NJwinter23 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 People seem to be forgetting this week's storm was modeled to be an inland runner 4-5 days out. That was actually when it was 6-7 days out...everything trended southeast by day 4...and then from there they caught onto the earlier wave slated for Tuesday morning that ended up giving the snow... I went back and looked at old euro runs back to the 11th to come up with all that. Look, I was in the same boat yesterday, saw the similarities and doubted the cutter idea, but this is trending in the wrong direction and the pieces are coming together by day 3-4 now. So it's not looking good here one has to reasonably admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think that this is part of several step process of some for dealing with it. Step 1. Denial Step 2. Bargaining? I mean what can we realistically trend this toward now (In a wintery way) just hoping for 33-35F rain instead of upper 40's? Personally now that pack has peaked, and it's nearing End of Feb, Melt it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That was actually when it was 6-7 days out...everything trended southeast by day 4...and then from there they caught onto the earlier wave slated for Tuesday morning that ended up giving the snow... I went back and looked at old euro runs back to the 11th to come up with all that. Look, I was in the same boat yesterday, saw the similarities and doubted the cutter idea, but this is trending in the wrong direction and the pieces are coming together by day 3-4 now. So it's not looking good here one has to reasonably admit. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Agree.You already posted your gut feelings on this today. No flipping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 lol into thinking that by aligning with Kevin = connecting with some super social magnet whose very presence will spread the word to millions. I will like your FB page for zero beers. Tell me how to find it. It's in my sig. No I don't expect a couple posts by Kevin to garner me thousands of hits, or hell even a hundred. But considering most of my closest family/friends are not local, just trying to be creative for getting the ball rolling to get the word spread to some locals. It's not like my FB blog is some sort of serious business venture anyway. In any case, we'll see how things trend...but I still think if the main surface low tracks anywhere close to where modeled back in PA and NY, no amount of snowpack is going to keep most of us below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You already posted your gut feelings on this today. No flippingWhen presented with new evidence, someone isn't allowed to change their mind? Seems very scientific. Goal posts narrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 People seem to be forgetting this week's storm was modeled to be an inland runner 4-5 days out. GFS from last Thursday (06Z) had BOS at 35º with an inch of rain today. I guess that's more than 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z JMA is warm and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You already posted your gut feelings on this today. No flipping Adjust your thoughts as more concrete data comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just got your invite after I liked them lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Even the UKMET is E with a solid 6-12", Kev - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Adjust your thoughts as more concrete data comes in.Exactly . As the GFS and gefs have trended colder since 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's in my sig. No I don't expect a couple posts by Kevin to garner me thousands of hits, or hell even a hundred. But considering most of my closest family/friends are not local, just trying to be creative for getting the ball rolling to get the word spread to some locals. It's not like my FB blog is some sort of serious business venture anyway. "liked" and passing the word along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You already posted your gut feelings on this today. No flipping On the bright side, everything started trending to garbage yesterday after I spoke out about favoring a colder solution...one can hope I just jinxed things again in the opposite direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Could be a take some, give some next 8 days... This system takes, then the UKMETs super clipper D6 brings havoc back to the upper MA/NE.. Been the year of the super clipper -- anyone dare to doubt it? The Euro/GGEM/NAVGEM all bring it down, but as usual ...the UKMET is the most amplified for it's latter middle range period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Could be a take some, give some next 8 days... This system takes, then the UKMETs super clipper D6 brings havoc back to the upper MA/NE.. Been the year of the super clipper -- anyone dare to doubt it? The Euro/GGEM/NAVGEM all bring it down, but as usual ...the UKMET is the most amplified for it's latter middle range period. Would suck if this winter pulled a 2011-truncation just before the grand daddy of records fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Am I misreading or is the 12z GFS and Euro giving interior SNE about 12 hours between 0C and 5C (32F-41F) at the surface. Is this a meltdown? Should there be any meltdowns going on over this? I can