TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I may be totally wrong, but my gut sort of says snow to ice inland, rain on coast and then perhaps back to snow. I'm sort of feeling a track near SE MA. Again, just my gut right now.I also feel like this is one of those systems where the 32F line is closer to the actual storm track and not well NW like some models have. SE MA to Canal Probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 even this epic period has made Scott think that cutters won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Kev, I do appreciate your enthusiasm...but every year there seems to be this delusion that deep snow pack and low level cold can overcome the large scale synoptics of a system and that rain is an impossibility. But unfortunately rain is inevitable, just need the right system. I do believe there will be some snow to ice early on...maybe even hanging on a little longer in the interior than models have it. But like I said in the model thread, gonna take some giant leaps in the guidance from the current track through PA and NY to keep this 100% frozen event even in the interior. Just be happy it will be a cold rain and will help glaciate the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 even this epic period has made Scott think that cutters won't happen. Cutters can always happen. A cutter is like a wound up storm over NY state. I don't see that. At worst it warms up into central MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Any realistic hope that the trend S and E continues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Any realistic hope that the trend S and E continues? There hasn't been a trend SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMPhysicsTeacher Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We did have two cutters earlier in the season that models assumed warm air would sink fairly quick but up through 495 and beyond the cold held on much longer. With this setup, ice would be aajor concern as the ground has not been above freezing for a long time. Are there any major winds with this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 even this epic period has made Scott think that cutters won't happen. Jan 1-17 was 8.3 F below avg at my place, then 18-19 produced ZR/RA, mainly the latter. Feb. 1-17 is running -14.6; maybe that's enough cushion so that we get snow and maybe pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like rain for the majority for a lot of SNE.... Berks and CNE and NNE may score some snow.... Looks ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Ill take alot of rain then a flash freeze bullet proof the back then a potential for a nice storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Should be an ugly GFS look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's all going to come down to the orientation of the flow around the SPV near in/off James Bay. With the NAO being positive throughout, there is room for west translation of this system, much to Kevin's chagrin. However, details in said flow construct could force a southern solution just the same. Namely, should the southeast region of the N-stream flow around that SPV remain more WSW, then confluence results and forces/shears the system S. If that trough finds a way to orient more neutral, then less concfluence results and a west solution transpires... The other thing is that ...perhaps counter-intuitive, despite the return flow around the high retreating E into the Atlantic being SW...it doesn't flow for very long before this system moves through. Because, we start out deeply depressed beneath the 540dm medium. It's not like a 534 dm thickness air mass, that's cold with a return flow, and the more typical race. This is moving cold air over a glacier, with "true" warm air starting out way down south. So it's kind of a rare ordeal where you might just sustain a colder profiled system on a SW wind a bit longer than typical. But then of course ... if the system stays south and cuts over or under our lat/lon, this all becomes more academic, because the start out air mass, combined with WAA getting pinched off, would mean warming to at best 32 S and probably like 27 N with ptype contentions going back to snow... similar, 06z GFS. It's a needle threader either way. DET snow geese are trying to thread the needle; BOS snow geese (who are clearly bordering on psychosis for wishing/wanting on ANY more snow at this point... ) are also vying to thread the needle. No clear favorite in that SB right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like snow to start, then some rain..but luckily a weak system thank God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Kev, I do appreciate your enthusiasm...but every year there seems to be this delusion that deep snow pack and low level cold can overcome the large scale synoptics of a system and that rain is an impossibility. But unfortunately rain is inevitable, just need the right system. I do believe there will be some snow to ice early on...maybe even hanging on a little longer in the interior than models have it. But like I said in the model thread, gonna take some giant leaps in the guidance from the current track through PA and NY to keep this 100% frozen event even in the interior. Just be happy it will be a cold rain and will help glaciate the snowpack. There is a positive feedback, but it's like if there is a cold drain/ageostrophic set up, then yes, ...snow pack helps lock that in. In that case the glacier protects its self, so to speak.. But your right ... no sooner does the deeper layer gradient turn around SW ... the snow can't wait to disappear... I've seen 60F DP advect down to the surface over a 30" snowpace/ snowbank, with a shrouded fog dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think you clearly have to favor a heavily tainted system at this point. Not sure how you couldn't in the face of the mouting evidence in support of such an outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 SE ridge flexes on the GFS and system runs b/w the 2 highs...rain for most, but only .75-1.00-snowpack will absorb that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think you clearly have to favor a heavily tainted system at this point. Not sure how you couldn't in the face of the mouting evidence supporting such an outcome. Yeah, a lot of silly angst. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What are the projected surface temps? The CMC GEM look pretty scary for flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like snow to start, then some rain..but luckily a weak system thank God. Exactly how I expect it to play out. A kitchen sink system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah, a lot of silly angst. It is what it is. I can't stand it, but there is nothing I can do about it, and I have no right to b*tch after what has transpired over the course of the last few weeks...especially considering how much the polar fields have failed us. We're so lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Exactly how I expect it to play out. A kitchen sink system. Yeah lets keep it fairly weak. I 'm not even talking about the snowpack, but the rain would be a huge issue for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like snow to start, then some rain..but luckily a weak system thank God.Stick with your gut. Don't let the weenies sway you with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I can't stand it, but there is nothing I can do about it, and I have no right to b*tch after what has transpired over the course of the last few weeks...especially considering how much the polar fields have failed us. We're so lucky. Think of all those awful cutters in our best winter and what....we may get some rain with cold temps after 100" in two months? We certainly have been lucky. This seems like it will have snow at the onset too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Its tough to heavily favor anything several days out. We may taint and we may not. I'd lean taint now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I saw someone mention yesterday, and I agree, that QPF will likely verify less than what is being modeled. The dry slot will swing in here before you know it. I think the majority of the damage to the pack will be incurred after the rains stops, and we hang above freezing with elevated due for perhaps up to 12 hrs, awaiting the retuurn of the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Stick with your gut. Don't let the weenies sway you with rain It's not that different then the 6z, just a little more consolidated which is probably good because it means less rain. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Rain at 34F is a whole different ball game in terms of flooding than rain at 50F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Think of all those awful cutters in our best winter and what....we may get some rain with cold temps after 100" in two months? We certainly have been lucky. This seems like it will have snow at the onset too. Think of how brutal that '96 thaw was. We had to completely start over...and I mean completely; slate wiped painfully clean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Think of how brutal that '96 thaw was. We had to completely start oer...and I mean completely; slate wiped painfully clean... That sucked. I think 4 or 5 cutters with temps in the high 40's and 50's. Even took away most of the piles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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