andyhb Posted March 15, 2015 Author Share Posted March 15, 2015 You mean the period from mid April to the end of May will feature severe weather? That seems more like reciting climo than anything. He's talking more than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 He's talking more than average. Well hopefully he's right. I'd rather track that than impending drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2015 Author Share Posted March 15, 2015 Well hopefully he's right. I'd rather track that than impending drought. http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-march-14-2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 You mean the period from mid April to the end of May will feature severe weather? That seems more like reciting climo than anything. Severe weather occurrences were apparently down for the past couple of seasons. This year he's hinting at a 45 day period of above average occurrences. http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-march-14-2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 you all ready for some zonal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2015 Author Share Posted March 15, 2015 you all ready for some zonal? Beats NW flow hell any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 GFS vs. Euro at Day 7. Which will verify? You make the call. My vote goes to the model with the Green Card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 GFS vs. Euro at Day 7. Which will verify? You make the call. My vote goes to the model with the Green Card. lolgfs.png ecmwf_T850_us_8.png I'd vote that way too. GFS seems absurdly cold in the day 7 range. It's own ensemble mean doesn't seem to support it either and obviously no support from Euro as you posted. Maybe the final outcome is slightly cooler than the Euro, but I'd hedge my forecast in that direction right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 GFS vs. Euro at Day 7. Which will verify? You make the call. My vote goes to the model with the Green Card. lolgfs.png ecmwf_T850_us_8.png Whatever gives Boston another big dog. That will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Whatever gives Boston another big dog. That will verify. One vote for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 ECMWF .... the times are a changing....and not just the season...imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 I compared the 00z/12z ECMWF runs, and the 12z did get colder valid 12z Sunday but still nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 lolgfs.png :axe: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Hopefully it moderates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 Well if this tornado season comes in with the ferocity that this winter did in Jan through Feb, might want to start digging storm cellars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Well if this tornado season comes in with the ferocity that this winter did in Jan through Feb, might want to start digging storm cellars. We all know that historically there have been multi day svr weather outbreaks with system after system following another. It would be concerning if the dam breaks in mid April to allow us to experience an enhanced, entrenched pattern of svr wx as JB seems to be hinting over a longer course of time, just as we have been plagued with nw flow for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 ECMWF has definitely trended colder with this cold shot since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 ECMWF has definitely trended colder with this cold shot since yesterday ecmwf.gif Luckily it is transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Luckily it is transient A lot of sun would go a long way in this regime, otherwise it's just going to feel uncomfortable especially given our current taste of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Transient? Or does it stick around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Transient? Or does it stick around Up and down like a yo-yo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 ECMWF has definitely trended colder with this cold shot since yesterday ecmwf.gif Interestingly enough the GFS trended more flat with the cold shot, the -20c air at 850 goes into N NY state, instead of dropping in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 ECMWF has definitely trended colder with this cold shot since yesterday ecmwf.gif I know it is highly unlikely to verify even if it wasn't a crapshoot this far out, but I noticed towards the end of the last GFS run it was showing some spots in PA getting down to -10F. Nightmare material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Weather has been very dry here and boring. With the upcoming cool down I don't see much harm in the event other than slowing down the spring and the pleasant weather. Not like the Morch disaster. Slow and steady is my preference ... beautiful weather will be here soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The GFS's cruel April Fools joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Models have really backed off on the southern extent of the weekend cold. Was looking like we could have 850 mb temps way below 0C here and now may not even get below 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Models have really backed off on the southern extent of the weekend cold. Was looking like we could have 850 mb temps way below 0C here and now may not even get below 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Sunday night/Monday morning looks like we might get some snow here. Thermals look cold enough for all snow. Then again on Tuesday/Wednesday. GEM is more bullish on totals but all the models bring some much needed precip to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 broken record disaster pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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