N. OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 10:14 PM, bboughton said: I can't get that map to load. Apparently Box sees BL ? Torched in NE mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 10:23 PM, NeonPeon said: You are more likely in an advisory for the risk of icing and the uncertainty that a small shift would make. We probably won't even get an inch of snow/slush, but we're in an advisory.I don't think this is a system depemdent on slight shifts here. All depends on how quickly the lower levels warm on a SSW wind. Maybe it moves in quickly, maybe the cold SSTs help. Who knows but it's not a good setup for us. I'm keeping expectations low. I think we have the max pack here for the season barring some additional snows over the next couple of weeks b/c we're going to get some good rains with temps around 40 for about 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No advisories for our area and by the latest trend looks like local met is right 1-3 inches. Really a dry slot per the new maps oh well good luck to the south get the record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 I thought that was a really good AFD tonight by Sipprell. Think he nailed a lot of good points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 10:19 PM, sbos_wx said: They def gonna change that map I would think.. Advisories look fair so I'd go 3-4" here....2-3" is prob a hair low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:13 AM, FRWEATHA said: I don't think this is a system depemdent on slight shifts here. All depends on how quickly the lower levels warm on a SSW wind. Maybe it moves in quickly, maybe the cold SSTs help. Who knows but it's not a good setup for us. I'm keeping expectations low. I think we have the max pack here for the season barring some additional snows over the next couple of weeks b/c we're going to get some good rains with temps around 40 for about 24 hrs. Yes, you are quite right, it's more about tricky profiles... I'm certain we have seen the best of the winter here on the south coast. It's been a fun ride, but we are always the first to hop off. Be sad to see the erosion of an uncharacteristically stubborn pack, but am anticipating fog and rain eating a huge amount of snow away. Could be quite messy. I think the advisories at least here are more about that threat, some icing and flooding, and them wanting to put across how serious that could be unambiguously regardless of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:34 AM, NeonPeon said: Yes, you are quite right, it's more about tricky profiles... I'm certain we have seen the best of the winter here on the south coast. It's been a fun ride, but we are always the first to hop off. Be sad to see the erosion of an uncharacteristically stubborn pack, but am anticipating fog and rain eating a huge amount of snow away. Could be quite messy. I think the advisories at least here are more about that threat, some icing and flooding, and them wanting to put across how serious that could be unambiguously regardless of snow. I don't think it will be that bad. Some rain with temps under 40 isn't terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:38 AM, CoastalWx said: I don't think it will be that bad. Some rain with temps under 40 isn't terrible. Where you guys get a lot of rain from this it's going to an ice storm at like 34-35 with cold surface temps. Ice cold snow pack..all trees and roads frozen.= big trouble for y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:41 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Where you guys get a lot of rain from this it's going to an ice storm at like 34-35 with cold surface temps. Ice cold snow pack..all trees and roads frozen.= big trouble for y'all My area will escape the heavier rain I think. That may be more south coast. I'm thinking maybe 2-4 right now. If the precip is sort of disorganized, 2". If it comes in like a heal;thy band near 00z..maybe 3-4." perhaps half inch of rain after, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 RGEM for CT 12z and then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:38 AM, CoastalWx said: I don't think it will be that bad. Some rain with temps under 40 isn't terrible. I don't necessarily think just here we'll stay under 40, and I think we'll see mostly rain. We'll have to see, this island seems to have its own microclimate. You can see it with every storm that comes through, just a couple miles north of here on the island will consistently have more snow than me down on the southern end. The water is unusually cold, I was shocked to see the extent of icing recently even at the mouth of the bay the other day, but I don' think that'll make a difference. There's also fog in the forecast, which won't help. I think the worst of the icing will be NW of here from what is being modeled. I'd prefer ice to rain, but that's because I share the same disease that so many on this forum seem to. I think there will be some street flooding. This area doesn't have close to as deep a pack as other areas, including some expecting rain, but it also doesn't have the best record with flooding either in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said: RGEM for CT 12z and then 18z RGEM likes a SW flow semi-blocked orographic precip pattern on its past few progs...if that happens you could do real well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said: RGEM for CT 12z and then 18z Yeah--the RGEM continues to screw NW Mass. Southern areas so well, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't understand why the RGEM has such a meso scale look to its snowfall map? is this Shadowing? Never really see that snow accum pattern on maps before that it is showing in NY and CT, (MA screw Zone just East of ORH but accums go back up in NE mass) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:09 AM, N. OF PIKE said: I don't understand why the RGEM has such a meso scale look to its snowfall map? is this Shadowing? Never really see that