CT Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ill take the way under on that. Low 40's? You're crazy. Low - mid 30's tops under low clouds For BDL? I could see 40 pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Up by you, yes. You're N of BOS closer to the retreating antecedent cold air. The issue is along the I-90 pike area and points S of it. Yes, like I said...it's more a latitudinal issue..which is why the NAM gradient makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yes, like I said...it's more a latitudinal issue..which is why the NAM gradient makes no sense. It makes "some" sense. maybe not "perfect" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I thought the warmth would be coming from the south coast (ocean 40's) on south winds You honestly expect marine taint from the ocean south of NE?? That is akin to expecting marine taint out in w MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It makes "some" sense. maybe not "perfect" What sense does it make? When mid level warmth approaches from the sw, if anything this area does better than w MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM looks really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What sense does it make? When mid level warmth approaches from the sw, if anything this area does better than w MA. Perhaps I'm getting my layers mixed up but all the "warmth" with this system is below 850 mb and mostly centered around the 925mb level. I don't see you doing better than W MA in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z GFS has some screwy gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 New GFS a only gets the 850 0C TO ME!! 25 miles colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nice 6+ er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4km/12km NAM would suck. Drainage issues all over. 850's basically zero out around.... 0c from New Haven to BOS... Marginal. I'll side with the colder GFS. Should have a better handle than NAM at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'd say DIT called this outcome from the start, I think people should give him credit and ease up on discounting his thoughts constantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM really looks great. That would be a good snow for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Perhaps I'm getting my layers mixed up but all the "warmth" with this system is below 850 mb and mostly centered around the 925mb level. I don't see you doing better than W MA in this setup. Looks like 1c @ LWM at max on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z GFS has some screwy gradients. gfs_asnow_neus_11.png Hahaha, I wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM really looks great. That would be a good snow for many. Really snowy run of the RGEM. Looks like mostly 2-5" with spot 6-8" lollis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM really looks great. That would be a good snow for many. Finally on our side...feels like the past 30 days it's been against us for practically every event here in sw ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM: 12z RGEM rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks pretty pasty nw of the rain line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z RGEM rain. RN_000-048_0000.gif For the first time this winter I jack with QPF and it's mainly rain!! Areas a few miles north of me in Middletown and Portsmouth, RI could get an inch or more of snow outta this but I'll be lucky to get a slushy coating with south winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 For the first time this winter I jack with QPF and it's mainly rain!! Areas a few miles north of me in Middletown and Portsmouth, RI could get an inch or more of snow outta this but I'll be lucky to get a slushy coating with south winds. That last slush storm we got some of the best QPF as well. Hurray Hoping more than expecting that something interesting develops for tue/wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM really looks great. That would be a good snow for many. My name is thumpy snow take a dumpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is one of those events where SW ct can do relatively well with flow off the land. RGEM looks reasonable overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is one of those events where SW ct can do relatively well with flow off the land. RGEM looks reasonable overall. Nope, I see no issues with it either. Messy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 canadian is beuatiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS still toasty around 925mb by 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 You honestly expect marine taint from the ocean south of NE?? That is akin to expecting marine taint out in w MA. I don't I am saying much differently than you. (thou I am at work and can't check in often) I see this as a SWFE but with the caveat of a High in a piss poor position so the flow is more Southerly, thus winds off the ocean south of SNE will be warming things more, primarily from S to North. This warmth I expect to get north of the pike and change things to rain similar to what the Hi-Res nam shows. So with S-N changeover the further North the better. Also, When you get far enough West the Southerly or SSW flow is mostly over land (SW CT W/CT Berks) as well so they really wouldn't have any issues in BL where as areas to the east would gradually warm boundary layer from S-N after a decent WAA thump. I don't see temps in the Harbor (Bos) really having much effect either way given winds are not ESE/E/ENE. I'm hoping things can trend toward a lighter S Flow and slow any warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nope, I see no issues with it either. Messy storm. I just tried getting some snow off my parents roof. I hope they don't get a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Perhaps I'm getting my layers mixed up but all the "warmth" with this system is below 850 mb and mostly centered around the 925mb level. I don't see you doing better than W MA in this setup. Like I said, if the warmth is coming in from the sw, regardless of what level it is at, I don't see why low elevations to the west should fare much better. Elevations, sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 That would be .10+ of ZR after snow..Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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