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 9:01 PM, UnionWeatherGuy said: Never saw a discussion turn into "You wouldn't know that because you were stuck in PR for the last 3 months. ", but ok. LOL, That's true .....But this is NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 At least were not alone NE thread is in turmoil as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 8:56 PM, PB GFI said: IMO the SST drive the pattern . The Pacific is so large it's temp profiles throughout its different regions determine upper air patterns downstream . Oceans cover 71% of the earth's surface, that leads me to believe that they would play a rather large roll in atmospheric patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 9:06 PM, pazzo83 said: I'm not going to bother responding to your unsolicited attack Paul, but I guess we'll see where we stand on March 31st. Chris I posted an opinion. And you responded that I was In denial. That was the first unsolicited attack brother. If i came back to hard then I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 In addition to the record breaking recent +PDO values, the Klotzbach and Gray AMO had the lowest January value since 1994. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/564878796960968704 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 9:44 PM, bluewave said: In addition to the record breaking recent +PDO values, the Klotzbach and Gray AMO had the lowest January value since 1994. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/564878796960968704 We are heading into a long term negative phase of the AMO. This may portend less atlantic hurricanes in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 9:49 PM, snowman19 said: We are heading into a long term negative phase of the AMO. This may portend less atlantic hurricanes in the futureThe same as the PDO is about a 20-30 year oscillation, so is the AMO. Hopefully you are correct with the hurricanes, but the mesoscale effects remain to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 9:55 PM, USCG RS said: The same as the PDO is about a 20-30 year oscillation, so is the AMO. Hopefully you are correct with the hurricanes, but the mesoscale effects remain to be seen.I read some research suggesting that -AMO may favor -NAO/-AO, but there was no direct link besides those oscillations being negative more often during long term -AMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Can we talk about the euro ensembles for Thursday? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 10:03 PM, mranger48 said: Can we talk about the euro ensembles for Thursday? Sent from my iPhone They cluster at OBX but the head east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 10:03 PM, mranger48 said: Can we talk about the euro ensembles for Thursday? Sent from my iPhone Way south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 9:58 PM, snowman19 said: I read some research suggesting that -AMO may favor -NAO/-AO, but there was no direct link besides those oscillations being negative more often during long term -AMOIt's still not very well understood, just like the PDO and ENSO are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Do not be surprised if the storm Friday ends up coming way north...the problem right now is the big low off Canada being a suppressor but we've seen all winter those lifting out faster than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 9:49 PM, snowman19 said: We are heading into a long term negative phase of the AMO. This may portend less atlantic hurricanes in the future It also tends to cause less snowy winters here because it produces less big storms with colder waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 10:28 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Do not be surprised if the storm Friday ends up coming way north...the problem right now is the big low off Canada being a suppressor but we've seen all winter those lifting out faster than forecast. It's something to watch for sure. We've already seen huge swings in the models under 2 days so it wouldn't surprise me if they do so again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 9:58 PM, snowman19 said: I read some research suggesting that -AMO may favor -NAO/-AO, but there was no direct link besides those oscillations being negative more often during long term -AMO The +AMO favors a -AO/-NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 10:39 PM, bluewave said: The +AMO favors a -AO/-NAO.I apologize, I guess I was mistaken, I read the article years ago. If that's the case, it's bad news going into the future because we are going into a negative AMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 10:42 PM, snowman19 said: I apologize, I guess I was mistaken, I read the article years ago. If that's the case, it's bad news going into the future because we are going into a negative AMO The last -AMO phase the NAO was very positive, but the previous one I think it was more negative. As a whole though the -AMO pfavors more severe cold outbreaks and winters but less snowy ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 10:42 PM, snowman19 said: I apologize, I guess I was mistaken, I read the article years ago. If that's the case, it's bad news going into the future because we are going into a negative AMOHere's some useful info and research on the AMO I found a year or so back. http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/amo.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 10:31 PM, SnoSki14 said: It's something to watch for sure. We've already seen huge swings in the models under 2 days so it wouldn't surprise me if they do so again. I count four close misses on the 18z GFS: Miss 1 at 24 hrs (to our south) Miss 2 at 66 hrs (to our north) Miss 3 at 87 hrs (to our south) Miss 4 at 117 hrs (to our south) Then it looks like it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On 2/22/2015 at 8:48 PM, PB GFI said: Yawn. You are so bad at this. I crushed this entire winter. I've hit patterns and storms for the most part all winter. You wouldn't know that because you were stuck in PR for the last 3 months. Maybe someone will fill you in What you are seeing are pressures in the EP region. The NEG does not disappear it retrogrades like I said. Which goes exactly to what I said why week 1 in march is warm. So thank you for proving my point from the post above Because of the SST profile it will come back . You just had an SOI Burst so by day 10 you will probably see a ridge on the EC In the means That's another reason why I said week 1 in march is above normal. What else can I help you with. No bs. Pb has been on fire this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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