snow accum pattern on maps before that it is showing in NY and CT, (MA screw Zone just East of ORH but accums go back up in NE mass) The NW hills of CT are why the valley is shadowed. I don't know that that's the correct idea or not though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think RGEM is a little too cute with things, but I do like SW CT in this and up through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 9:58 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: I'll take it. I expect a good burst for a few hours saturday night. Thinking 4-6" here is reasonable with an isolated 8" amount if things break right for someone like DXR. Hoping you and me pull out 8 or 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said: <p> RGEM for CT 12z and then 18z That's got us between 8 and 9 in our respective areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:14 AM, CoastalWx said: I think RGEM is a little too cute with things, but I do like SW CT in this and up through 84. Why does it taper out this way? SW being shredded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:37 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why does it taper out this way? SW being shredded? Less QPF....likely from weaker forcing. Not sure I buy it though...but this looks like one of those systems that will dump a little more snow down that way. I still think BOX is too low up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:30 AM, Patrick-02540 said: That's got us between 8 and 9 in our respective areas.Well I'm not sure if it happens like that, but I just hope it's wet snow and we really add some bass and weight to the pack. I'm at about 25-26 inch depth and hope to get it back up over 30 heading into the mid week storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:44 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Well I'm not sure if it happens like that, but I just hope it's wet snow and we really add some bass and weight to the pack. I'm at about 25-26 inch depth and hope to get it back up over 30 heading into the mid week storm . Based on NOHRSC analysis, you need bass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:52 AM, NeonPeon said: I don't necessarily think just here we'll stay under 40, and I think we'll see mostly rain. We'll have to see, this island seems to have its own microclimate. You can see it with every storm that comes through, just a couple miles north of here on the island will consistently have more snow than me down on the southern end. The water is unusually cold, I was shocked to see the extent of icing recently even at the mouth of the bay the other day, but I don' think that'll make a difference. There's also fog in the forecast, which won't help. I think the worst of the icing will be NW of here from what is being modeled. I'd prefer ice to rain, but that's because I share the same disease that so many on this forum seem to. I think there will be some street flooding. This area doesn't have close to as deep a pack as other areas, including some expecting rain, but it also doesn't have the best record with flooding either in spots. Finally...someone is singing my tune!! Other than Block Island and Nantucket Newport gets the least amount of snow in New England. I've been following this since I was in third grade back in the late 1980s....Neon..How long have you lived in Newport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:55 AM, CoastalWx said: Based on NOHRSC analysis, you need bass.You mean water content right? It's just fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:59 AM, Damage In Tolland said: You mean water content right? It's just fluff Yeah. Need some bass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:05 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah. Need some bass.Even in Ginx area is mostly fluff as you can see in his drifting video. If this stuff is wet tomorriw night with 24-30 OTG River east we may start having structural issues with the amount of snow on roofs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:56 AM, HarveyLeonardFan said: Finally...someone is singing my tune!! Other than Block Island and Nantucket Newport gets the least amount of snow in New England. I've been following this since I was in third grade back in the late 1980s....Neon..How long have you lived in Newport? I've only been living in Newport for 3 years and change. I grew up in upstate NY mostly, but for the 6 years before Newport, I was in Orange County CA for 6 years, so I can't complain too loudly about our weak winter weather, because that place bored me to tears. And we do get some really amazing wind. I've noticed the aquidneck island thing in storm after storm, especially since I drive up to Bristol all the time. You can watch the banks grow as you go up east main road. It doesn't seem to matter whether there's mixing, although thats more likely to happen down here too, but it's not just that. Even in an all snow event, almost regardless of what kind of system it is, we get less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:05 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah. Need some bass. Do us guys in western, CT need bass also for better accumulations? Not sure what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:09 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Even in Ginx area is mostly fluff as you can see in his drifting video. If this stuff is wet tomorriw night with 24-30 OTG River east we may start having structural issues with the amount of snow on roofs We don't really have ice or rain in it as well, but a couple of events had higher water content. NAM ticks colder again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:13 AM, Patrick-02540 said: Do us guys in western, CT need bass also for better accumulations? Not sure what that means. LOL, it means water content in the pack. It's just a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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