cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Both GFS and Euro indicating some thunder potential Tuesday evening. Both showing a corridor of 500-1000j/kg cape in Missouri up into southeast Iowa later Tuesday afternoon. That weakens as it drifts east, but the thunderstorms it kicks off should last several hours, as there looks to be just enough cape to sustain them for awhile. Nothing crazy or anything, but it would be nice to hear the first rumbles of thunder in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 broken record disaster pattern That would be more cold and dry, but at least this looks to be chilly and wet, at least for the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Sunday night/Monday morning looks like we might get some snow here. Thermals look cold enough for all snow. Then again on Tuesday/Wednesday. GEM is more bullish on totals but all the models bring some much needed precip to the area. Mid-week system has me somewhat interested. There's a couple decent hits on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 That thing about old habits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 Euro weeklies had things transitioning after that, hopefully it isn't another mirage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Euro weeklies had things transitioning after that, hopefully it isn't another mirage. Mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 Mid-April. Yeah that's where the effects of the shift would start showing themselves more in terms of sensible wx, but what happens across the Pacific over the next 2-3 weeks will need to be monitored closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 That thing about old habits 810.gif suicidebooth.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Euro weeklies had things transitioning after that, hopefully it isn't another mirage. Mid-April. Weatherbell has been saying for the past few weeks that the pattern breaks for good around April 15th. Hopefully they're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Mid-week system has me somewhat interested. There's a couple decent hits on the GEFS. Yeah models aren't in agreement (shocker) but I'm also interested. Especially since I'm flying back to MSP from Chicago. Great timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I was curious about something earlier so I looked it up, the last time we had a thunderstorm was October 28th almost 5 months ago. If we don't manage something on Wednesday which is marginal at best for thunder, we may very well end the month of March without a thunderstorm and run the streak over 5 months. Pretty incredible when you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 That thing about old habits 810.gif Oh come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Oh come on. Stop with these bull**** posts. You live in Michigan not Arkansas. We have seen flurries in May. Get over it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Stop with these bull**** posts. You live in Michigan not Arkansas. We have seen flurries in May. Get over it!! Apparently I live in Barrow, Alaska now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Stop with these bull**** posts. You live in Michigan not Arkansas. We have seen flurries in May. Get over it!! When you have the deep blues over you that is significantly below normal, IthielZ has a point that it is a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 When you have the deep blues over you that is significantly below normal, IthielZ has a point that it is a bit much. We have been more above then below in March so far. I remember over a foot of snow falling on the last weekend of April before. It shouldn't be a surprise to have colder then normal temps this time of year we do live in Michigan. Heck I remember a Ice storm that lasted several days before in April with power outages that lasted a week. I just don't get this "oh my god i cant believe this is happening" post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 We have been more above then below in March so far. I remember over a foot of snow falling on the last weekend of April before. It shouldn't be a surprise to have colder then normal temps this time of year we do live in Michigan. Heck I remember a Ice storm that lasted several days before in April with power outages that lasted a week. I just don't get this "oh my god i cant believe this is happening" post. Why don't you get it, people are tired of winter. It has been reasonably nice lately, so of course people don't want to plunge back into the freezer. Also consider, we are discussing this in a Spring thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Why don't you get it, people are tired of winter. It has been reasonably nice lately, so of course people don't want to plunge back into the freezer. Also consider, we are discussing this in a Spring thread. kinda true for Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 kinda true for Michigan 22581_10152888491298375_5350787793440954913_n.jpg lol Ive seen that posted many times. For sattire it isnt far off. By far the longest season is winter, then summer. Spring/fall are too short (I dont mind the shortness of spring at all but I could go for a much longer Fall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 lol Ive seen that posted many times. For sattire it isnt far off. By far the longest season is winter, then summer. Spring/fall are too short (I dont mind the shortness of spring at all but I could go for a much longer Fall). here's my breakdown preference: Winter 5 months Spring (since it's pretty cold here) 1.5 months Summer 3 months Fall (Way to short in the UP) 2.5 months In actuality here: Winter 6 months Spring 2.5 months Summer 2.5 months Fall 1.5 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I'd say for Toronto it is: Winter - 4.5 months Spring - 2 months Summer - 3.5 months Fall - 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Lol what an arbitrary discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 buzz off then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 kinda true for Michigan 22581_10152888491298375_5350787793440954913_n.jpg As accurate as that is, I can still understand frustration, case in point my mention in the March thread of not having a thunderstorm for almost 5 months. Even in normal years you have seasons clash in the winter once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 If present trends hold, perhaps the first slight risk of 2015 in this subforum on Tuesday? (At least most of MO, and small parts of southern IA and western IL):http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD. GFS IS STRONGER WITH ITS SPEED MAX APPROACHING 100KT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS NRN KS INTO NRN MO BY 25/00Z. THIS STRONGER SOLUTION FORCES A DEEPER SFC LOW OVER IA BY PEAK HEATING WHILE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH LOW OVER MO. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY RETURN ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FOR A THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WHILE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS IA/NRN MO...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO NERN OK WHERE HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER. LATER DAY5...TRAILING FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BEFORE UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORCES THE FRONT SEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE SEVERE PROBS WILL NOT CURRENTLY BE INTRODUCED ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT...SCT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO AR WEDNESDAY. WILL MONITOR THIS REGION AS AN ADDITIONAL DAY FOR MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE GIVEN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..DARROW.. 03/21/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 kinda true for Michigan 22581_10152888491298375_5350787793440954913_n.jpg So true. As accurate as that is, I can still understand frustration, case in point my mention in the March thread of not having a thunderstorm for almost 5 months. Even in normal years you have seasons clash in the winter once in a while. I don't really mind the cold so much, it's the boring weather pattern that makes it bad. Literally nothing good comes out of prolonged cold with no precipitation. If it was still getting down to around 0 I wouldn't care if it was in the wake of some snow. I like snow, just not pointless cold weather that comes with no fanfare on bare ground. It's like we're in limbo right now. Not quite winter, not quite spring and that's worse than if we were getting nailed by a clipper train or something and I was still shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Toledo goes like this... Winter: Thanksgiving to St Pattys Day Spring: to Memorial Day Summer: to my birthday (September 26) Fall: till Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 If present trends hold, perhaps the first slight risk of 2015 in this subforum on Tuesday? (At least most of MO, and small parts of southern IA and western IL): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK It will probably be the first slight risk anywhere in the country since Feb. 25th, pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Toledo goes like this... Winter: Thanksgiving to St Pattys Day Spring: to Memorial Day Summer: to my birthday (September 26) Fall: till Thanksgiving Summer that late? When I lived in N Indiana around the same lat as Toledo, I remember a nice cool down usually within the first 10 days of Sept that made me feel like Summer had gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Spring almost always seems pretty short around here. Usually from the last week of March through the middle of May. If it's one of those years where the wind happens to be off the water often later, then sometimes even early June can feel like Spring still! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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