A-L-E-K Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Long range looks like it wants to spit out a snowstorm beyond April 1. Ugh. worst climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Long range looks like it wants to spit out a snowstorm beyond April 1. Ugh. Cold rain for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 p sick blizzard on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Cold rain for most. Maybe it ends up that way (or maybe we end up with no storm lol). 00z GGEM was pretty snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 disaster run^ hoping for suppression (depressing phrase for april) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 p sick blizzard on the 12z GFS Let wisconsin WXXX start the thread...he's due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 lol, people talking about truncated data in the spring.None of the models truncate anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Not as much as they used to. But they still do. You can see it through phasing and moisture plumes compared up to earlier timeframes. Some runs are better than others. In the spring, it gets worse. Today's 12z is a great example of bad modeling. Sloppy handlment of pacific energy and then it hits truncation.........whoosh.....all reality leaves the Op. There is no truncation, the models all carry the same resolution through their runs. I don't think you understand or are using the word truncation in the wrong context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I really don't care if the models truncate or not. Nobody should be banking on op runs over a week out... we need something to talk about sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I really don't care if the models truncate or not. Nobody should be banking on op runs over a week out... we need something to talk about sometimes. True, I didn't think anyone was actually banking on something a week out anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Yet another congrats Alek storm. ORD's livin' the life this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 26, 2015 Author Share Posted March 26, 2015 Not as much as they used to. But they still do. You can see it through phasing and moisture plumes compared up to earlier timeframes. Some runs are better than others. In the spring, it gets worse. Today's 12z is a great example of bad modeling. Sloppy handlment of pacific energy and then it hits truncation.........whoosh.....all reality leaves the Op. Ugh, please stop. Edit: Euro weeklies are in, and they are rather ominous looking for the balance of April (not talking cold either). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Ugh, please stop. Edit: Euro weeklies are in, and they are rather ominous looking for the balance of April (not talking cold either). JB all over the idea that the cold rubber band snaps hard after Easter, trough backs west, major ridging in east, and the severe season kicks off big time in April fueled by a very warm GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 really hard to believe at this stage^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 really hard to believe at this stage^ definitely a believe-it-when-I-see-it forecast. OTOH, I mean eventually it's got to............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 any call for a west coast trough should be tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 any call for a west coast trough should be tossed So if you are going to toss everything what are you looking at: The pattern is changing in 10 days and the change is for a prolonged trough out west and ridging in the east. The teleconnections agree, the weeklies agree and the CFS agrees. All of these can be tracked for several days going back that have all been advertising a pattern change around April 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 So if you are going to toss everything what are you looking at: The pattern is changing in 10 days and the change is for a prolonged trough out west and ridging in the east. The teleconnections agree, the weeklies agree and the CFS agrees. All of these can be tracked for several days going back that have all been advertising a pattern change around April 7th. This doesn't look like a strong signal for troughing in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 This doesn't look like a strong signal for troughing in the west wk3_wk4_20150326_z500.gif Daily images disagree on WB, even at that the mean doesn't show much of anything especially at that range with those images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Daily images disagree on WB, even at that the mean doesn't show much of anything especially at that range with those images. I forgot that COD has the CFS now so I went there and flipped through the run. You can see how it's a much better look than what we've had...not that the bar is high for that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 The 18z GFS can go to hell with that +20" hit in MN the first week of April. Garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I forgot that COD has the CFS now so I went there and flipped through the run. You can see how it's a much better look than what we've had...not that the bar is high for that lol. Yeah my interest is around April 7-10th, beyond that the prospects do look better for more troughing out west compared to previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 The 18z GFS can go to hell with that +20" hit in MN the first week of April. Garbage. April is MN prime time with da snow. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 GFS and Euro giving us 70's and Tstorms on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2015 Author Share Posted March 28, 2015 The 18z GFS can go to hell with that +20" hit in MN the first week of April. Garbage. You could use some precip there, snow or rain, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 You could use some precip there, snow or rain, just saying. Yeah, we totally need whatever precip we can get. I was just saying that GFS run is going to be a tease, not that I don't want a nice thump of snow. As I fully expected, it's already completely changed on the 0z and 06z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Anybody see the 00z Euro at 168 hours? Very dynamic looking system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Anybody see the 00z Euro at 168 hours? Very dynamic looking system. Yeah, with -teen C 850's dumping into the Great Lakes behind it on Easter Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2015 Author Share Posted March 28, 2015 Anybody see the 00z Euro at 168 hours? Very dynamic looking system. Looks like the 12z Euro wraps it up as well between 144 and 168. We have a rapidly deepening surface low with a decent warm sector for it to work with at 18z 4/3 (60s dews into central IL/IN/OH), 25-40 kts of 0-1 km shear and 55-70 kts of 0-6 km shear. This would have potential to be a rather substantial severe weather threat. The area in central IL at this time near the warm front is particularly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Yeah, with -teen C 850's dumping into the Great Lakes behind it on Easter Sunday. Don't believe. Baseball starts next weekend. Should be sunny and 66 for the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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