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Spring 2015 Medium/Long Range Discussion


andyhb

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I think the Easter weekend through the first part of the following week should be watched carefully in the Midwest.  Stebo keeps focusing on the 7th/8th.  I'm wondering if the Final Four championship game that Easter Monday might have more to contend with than basketball. GFS as well has been fairly consistent in bringing a storm to the Midwest in that time period.

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I think the Easter weekend through the first part of the following week should be watched carefully in the Midwest. Stebo keeps focusing on the 7th/8th. I'm wondering if the Final Four championship game that Easter Monday might have more to contend with than basketball. GFS as well has been fairly consistent in bringing a storm to the Midwest in that time period.

Lately the more I am looking at things it might have sped up to Easter weekend though. I do think a bigger potential is there beyond April 7th with the next trough.
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Lately the more I am looking at things it might have sped up to Easter weekend though. I do think a bigger potential is there beyond April 7th with the next trough.

Well we might have one system prime the pump so to speak.  But I do think this pattern will change and provide much greater opportunity for svr wx than we have seen with our constant nw flow.

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Well we might have one system prime the pump so to speak. But I do think this pattern will change and provide much greater opportunity for svr wx than we have seen with our constant nw flow.

The issue with the first system is, if it is too strong it will drove a front into the Gulf and will make the second trough need more time to draw the moisture north. The GFS is showing why the weaker system with trough one leads to a better system with trough two. Where the Euro is the other way, though I do think both models would have severe with both troughs.
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Looks like the 12z Euro wraps it up as well between 144 and 168.

 

We have a rapidly deepening surface low with a decent warm sector for it to work with at 18z 4/3 (60s dews into central IL/IN/OH), 25-40 kts of 0-1 km shear and 55-70 kts of 0-6 km shear. This would have potential to be a rather substantial severe weather threat. The area in central IL at this time near the warm front is particularly impressive.

Thoughts on farther east? Could Michigan get in on the early action? 41st anniversary of the Super Outbreak!! 

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