78Blizzard Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Tim Kelly said the rain/snow line would be around the pike. None of the on-air mets that I just saw were forecasting all rain around here, nor were they hyping the rain/flood factor. It's 4 days out, so maybe that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 As early as hour 30 you can see the changes on the Euro with regard to the system for tommorrow tracking further West. It's helping to pump up heights to the North of the track and enhance the Western Atlantic ridge even more. Still early but you can already see what looks to be a shift towards a less progressive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GEFS are relatively strung out compared to some of these runs, but still introduce ice and rain to all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like the Euro is heading towards Detroit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just as I suspected, the Euro is coming in more amped up and further West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 not an all out torch yikes just saw the 102 panel.. similar to UKIE.. low over BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 congrats quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This solution is terrible for anyone looking for snow except for northern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's not as bad as the GGEM though - not quite as warm. But yes and ugly scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Now we car start entertaining the Ukie/GGEM/NAVGEM and Euro solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This solution is terrible for anyone looking for snow except for northern Maine yeah, it's ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Cmc looks bad. GFS looks better for ski country. Hopefully this tracks over Albany and not Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Start clearing your roofs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Start clearing your roofsYup; people are having issues now never minding adding some more weight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well, it will all be over (except for the mess) by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Don't worry, the snowpack will keep this from cutting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Agreed..just was fun to see if folks would think it was right. Back to the GGEM being useless it seems Kev I don't usually do this, but I have a new Facebook blog and could use some 'likes'...so I will make you this bet. All 8 CT ASOS stations hit at least 34 during the storm this weekend. If they do, you pimp my blog on your Facebook and Twitter. If even one fails to hit 34, I will personally deliver a 12-pk of a beer of your choice (assuming its locally available) to your front door. edit: Just to be clear that's BDL, HFD, IJD, MMK, DXR, BDR, HVN, GON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Kev I don't usually do this, but I have a new Facebook blog and could use some 'likes'...so I will make you this bet. All 8 CT ASOS stations hit at least 34 during the storm this weekend. If they do, you pimp my blog on your Facebook and Twitter. If even one fails to hit 34, I will personally deliver a 12-pk of a beer of your choice (assuming its locally available) to your front door. Zima is his drink of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Maybe I'll go out on my snowshoes on Friday to get some pictures of the woods with nearly four feet of snow.... after that we go to the long and slow (I hope for the sake of us all) process of the meltdown. By the way, why is Accuweather the only one that has ORH into the mid 40's on Sunday? Weatherunderground and NWS still have us in the mid thirties with mostly frozen precip! How long do you think it will take them to come on board with the Canadian and the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS runs have gone from over 1" of rain to less than .1" for my area today and I don't think any of those scenarios are off the table yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Upon us all a little rain must fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Zima is his drink of choice. with a straw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Kev I don't usually do this, but I have a new Facebook blog and could use some 'likes'...so I will make you this bet. All 8 CT ASOS stations hit at least 34 during the storm this weekend. If they do, you pimp my blog on your Facebook and Twitter. If even one fails to hit 34, I will personally deliver a 12-pk of a beer of your choice (assuming its locally available) to your front door. edit: Just to be clear that's BDL, HFD, IJD, MMK, DXR, BDR, HVN, GON That's a good bet for both sides....will likely be close either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 with a straw? Slice of lime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Snowpack: We toss. RIP. It was a nice ride. We torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Zima is his drink of choice. Well perhaps I should just say 144 ounces of a beverage of his choice. Tonic water perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Kev I don't usually do this, but I have a new Facebook blog and could use some 'likes'...so I will make you this bet. All 8 CT ASOS stations hit at least 34 during the storm this weekend. If they do, you pimp my blog on your Facebook and Twitter. If even one fails to hit 34, I will personally deliver a 12-pk of a beer of your choice (assuming its locally available) to your front door. edit: Just to be clear that's BDL, HFD, IJD, MMK, DXR, BDR, HVN, GON We are 4 days out in the model world. As we all are fully aware,, modeling does a terrible job of underestimating low level cold and tries blasting warm air way north of where it ends up. If it was Dec or we had no snow cover or the water was warmer..i would have no trouble buying these torch ideas.. I will stand by this..It will end secondarying somewhere near or south of E LI..and track over the far outer Cape or just offshore. I see a 3-6 front end type deal in SNE that goes to ice inland and turns back to snow on Monday. I think the hype of buildings coming down, and vehicles flash freezing on highways while driving is being way way overdone. This will end up a few hours above freezing on tha coast and probably not sniffing above 32 inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS runs have gone from over 1" of rain to less than .1" for my area today and I don't think any of those scenarios are off the table yet. I know. For my area the 18z and 00z went from 2-3" of rain to less than an inch @ 06z and .6 @ 12z, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Snowpack: We toss. RIP. It was a nice ride. We torch. Temps and dewpoints in the 50F+ range right up to BTV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Before anyone can finalize their torch wire to wire rain to Maine ideas..you've got to see how the models handle the press of fresh arctic air coming in on Friday. Until they get a handle on that(numbers are still coming down BTW) they are not going to be able to resolve this. Seeing a few runs with a weak low over NY state doesn't change my thinking.. not yet anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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