only get the 24 hr panels on the Euro so maybe something nasty happens between 96 and 120... but unless it is really spectacular is it worth the anxiety? I'm guilty of throwing in a few sarcastic space wasters today, but it seems that we are talking about a pretty paltry warm up on both the Euro and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Am I misreading or is the 12z GFS and Euro giving interior SNE about 12 hours between 0C and 5C (32F-41F) at the surface. Is this a meltdown? Should there be any meltdowns going on over this? I can only get the 24 hr panels on the Euro so maybe something nasty happens between 96 and 120... but unless it is really spectacular is it worth the anxiety? I'm guilty of throwing in a few sarcastic space wasters today, but it seems that we are talking about a pretty paltry warm up on both the Euro and the GFS. My Euro data has ORH going up to 47F. Drops 1/2" of rain and less than 2" of snow. Just what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Am I misreading or is the 12z GFS and Euro giving interior SNE about 12 hours between 0C and 5C (32F-41F) at the surface. Is this a meltdown? Should there be any meltdowns going on over this? I can only get the 24 hr panels on the Euro so maybe something nasty happens between 96 and 120... but unless it is really spectacular is it worth the anxiety? I'm guilty of throwing in a few sarcastic space wasters today, but it seems that we are talking about a pretty paltry warm up on both the Euro and the GFS. People are too orgasmified in wintry drug pump orgy right now; any, ANY mere semblance of distraction is like fearing being told no right as the trigger is firing... And paltry warm up threatens the ecstatic joy of this period of enabled obsession... Lot's of metaphors available - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro brings 2m temps >40F into Quebec by 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Can't see what you mets can see (don't pay the price for non-free info), but will go with the higher temps... just hope the QPF is much lower.... But I think I'll wait for the GFS to come back on board with warmer temps before I'm completely convinced. After all, isn't the GFS supposed to be biased toward warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro ensemble much stronger and farther northwest. The rain is coming and the torch very well may be too. Hope people are able to deal with it without melting down as fast as their snow packs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro ensemble much stronger and farther northwest. The rain is coming and the torch very well may be too. Hope people are able to deal with it without melting down as fast as their snow packs. Works for me. The further west, the less the rain threat out this way. Precip will go where the best forcing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like the ensemble was faster comparing the op and EC. Also maybe a hair weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro ensemble much stronger and farther northwest. The rain is coming and the torch very well may be too. Hope people are able to deal with it without melting down as fast as their snow packs. There's an exceedingly geeky experiment in that... This has been the longest stretch of continuous cold and powder pack I can remember. I was talking to the folks at the office, how the actual water content of the snow is comparatively low, and that if rained and got warm it would shrink dramatically inside of day. Oh no - now we get to have semantic debate about what constitutes 'dramatic'... If it got to 40F and rained an inch, my current 40" pack is 20 ? The upshot is that when it freeze harder than rock, and that blizzard hits later next week, than the real dystopia sets in ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looked like the op was stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 this event is making me sad , this is the time the models start trending SE though, seen it before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Figured I'd post this again. he just wrote this a little while ago for those that missed it Ryan's blog: As for what will happen with this storm I think odds favor a weaker storm (more like the GFS) which would bring a period of snow followed by icing with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Ground temperatures are cold enough that ice would be an issue on the roads. Most of the GFS ensemble members show this kind of scenario. Bottom line – watch forecasts for this weekend closely. A bit of snow, ice, and rain all appear likely. Hopefully we can avoid getting a big thaw in here – a more gradual thaw is definitely preferable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro ensemble much stronger and farther northwest. The rain is coming and the torch very well may be too. Hope people are able to deal with it without melting down as fast as their snow packs. Euro appears to have very little front end for CT as well, outside perhaps the NW hills. Good thing though is that if it is that far west, SNE really misses out on the heavy precip which will help minimize the mess in areas with deep deep pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What's this stuff about a blizzard next week? Seriously being discussed this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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