andyhb Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Moving past the midpoint of February with a very cold pattern entrenched, it would seem that spring will be slow to appear in this particular region looking towards March 1st. Teleconnections do seem to suggest that some of the cold from the east may start to be moderated towards the end of the month with the PNA dropping negative along with a continued +NAO and the +AO going through the roof potentially. Whether this will actually be significant for this region seems dubious given the extreme cold currently and forecast over the next week and it certainly won't be enough to pull GL/OV out of one of the colder Februarys in recent memory, but there does appear to be a decent amount of agreement for the western positive height anomaly to retrograde over the coming weeks. This support includes the medium range ensemble guidance and CPC analogs. Lastly (and least), the recent CFSv2 one month outlooks would support a much warmer pattern over the eastern half of the US with a trough over the West for March thanks to retrograding of the ridge to a position centered over the Aleutians, but this should obviously be taken with quite a few grains of salt. I'm also mostly mentioning this because it would support a potentially very active month for severe wx. PNA forecast (all time sensitive): NAO forecast: AO forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 lol, Andy's jonesin' for severe while I'm staring -25°F wind chills in the face. I hope you're right, but it seems like this pattern is pretty locked in. Maybe an early start in the Plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Maybe we can eventually pull off some good northwest flow severe events if we're still locked in with a predominant northwest flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 temp2_glob_MAM2015_1feb2015.gif Depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 What spring? I'm thinking it will be one to two weeks long this year sometime in April and May, then perhaps we'll dive right into summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Bump for this thread since we need to discuss spring. I noticed that the Gulf of Mexico south of LA is significantly warmer than usual for this time of year. Might this portend increased moisture availability to any storm systems that develop? And will we have a nw flow storm regime this coming spring? There will certainly be enough cold air to get good lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Larry Cosgrove's April analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Hmmmm.... LC i like your thinking.... Don S have a forecast out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Larry Cosgrove's April analogs... I see he's double weighting 1959 and 1977, but when you look at the years individually, the results are quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Boy that skews things a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 axesmiley x10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 axesmiley x10 Maybe some snow for my birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 axesmiley x10 cfs.png You should see all the chasers talking on FB about the CFS now since we put it up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 stoked for my spring LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 You should see all the chasers talking on FB about the CFS now since we put it up lol I think we've drilled through rock bottom at this point and are well on the way to the Earth's core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Snooze. Fest. Yawn. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Some epic boring stuff going forward. I'm starting to have that t-storms itch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Some epic boring stuff going forward. I'm starting to have that t-storms itch. Outside of last years 8-10" event (a decent storm for sure), March's have just NOT been very exciting for our area storm wise over the past several years. I seriously cannot think of a truly memorable March storm event (not necessary just snow either) in the past 10-15 years for our area (note I am talking Livingston/Oakland counties in MI where dmc and I live). I really hope this dry pattern breaks as we get into end of this month and more importantly April. In the past couple days I haven't even check the models other 1-2 times a day right now. Since yesterdays 12Z EURO I checked 6Z GFS and 0Z EURO ... Yes I agree thunderstorms sound very good right now but being March ... ... we have a bit to go for our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 feeling optimistic that the imminent cool down will be relatively brief and not all that severe. Suspect we flip back warm near the end of the month, possible for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 feeling optimistic that the imminent cool down will be relatively brief and not all that severe. Suspect we flip back warm near the end of the month, possible for good. I'm getting that sense as well. Looked like it was going to be a relatively severe period of cold coming in after the 20th thru the first week of April but models are muting the cold and pushing it further back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 I'm getting that sense as well. Looked like it was going to be a relatively severe period of cold coming in after the 20th thru the first week of April but models are muting the cold and pushing it further back. Looks like the MJO is having some good influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 I'm also getting that sense too that this cold wave this month will not be significant or even notable, so far the actual conditions I've experienced are no where near what I thought it was going to be, a relief after the worst February. My 7-day forecast hasn't been highlighting anything I deem negative so my optimism is increasing. The sunshine is good, melt rate far faster than last year (more than a month ahead!), and temperatures at average or slightly above some days. All the predictions I'm ignoring and I'm taking control of the emotional "weather-ship" instead of letting it pull me down, I'm done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 I'm also getting that sense too that this cold wave this month will not be significant or even notable, so far the actual conditions I've experienced are no where near what I thought it was going to be, a relief after the worst February. My 7-day forecast hasn't been highlighting anything I deem negative so my optimism is increasing. The sunshine is good, melt rate far faster than last year (more than a month ahead!), and temperatures at average or slightly above some days. All the predictions I'm ignoring and I'm taking control of the emotional "weather-ship" instead of letting it pull me down, I'm done with it.Torch on torchageddon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Both the GFS and Euro ensembles show lower heights moving out of the west and into the plains towards the end of the month. Might be hinting towards our next appreciable storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I will say this...even after a cool down next week...if temps remain above normal, that would be one of the longer stretches above above normal temps that i can remember in quite some time (including this week thru next week)...December could have had this similiar stretch if we weren't draped in clouds from that cutoff in the eastern lakes i suppose. Either way, for the first time in awhile i am giving a significant nod to a somewhat different pattern lining up (for better or worse) .... imo fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I will say this...even after a cool down next week...if temps remain above normal, that would be one of the longer stretches above above normal temps that i can remember in quite some time (including this week thru next week)...December could have had this similiar stretch if we weren't draped in clouds from that cutoff in the eastern lakes i suppose. Either way, for the first time in awhile i am giving a significant nod to a somewhat different pattern lining up (for better or worse) .... imo fwiw This isn't a good sign for above average temps in the extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 This isn't a good sign for above average temps in the extended True....that actually looks somewhat similiar to what panned out in December. Not saying the pattern is changing 100% compared to the last few years...but still gonna give the possiblility a bigger nod than any other time the last year or so... Then again, i haven't dug too deep into stuff and am still getting over this dang pnuemonia...so completely take my feelings with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14, 2015 Author Share Posted March 14, 2015 Seems JB is hitting the idea of an active period for svr wx from 4/15 to 5/30 hard recently, can't yet see what he is looking at (since I don't have wxbell premium and his weekly video hasn't updated). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Seems JB is hitting the idea of an active period for svr wx from 4/15 to 5/30 hard recently, can't yet see what he is looking at (since I don't have wxbell premium and his weekly video hasn't updated). You mean the period from mid April to the end of May will feature severe weather? That seems more like reciting climo than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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