CT Valley Snowman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Rap indicates snow breaking out early- mid afternoon with a decent burst perhaps followed by some lighter returns or a brief lull , especially in western areas between about 6 and 8 pm, with the heaviest action between about 8 pm and midnight while the mixing line is penetrating northward in southeastern and southern portions by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Our Sunday high has been dropped 6 degrees in 24 hrs. I'll take mostly a touch of snow, cold rain taint and skiing on ice that will soften in the late Feb sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z NAM trending colder still. By 03z, -3C 925 line is now just north of Boston. Last run was up at NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z NAM trending colder still. By 03z, -3C 925 line is now just north of Boston. Last run was up at NH border. It does look a tick southeast/cooler. 32F line gets about as far as I-84/I-495 as an estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I may never see my grass again. I was hoping for a gentle melt down here But it looks like it's going to be very very light melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 QPF still about as paltry as 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 QPF still about as paltry as 06z run. I would expect it to be drier if its colder. Sort of a Meh event. I can't wait to ski tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 2015 meet 1936 if we get a quick melt out and alot of rain nam trended even colder all snow here I may never see my grass again. I was hoping for a gentle melt down here But it looks like it's going to be very very light melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nam is really cold, this is mostly if not all snow for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 2015 meet 1936 if we get a quick melt out and alot of rain nam trended even colder all snow here 1936 featured very heavy snow in NNE. This year is closer to average. I am less concerned with a 1936 scenario barring big March snows up north which certainly cannot be ruled out. Right now though the primary concern is for smaller basins in E MA, E CT, and RI. Also the potential for local flooding due to blocked storm drains in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 massive flooding on the ct river was the result of an ice jam at the holyoke dam i thought? when it let go caused massive flooding in springfield this year ice is just as thick so i could see that happening if we warm quickly with rain 1936 featured very heavy snow in NNE. This year is closer to average.I am less concerned with a 1936 scenario barring big March snows up north which certainly cannot be ruled out. Right now though the primary concern is for smaller basins in E MA, E CT, and RI. Also the potential for local flooding due to blocked storm drains in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 1936 featured very heavy snow in NNE. This year is closer to average. I am less concerned with a 1936 scenario barring big March snows up north which certainly cannot be ruled out. Right now though the primary concern is for smaller basins in E MA, E CT, and RI. Also the potential for local flooding due to blocked storm drains in those areas. Yeah exactly. 1936 was epic for snow pack across NNE... this winter it's average to above average. The issue will be more flash flooding on the smaller basins in eastern areas of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 massive flooding on the ct river was the result of an ice jam at the holyoke dam i thought? when it let go caused massive flooding in springfield this year ice is just as thick so i could see that happening if we warm quickly with rain Not sure of the specifics below the dam but flooding extended well north into CNE and beyond just the CT River Basin. And IIRC the CT river hit its highest levels all time in many places so beyond just the ice the water was insanely high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yeah exactly. 1936 was epic for snow pack across NNE... this winter it's average to above average. The issue will be more flash flooding on the smaller basins in eastern areas of SNE. so far...March is the big NNE month and with this years cold should produce, we are the Midwest last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 BOX put a new map on Facebook upping totals a bit (BOS 4-6, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 so far...March is the big NNE month and with this years cold should produce, we are the Midwest last year Possibly - though there have been huge flood control measures put in along the Connecticut River and its tributaries since 1936 plus snow pack in NNE is running at or a bit above normal. Nothing too concerning IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 BOX put a new map on Facebook upping totals a bit (BOS 4-6, etc.)What falls is all or almost all snow in the big cities been clear as day imo for a few days.Cold is "winning" and I say that as Charlie sheen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Also, OT, but it was -9 at BDL this morning. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Possibly - though there have been huge flood control measures put in along the Connecticut River and its tributaries since 1936 plus snow pack in NNE is running at or a bit above normal. Nothing too concerning IMO. Think the ice jam issue would be the problem, 1936 ain't happening again with the flood control, hopefully we have a gentle melt out. Discussion here http://w1.weather.gov/data/BOX/ESFBOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 6-8 for many. Locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 And my qpf continues to dwindle away on the NAM. 4" will be a win I think. But, if the RGEM continues, that might be a stretch. 3.0/-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 And my qpf continues to dwindle away on the NAM. 4" will be a win I think. But, if the RGEM continues, that might be a stretch. 3.0/-5 You're the grim reaper of snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 You're the grim reaper of snow totals Come on--you're the best teacher for doing so. Where are your obscure model and observations pointing to why this will continue SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 box map is nice would love that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 1936 featured very heavy snow in NNE. This year is closer to average. I am less concerned with a 1936 scenario barring big March snows up north which certainly cannot be ruled out. Right now though the primary concern is for smaller basins in E MA, E CT, and RI. Also the potential for local flooding due to blocked storm drains in those areas. Snowmelt alone may cause flooding in limited areas, but for widespread severe flooding, a significant rain event would be needed. I've yet to observe major flooding from just snowmelt. 1936 (before my time) included some rains, 1987 (which eclipsed 1936 on central Maine rivers) was caused by 4-7" of rain after a week of 50s/60s in late March, and the 2008 record floods on the St.John came from 3-4" rain at peak melting of that winter's record snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 box map shows 6 to 8 on the map but the colors says 4 to 6 which is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snowmelt alone may cause flooding in limited areas, but for widespread severe flooding, a significant rain event would be needed. I've yet to observe major flooding from just snowmelt. 1936 (before my time) included some rains, 1987 (which eclipsed 1936 on central Maine rivers) was caused by 4-7" of rain after a week of 50s/60s in late March, and the 2008 record floods on the St.John came from 3-4" rain at peak melting of that winter's record snows. I could see where a quick melt might present some localized problems along smaller rivers in eastern areas given the depth there. Given the not-so-extraordinary amounts in the CT river watershed, I think it would need to be accompanied by a heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Also, OT, but it was -9 at BDL this morning. Crazy. The color shading is unchanged, seems they've mislabeled a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Come on--you're the best teacher for doing so. Where are your obscure model and observations pointing to why this will continue SE?I've been entirely optimistic for both the trough and this event. Nobody notices when I'm being hopelessly optimistic like the reverend. It'll continue south because it's getting shredded, it's the overall multi day trend and its butt cold over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 RGEM drops 1-2" at the Pit. Meh. Still looks nice for Kevin and Ginx. 5.8/-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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