Hoosier Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 A strong -NAO/AO has not been the dominant pattern over the last 2 years... Southern tier of US should still remain active depending on how far south the cold front from the ULL makes it, but severe potential for Great Lakes area will likely be shut down heading into May. I'm not complaining considering some areas further south could still use some rain to moisten things up for May/June. If there isn't a big uptick in activity the rest of the month, there's gonna be some pretty dreadful January-April severe/tornado numbers for severe weather fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 If there isn't a big uptick in activity the rest of the month, there's gonna be some pretty dreadful January-April severe/tornado numbers for severe weather fans. There is a chance late next week of something sneaking by to the south of the mess up this way. That could lead to some decent severe in the south, but ya locally it has been pretty light other than last week's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2015 Author Share Posted April 17, 2015 If there isn't a big uptick in activity the rest of the month, there's gonna be some pretty dreadful January-April severe/tornado numbers for severe weather fans. Sunday has potential to be pretty substantial in AR/vicinity if recent model guidance is any suggestion. Latter part of next week might have potential as well depending on how the northeastern upper low evolves, although it won't be in this sub-forum. I think below/well below avg totals are pretty much a given with how January through March went. It's going to rely on May/June to provide the bigger totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 IMO...the pattern has shifted...we might still be feeling the buzz in the morning after a hard night of drinking (for the last 2 years)...but its just not the same. Pattern flips on a dime sound dramatic and might occur from time to time, but typically a longer range look will show some lag and overlap. After the last 2 winters and the neverending string of "top notch" days last summer, i don't need a change...but i feel it is underway. Just my 2 cents on the matter. A change to what...or if its good or bad for action....i dunno...tough to tell what is new amd what is lag from the last 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 ..the apparent weather may be similar to what has dominated perhaps that was a better way to say it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 I've got the rope ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Just awful. Man, when the rubber band snaps back, it's gonna hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 I just hope we make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 A strong -NAO/AO has not been the dominant pattern over the last 2 years... Southern tier of US should still remain active depending on how far south the cold front from the ULL makes it, but severe potential for Great Lakes area will likely be shut down heading into May. I'm not complaining considering some areas further south could still use some rain to moisten things up for May/June. As exciting as the last event was our region rarely cashes in too much before mid May anyways with severe weather. This is Plains season for now Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 I just hope we make it. uploadfromtaptalk1429481811228.jpg At least if we were buried in snow it would be awesome. Pointless cold is truly the worst weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 omega block setting up over the west coast? Great May Blizzard of 2015 in the works while the north pole torches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 omega block setting up over the west coast? Great May Blizzard of 2015 in the works while the north pole torches? Blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 i thought the hyperbole was obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 i thought the hyperbole was obvious In this situation, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 omega block setting up over the west coast? Great May Blizzard of 2015 in the works while the north pole torches? What omega block are you seeing, unless the EPO tanks incredibly there won't be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 The Euro weeklies from a few days ago and latest CFS weeklies are in pretty good agreement on lower heights out west and eastern ridging (-PNA pattern) in early to mid May. So hopefully the big western ridge reamplification and eastern trough shown in late April is followed by a large scale pattern change supportive of warmth and storm chances. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 The Euro weeklies from a few days ago and latest CFS weeklies are in pretty good agreement on lower heights out west and eastern ridging (-PNA pattern) in early to mid May. So hopefully the big western ridge reamplification and eastern trough shown in late April is followed by a large scale pattern change supportive of warmth and storm chances. Sent from my SM-G900V Both of these have been advertising this change in early May for a while now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 I don't snow blow April snow... I just let it melt in the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Both of these have been advertising this change in early May for a while now too. It's good to have the Euro on board too because it's often hard to take the CFS with more than a grain of salt. Have heard too from Tsnow12 that the GWO/angular momentum research being worked on by Victor Gensini is pointing at early to mid May being active as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 It's good to have the Euro on board too because it's often hard to take the CFS with more than a grain of salt. Have heard too from Tsnow12 that the GWO/angular momentum research being worked on by Victor Gensini is pointing at early to mid May being active as well. Speaking of GWO/angular momentum, came across this page a while back and it has a forecast GWO off of the GEFS. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html It updates daily both in current data and forecast data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 I don't snow blow April snow... I just let it melt in the driveway. I remember having well over a foot of snow otg after that April 25th 2005 storm. It was all gone by evening of the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Speaking of GWO/angular momentum, came across this page a while back and it has a forecast GWO off of the GEFS. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html It updates daily both in current data and forecast data. Thanks for the link. Will be bookmarking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 western ridge: check massive east coast trough: check https://youtu.be/I1wg1DNHbNU?t=104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 western ridge: check massive east coast trough: check https://youtu.be/I1wg1DNHbNU?t=104 this pattern will eventually turn into a nice pleasant Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 this pattern will eventually turn into a nice pleasant Summer maybe, i've been waiting for it and lots of a smart people think so but come on already i'd even take a complete coin flip to a blowtorch summer at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 maybe, i've been waiting for it and lots of a smart people think so but come on already i'd even take a complete coin flip to a blowtorch summer at this point c'mon, you'd be the first bitching about the heat tho. might as well keep this pattern until Sept and then flip to something besides a dry NW flow Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 c'mon, you'd be the first bitching about the heat tho. might as well keep this pattern until Sept and then flip to something besides a dry NW flow Winter. i'm ready for a month straight of 90s, humidity and midnight MCS rollers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 i'm ready for a month straight of 90s, humidity and midnight MCS rollers ohhhh, that does sound nice! late night storms are the best. laying in the bed with the windows open and hearing the distant thunder getting closer as the wind picks up! ahhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 so ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I wonder if ALEK will post todays EURO not that it shows a completely different look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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