Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doesn't sound cold. its cold, the dynamics wane further NE, more precip Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doesn't sound cold. For areas hardest hit from Boston S this run sucks eggs. Inside Rt 495 too. and yes, its the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:56 PM, Ginxy said: its cold, the dynamics wane further NE, more precip Berks Cool. I think the models are still overdoing warmth, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Garth 3-6 sleet then lt rain, drizzle which is going to freeze on these surfaces which are ice cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:56 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: For areas hardest hit from Boston S this run sucks eggs. Inside Rt 495 too. and yes, its the NAM. I don't think it's going to warm that much...again, 35* ssts don't frighten me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cool. I think the models are still overdoing warmth, anyway. the 925 to surface looks too warm to me, 850 surge is very very brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Def colder than 6z. Nice trends to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:57 PM, Ginxy said: Garth 3-6 sleet then lt rain, drizzle which is going to freeze on these surfaces which are ice coldI'm assuming you don't mean 3-6" of sleet? lol. That Would be a pack solidifier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'd say DIT called this outcome from the start, I think people should give him credit and ease up on discounting his thoughts constantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What's the timing of precip start, approx.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lol yea Garth 3-6 then sleet, starts Sat afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think it's going to warm that much...again, 35* ssts don't frighten me. "Warm" is all relative. Surface temps will be anywhere from 32-40F, my safest bet. It's the warmth that comes in just above the surface that's the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:18 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: "Warm" is all relative. Surface temps will be anywhere from 32-40F, my safest bet. It's the warmth that comes in just above the surface that's the problem. Right, which is why the map make no sense. Why the longitudinal gradient? That reflects BL issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM barely gets the 850 past me, EURO never does. If the 850 stays below Whomever in this case, does that mean no worse than Freezing Rain / Sleet? Or with the warmth below it still could very well mean plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:23 PM, TheSnowman said: NAM barely gets the 850 past me, EURO never does. If the 850 stays below Whomever in this case, does that mean no worse than Freezing Rain / Sleet? Or with the warmth below it still could very well mean plain rain. If anything, this should be more of a latitdudinal gradient... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Maybe the longitudinal gradient is more reflective of elevation vs coastal taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Seems to me its climo swfe colder with thumper the dumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sub 540 thicknesses imply the 900 down warming is bogus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM looks really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:29 PM, Ginxy said: Sub 540 thicknesses imply the 900 down warming is bogus I don't think that's true. I do think it warms up on southerly winds - but near the sfc we probably rot at 32 through 12z. Once we start to mix a bit though we should be able to warm up nicely to low 40s during the day Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:24 PM, BostonWX said: Maybe the longitudinal gradient is more reflective of elevation vs coastal taint. I get that, but why is the CV not impacted? Looks more pure longitudinal Even elevation doesn't really make much difference in a SWFE because the warmth is ABOVE the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:31 PM, CT Rain said: I don't think that's true. I do think it warms up on southerly winds - but near the sfc we probably rot at 32 through 12z. Once we start to mix a bit though we should be able to warm up nicely to low 40s during the day Sunday. I thought precip would be done by then, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:31 PM, CT Rain said: I don't think that's true. I do think it warms up on southerly winds - but near the sfc we probably rot at 32 through 12z. Once we start to mix a bit though we should be able to warm up nicely to low 40s during the day Sunday. Right, but damage is done by then....I gain about 4", then lose 2". It is during this time that elevation will probably make a difference, but again....storm is over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 For an easier to read [than the Tropicaltidbits version] snowfall map for the 12z NAM (snowfall is in centimeters): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right, but damage is done by then....I gain about 4", then lose 2". It is during this time that elevation will probably make a difference, but again....storm is over by then. Up by you, yes. You're N of BOS closer to the retreating antecedent cold air. The issue is along the I-90 pike area and points S of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:31 PM, CT Rain said: I don't think that's true. I do think it warms up on southerly winds - but near the sfc we probably rot at 32 through 12z. Once we start to mix a bit though we should be able to warm up nicely to low 40s during the day Sunday. Ill take the way under on that. Low 40's? You're crazy. Low - mid 30's tops under low clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 One other thing i see popping up is some convective nature to this, Some soundings imply thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think it's going to warm that much...again, 35* ssts don't frighten me. I thought the warmth would be coming from the south coast (ocean 40's) on south winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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