MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ukie is also coming in much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like NCEP may have been correct in their refusal to buy what these models were selling earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Kevin gonna be throwin out AITs tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Kevin gonna be throwin out AITs tomorrow morning. He will still taint, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 what is up with all these amped solutions though? whether they show bomb coastals or bomb cutters why do models spit out so many extreme solutions overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Canadian solution looks strange. It's way north from 00z last night, thus delaying the arctic push by at least 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 what is up with all these amped solutions though? whether they show bomb coastals or bomb cutters why do models spit out so many extreme solutions overall? This winter NCEP has seemed to have low confidence overall in what many of the models are spitting out for solutions. Just today, they made a point of stating that they expected the cold (or at least colder) solutions to occur, rather than those amped up warm solutions all the models were showing last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS, GGEM, and NAM look to be in good agreement to my untrained eye for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS, GGEM, and NAM look to be in good agreement to my untrained eye for Sunday. Not really. The GGEM is pushing the low way north, and has Boston at 50°F at 90 hrs. while the GFS has 33°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro is much more progressive and colder. 0C line at 850 along the south shore of LI at 12z Sunday. 540 line even down to BDL-ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro also tries to develop a wave along the front too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro is much more progressive and colder. 0C line at 850 along the south shore of LI at 12z Sunday. 540 line even down to BDL-ORH. Much better than the GFS. At 12z Sunday, Boston was at 1°C and 4° at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 So far, it's NCEP for the win. By win, I mean no big rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not really. The GGEM is pushing the low way north, and has Boston at 50°F at 90 hrs. while the GFS has 33°F. I feel like I must be missing something here. Some differences in QPF but low positioning and temps, esp. at hour 84, look strikingly similar to me, but here's 90 since that's what you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not really. The GGEM is pushing the low way north, and has Boston at 50°F at 90 hrs. while the GFS has 33°F. Nevermind, you were talking 2m temps. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 EURO is now Snow to Ice to Tiny Rain back to Snow. And has a pretty good sized hit at our 150 through 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good morning!! Great trends and they continue today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 TIme to bring out the qpf queens. Regardless off p-type, ess than .5" for GC. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 TIme to bring out the qpf queens. Regardless off p-type, ess than .5" for GC. Meh. Considering how things looked yesterday Eeyore, this is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe it's the deep snowpack doing it's dirty work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 You wonder if this keeps trending to a mostly or all snow event.. While it's not likely ..it's not out of realm of possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's the s/w and trough...it keeps pressing east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You wonder if this keeps trending to a mostly or all snow event.. While it's not likely ..it's not out of realm of possibility It's the s/w and trough...it keeps pressing east. Presses east and becomes a minor couple inch event to make the pack look fresh. We don't know how this one's going to play out. But in spite of some initial misgivings on the board regarding the new GFS, it really is pretty good. I haven't seen verification scores, but it seems to have taken the EC out to the woodshed with a few of the events this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think you have until noon to submit temps for the Sunday contest so I would think sbout editing some of those higher numbers based on what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think you have until noon to submit temps for the Sunday contest so I would think sbout editing some of those higher numbers based on what I'm seeing. Even my cold numbers might be too warm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's the s/w and trough...it keeps pressing east. Seems like it has potential to turn into a 4-8 snow event. We'll see how today's runs go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 6z GFS even colder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 6z GFS even colder . These trends are a Tolland Kev special for sure. Or perhaps my jinx of late where models go opposite of where my gut starts heading is full proof at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 6z GFS even colder . Of all people to hug the off hour GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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