dmc76 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 IMO for SEMI Summer: Memorial Day till Labor Day Fall: Labor Day till Halloween Winter: Halloween till Opening Day Spring: Opening Day till Memorial Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Summer that late? When I lived in N Indiana around the same lat as Toledo, I remember a nice cool down usually within the first 10 days of Sept that made me feel like Summer had gone. Late summer (September) can be wildly erratic around here. My birthday is September 21st, the day before the autumn equinox depending on the year, and I can remember days where it was 51, raining, windy, and the leaves were turning. I also can remember plenty of times it was near 90 and people were swimming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Interesting battle between the Euro and GFS for Tue/Wed with the ejection of the Pac NW energy... GFS more phased and in one piece, providing quick cyclogenesis over the Midwest. While the Euro has two separate shortwaves, leading to a fairly broad area of low pressure. Both solutions is a snowstorm for the Northern Plans though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Man alive. The end of March and the GFS has 850 mb temps below 0C in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Man alive. The end of March and the GFS has 850 mb temps below 0C in the Gulf. gfs_namer_162_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif One, that is extremely unlikely and two, will most certainly change on the next run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 We have been more above then below in March so far. I remember over a foot of snow falling on the last weekend of April before. It shouldn't be a surprise to have colder then normal temps this time of year we do live in Michigan. Heck I remember a Ice storm that lasted several days before in April with power outages that lasted a week. I just don't get this "oh my god i cant believe this is happening" post. April 2005 for the snowstorm, April 2003 for the ice storm, I'm going to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 I'd say for Toronto it is: Winter - 4.5 months Spring - 2 months Summer - 3.5 months Fall - 2 months I don't know what the criteria is, but if we're just going on "feel", I'd say winter in Toronto is more like 3.5 months tops. Cooler early Springs because of the Lakes, but I'd still call drizzly and 40 Spring more than Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 One, that is extremely unlikely and two, will most certainly change on the next run of the GFS. Euro is tamer but still has it getting deep into the South. Models overdid the southward push of weekend cold at this range though so maybe it'll back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 This really is an ideal track for a MSP snowstorm...the problem is the inverted trough over the Northern Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 GFS vs. Euro at Day 7. Which will verify? You make the call. My vote goes to the model with the Green Card. lolgfs.png ecmwf_T850_us_8.png Euro wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Euro wins. gfs_T850_us_1.png Let's not forget that it went much colder on later progs. I guess it was less bad than the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Let's not forget that it went much colder on later progs. I guess it was less bad than the GFS though. True. I guess my point was that at the time the GFS was way overdoing the trough and accompanying 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 As accurate as that is, I can still understand frustration, case in point my mention in the March thread of not having a thunderstorm for almost 5 months. Even in normal years you have seasons clash in the winter once in a while. I remember a clap of thunder on Christmas Eve.... Though it wasn't exactly stormy. Today is the first day of no piles of snow in the drive and a dozen Robins frolicking in the front yard. I'll admit a tease of warmth has me looking forward in toastyness. Wile the - EPO (slightly) and a crazy looking MJO sector 8 is saying keep the jackets handy. Today is sunny and raw compared to late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 I remember a clap of thunder on Christmas Eve.... Though it wasn't exactly stormy. Today is the first day of no piles of snow in the drive and a dozen Robins frolicking in the front yard. I'll admit a tease of warmth has me looking forward in toastyness. Wile the - EPO (slightly) and a crazy looking MJO sector 8 is saying keep the jackets handy. Today is sunny and raw compared to late. Yeah there was one where I was too, but officially at Metro they didn't have a thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 IMO for SEMI Summer: Memorial Day till Labor Day Fall: Labor Day till Halloween Winter: Halloween till Opening Day Spring: Opening Day till Memorial Day Mostly agree. Its pretty subjective, but thats an overall good estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 IMO for SEMI Summer: Memorial Day till Labor Day Fall: Labor Day till Halloween Winter: Halloween till Opening Day Spring: Opening Day till Memorial Day This can't be based on sensible wx though, right? November to me seems to pretty clearly be an autumn month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 I just looked at late this week/next weekend. Model consensus of 0° C 850's into the Gulf with temps well into the minus teens across the subforum as Hoosier alluded to yesterday. The GFS and ECMWF in agreement. Depressing for the last weekend of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 I just looked at late this week/next weekend. Model consensus of 0° C 850's into the Gulf with temps well into the minus teens across the subforum as Hoosier alluded to yesterday. The GFS and ECMWF in agreement. Depressing for the last weekend of March. That should be the last really wintery cold shot though for a decent period of time given the shifting that is projected to occur following that, it seems to be consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 This can't be based on sensible wx though, right? November to me seems to pretty clearly be an autumn month. As said, this entire discussion is subjective. Autumn is a colorful harvest season, by November, everything is bare and dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 As said, this entire discussion is subjective. Autumn is a colorful harvest season, by November, everything is bare and dead. Of course. But I'm still curious as to how people formulate their seasons. If we divided the year into two halves (warm wx season/cold wx season), I'd put November in the latter for sure but it's much too mild for me personally to call it winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Possible lake effect snow setup off of southern Lake Michigan for Friday, though a glance suggests the parameters aren't terribly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 This can't be based on sensible wx though, right? November to me seems to pretty clearly be an autumn month. depends on where you live, Nov was clearly Winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Possible lake effect snow setup off of southern Lake Michigan for Friday, though a glance suggests the parameters aren't terribly impressive. IWX mentioned as much in their afternoon discussion, although low/mid level dry layer would be a mitigating factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 depends on where you live, Nov was clearly Winter here. Yeah, I think that whoever started this was wondering about people's back yards. Obviously, your area would be much different than mine and our KY posters would have yet another take on it. The same could be said from east to west. From a climatological perspective, our subforum is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Of course. But I'm still curious as to how people formulate their seasons. If we divided the year into two halves (warm wx season/cold wx season), I'd put November in the latter for sure but it's much too mild for me personally to call it winter. Me personally.... I like dmc's breakdown, but If I had to take a step back and think about it and assign timeframes, Id say.... Winter- Early November to Early April Spring- Early April to Late May Summer- Late May to Mid Sept Fall - Mid Sept to Early November No, it does not snow constantly from early Nov thru the early Apr, nor is it constantly hot from late May thru mid Sept. A typical November here is mid-winter in, say, Tennessee, and a Tennessean will tell you that "we have winter down here" (used TN as an example as I have distant relatives who live there). Once the trees are just about completely bare (early Nov) I consider that winter. id call "deep winter" mid-Dec to late-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 April 2005 for the snowstorm, April 2003 for the ice storm, I'm going to guess. Yes sir! April 2003 power was out at my parents house for 7 days. We had several days of Ice then to top it off we had a 6" snowfall. April 23-25, 2005 up to 16" fell across This area. I have always said if this storm was just 3-4 weeks earlier...would have been over two feet across much if SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 I heard the Euro weeklies look pretty good (as in not cold) after early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Almost countrywide warmth on a number of the recent CFS runs for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 getting better, still looks cool east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Long range looks like it wants to spit out a snowstorm beyond April 1. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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