Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 11:11 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Wxniss I just got a look at 6z Rgem..I see what you were saying..lol.. 6-9 spot .don't take those 10-1 ratios verbatim could be big ratios to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:02 PM, Ginxy said: don't take those 10-1 ratios verbatim could be big ratios to start With the warming upstairs ..I think this is denser and wetter than anything we've seen since the Jan 24th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:00 PM, Damage In Tolland said: No..no it was never a torching rainer..Never, ever had a chance at being that. Models were showing it but yes, you won on your snowier call. nice job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:03 PM, Damage In Tolland said: With the warming upstairs ..I think this is denser and wetter than anything we've seen since the Jan 24th stormthe start is not, we could throw down some high ratio big numbers early, think of the WAA with a South wind of last week, snow might just explode for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:05 PM, Ginxy said: the start is not, we could throw down some high ratio big numbers early, think of the WAA with a South wind of last week, snow might just explode for a while Yeah i suppose though this is a different setup than that was with the transition to a coastal. This is just your more typical WAA push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:04 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: Models were showing it but yes, you won on your snowier call. nice job. Just bookmark that to memory..next time models show a warm cutter after a fresh press of arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I like being about 15-25 miles north of the possible mix line. I always seem to do better intensity-wise, if I lose on ratios. Magical to be out and about in dense heavy flakes. Though as things evolved, this area will probably have pretty good ratios for the first 6-10 hours, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just when ya think you might finally do something a little special......ẃeve pretty much sublimated what we got Sunday so best case scenario is probably just getting back what we lost and then we loose part of that tomorrow .....95-96 and 10-11 way better and way more spread out for everyone.... we desperately need a few miller A inside the bm for snow epicosity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wonder how long it takes to saturate,virga city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:04 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: Models were showing it but yes, you won on your snowier call. nice job. Ok, so job one is done: we pushed back on the rain/mix. Job two: radically increase snow totals by the 12z runs. Can we do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think Uptons 3-7" range on the wwa summary is a weak call. 3" is advisory while 7" is a warning. Either go 3-5" and leave the advisory or go warning for 5-8". They've had a very subpar winter and prob don't want to go warning and bust again. But this is coming in saturday night where many folks will be out and about. Could be some trouble on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:16 PM, Patrick-02540 said: Ok, so job one is done: we pushed back on the rain/mix. Job two: radically increase snow totals by the 12z runs. Can we do it? Unless guidance starts drying a bit, yes we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 im starting to think i stay all snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Just bookmark that to memory..next time models show a warm cutter after a fresh press of arctic air Yes all the rain storms prior to Jan 24th between the arctic cold shots really heeded that advice. Remember folks freaking out about cold and dry after warm and wet, and Cold Miser was ice skating on his rain pond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:32 PM, powderfreak said: Yes all the rain storms prior to Jan 24th between the arctic cold shots really heeded that advice. Remember folks freaking out about cold and dry after warm and wet, and Cold Miser was ice skating on his rain pond? The ocean was warm and we had no snowpack..and the arctic air masses were nothing like these. Not even comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said: The ocean was warm and we had no snowpack..and the arctic air masses were nothing like these. Not even comparable.My coldest mornings of the winter were January 8th and January 14th. Those were potent air masses. But yes, it is requiring a record cold airmass to stay snow down there. I'm just saying you are simplifying it too much. We could easily vacate this airmass and rain by morning if the set up allowed it, as we did earlier in the winter and last winter a bunch. It's not a lock that just because it's cold now every storm has to stay snow. It's more because of the weak low. If it had been 992mb it certainly would've cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:03 PM, Damage In Tolland said: With the warming upstairs ..I think this is denser and wetter than anything we've seen since the Jan 24th storm Yup. I think BOX's statement is a good one that even though intensity will increase, the snowfall rates will actually get lower. Not much in the way of fluff as the warmer air intrudes aloft. 3-4 with spot 5's in GC/northern ORH (except Lunenberg which will register a 9.5") 4-6" south of there near Kevin, trickle down as you continue South and East as mix increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:40 PM, powderfreak said: My coldest mornings of the winter were January 8th and January 14th. Those were potent air masses. But yes, it is requiring a record cold airmass to stay snow down there. I'm just saying you are simplifying it too much. We could easily vacate this airmass and rain by morning if the set up allowed it, as we did earlier in the winter and last winter a bunch. It's not a lock that just because it's cold now every storm has to stay snow. It's more because of the weak low. If it had been 992mb it certainly would've cut. Well according to Tip it happens all the time .He recalls many instances when it went from 0 to 40 in short 7-8 hour recovery with a few drips of zr to plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 11:54 AM, moneypitmike said: I'm not excited about ratios--I don't see good snow growth and moisture is limited. Good chance for (another) under-performer out here. But, with the recent stretch of cool days, the winter has risen to the B- level. Met-winter wil likely sit at a C+. 2-4" for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:46 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Well according to Tip it happens all the time .He recalls many instances when it went from 0 to 40 in short 7-8 hour recovery with a few drips of zr to plain rain That it does. There are a good deal of thaws that start out like 0F up here only to be 34F and rain within 24hrs. Even the Grinch storm was 3F the morning prior to raining at 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:47 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: 2-4" for us? I wouldn't rule it out. I was thinking earlier I might not reach my 3" snow-blower threshold (one that I'm sure makes Kevin cringe). I'm pretty sure we'll wind up around 4" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:47 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: 2-4" for us? Eeyore starts them low and takes them lower if needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:53 PM, powderfreak said: That it does. There are a good deal of thaws that start out like 0F up here only to be 34F and rain within 24hrs. Even the Grinch storm was 3F the morning prior to raining at 33F. Yup. Cutter's will cut and torches will torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:57 PM, MaineJayhawk said: Eeyore starts them low and takes them lower if needed RGEM suggests that might be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 it mostly packed down i can walk on some of my drifts lol On 2/21/2015 at 12:14 PM, codfishsnowman said: Just when ya think you might finally do something a little special......ẃeve pretty much sublimated what we got Sunday so best case scenario is probably just getting back what we lost and then we loose part of that tomorrow .....95-96 and 10-11 way better and way more spread out for everyone.... we desperately need a few miller A inside the bm for snow epicosity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:59 PM, moneypitmike said: RGEM suggests that might be the case. I'm just watching radar from this point out. Leading edge about to barrel into Maryland/S central PA. I'd say NYC up to ALB by 1-2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 What time should the precip start in the Worcester area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:40 PM, powderfreak said: My coldest mornings of the winter were January 8th and January 14th. Those were potent air masses. But yes, it is requiring a record cold airmass to stay snow down there. I'm just saying you are simplifying it too much. We could easily vacate this airmass and rain by morning if the set up allowed it, as we did earlier in the winter and last winter a bunch. It's not a lock that just because it's cold now every storm has to stay snow. It's more because of the weak low. If it had been 992mb it certainly would've cut. there's something to his thought pattern. The sheer expanse of heavy cold across Canada is nothing like Dec Jan. That's a dam not a waterfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:59 PM, ineedsnow said: it mostly packed down i can walk on some of my drifts lolyep wind packed stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 theres a pretty big field behind my place got some awesome drifts the last couple of days On 2/21/2015 at 1:39 PM, Ginxy said: yep wind packed stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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