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End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015


Allsnow

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Figured we start a thread for the end of the month as next week looks active, then a possible pattern change going into early March. Ens continue to show a active winter pattern for the next two weeks. Miller B threat around the 26th and possible bigger threat next weekend. Lets discuss!

 

 

February stats 2015 so far

           Temp departure           Monthly snowfall

Nyc       -9.6                              7.9

Lga       -9.7                              10.9

jfk         -8.8                               8.9

ewr     -10.1                               9.1

bdr      -11.1                              17.2

isp       -9.9                                10.8

 

No station has had a positive departure day this month.

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Looking at the 00Z Euro run keeps it frigid through the whole run. I could see the frigid pattern going easily through 2/3rds if not all of March.  I think we have a -12 departure March with tons of snowfall for LI to Boston.  The +PNA and -EPO are locked in for several more weeks at least.  I bet April has a strong -NAO once the PNA and EPO flip making it a very chilly to cold April.  The -NAO would be due to the neutral QBO.

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That euro run is nice 6-7 days out. Could end up being the storm everyone wants to end the season with. Or you know, 1-2 inches here and 1-2 feet in Boston, lol.

After its collosial busts this winter and what it just did yesterday/today. I don't trust a damn thing the euro shows at all
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The shortwaves diving sharply southeast from Canada take a while to mature and develope a solid precipitation field on the NW side, we've done well with many miller B's in the past but as we saw last week, it doesn't matter if the storm is in a perfect spot if it comes from an unfavorable trajectory. You want the low to develope quickly and be moving NE already before it reaches out longitude.

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