AirNelson39 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good catch, Nelson! Here's his lengthier FB post: Wow, I'm liking the sound of this. Would be one heck of a memorable unique storm. Guess crazy things can happen when you get crazy temps like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The SREF snowfall means (in inches) are climbing for WNC locales: KHKY: 1.34 KTNB: 2.91 KGEV: 2.59 KMWK: 2.60 KAVL: 1.27 KRHP: 0.59 KGSO: 0.52 KCLT: 0.43 KEHO: 0.60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looking like the upstate crowd might be on the outside looking in on this one...just a hair too north for us I'm afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Canadian looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looking like the upstate crowd might be on the outside looking in on this one...just a hair too north for us I'm afraidDepends on what model you believe. If you believe the GFS then you are probably right. But if you go with the NAM or RGEM or CMC then there's a good chance of upstate seeing up to an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Canadian does put down 1-2" imby, so there is hope I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The SREF snowfall means (in inches) are climbing for WNC locales: KHKY: 1.34 KTNB: 2.91 KGEV: 2.59 KMWK: 2.60 KAVL: 1.27 KRHP: 0.59 KGSO: 0.52 KCLT: 0.43 KEHO: 0.60 Got one for KFQD ? Should be close to KHEO since that is only 30+ miles to the east. Thanks Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll buy what the Canadians are selling. I'll take my inch or two and like it! Although it seems like the Canadians are always the ones selling the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Got one for KFQD ? Should be close to KHEO since that is only 30+ miles to the east. Thanks No, but KEHO is just SW of Shelby proper. KFQD is not on the SREF plume map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll buy what the Canadians are selling. I'll take my inch or two and like it! Although it seems like the Canadians are always the ones selling the snow.One thing that makes me believe that is the colder air. This one is a lot colder than this last one. So Id say it most defiantly starts as snow, The question is how long can it stay snow before the changeover starts? That wil be the tale of how much snow we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 No, but KEHO is just SW of Shelby proper. KFQD is not on the SREF plume map. Cool. That's what I thought. In transit so hard to look. Thanks man Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 12z Canadian looks a lot better. Maybe we can get a sneaky 1-3" from this. Hell, the GFS doesn't look too bad either to an extent. Of course, then there's a legitimate Big Dog NAM'ING on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I meant it hasn't trended closer on the GFS though the 12Z or through the 0Z Euro. I wasn't looking at the RGEM. I meant in general it hasn't trended closer to ATL. Regarding the drier flow vs. the mountains , I meant that the mountains will typically do better than down in ATL in this kind of situation due to them having a better opportunity to wring out whatever moisture is there. I'm trying to prevent hopes from being raised too much in ATL to better reflect what I feel is reality. Otherwise, there's liable to be lots of whining. I'm looking this as a total surprise if it ends up being something in ATL. Ok, we agree completely. I was just a bit more curious at some more expansion on the comments you made. Thank you Larry. The underlined is hilariously correct as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 12z Canadian looks a lot better. Maybe we can get a sneaky 1-3" from this. Hell, the GFS doesn't look too bad either to an extent. Of course, then there's a legitimate Big Dog NAM'ING on the 12z NAM. The earlier we can get the moisture in here the better, obviously. I've thought this storm was looking like cold rain since it came on the radar, but I'm starting to have some hope. Like you said, there are a few models that show us getting a good clip of precip that should result in snow before the upper layers warm in this area. We need some stuff to go right, but I think the Triad has a decent shot at some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 For areas in and around ATL, I'm really confused as to what FFC is seeing with this system. It appears to be almost entirely moisture starved, yet I'm looking at a 50% pop of sleet/snow tomorrow evening close to 0z before changing to rain around 06z on Saturday. At this point though, I think this is trending high and dry for anyone outside of the NW. Just doesn't make any sense. What are they seeing that I can't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 For areas in and around ATL, I'm really confused as to what FFC is seeing with this system. It appears to be almost entirely moisture starved, yet I'm looking at a 50% pop of sleet/snow tomorrow evening close to 0z before changing to rain around 06z on Saturday. At this point though, I think this is trending high and dry for anyone outside of the NW. Just doesn't make any sense. What are they seeing that I can't? The CAD favored areas are more likely to see something frozen I think. Those areas will hold on to the cold air longer and anything that falls may be frozen for a longer period of time. Plus, the CAD areas can generate their own precip simply by having the warm moist air override the cold. Mist, drizzle, etc all accompany CAD's at my house, and that type of precip is not resolved by the models very well. Again, I'm speculating at this point. Looks pretty dry to me too. Plenty wet in TN though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I still don't understand meterologically how a low in TX/LA is going to get enough precip in this area before it cuts. If I had to bet, I'd say east of the mountains in NC stays dry until the front comes through. I've never seen such a thing. I could be wrong though, I just don't understand what's shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like the Euro is still a no-go east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like the Euro is still a no-go east of the Apps. Nope - most of the Carolinas can keep dreaming about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nope - most of the Carolinas can keep dreaming about this one. ecmwf_tsnow_nc_11.png ecmwf_tsnow_atl_11.png So whatever the Euro says is a guarantee? If I had all the snow the Euro has predicted for MBY this winter I would have 40 some inches so far!!! Now It very well could be right, Not saying it's not.... But when the others models come to the Euro's out come I will throw in the towel on this one!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro did come in wetter for western nc. For now sw of Asheville the low end looks to be around 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I don't see nothing on the 12z CMC that makes me want to throw in the towel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 So whatever the Euro says is a guarantee? If I had all the snow the Euro has predicted for MBY this winter I would have 40 some inches so far!!! Now It very well could be right, Not saying it's not.... But when the others models come to the Euro's out come I will throw in the towel on this one!!!! Sounds like you just got Dr. No'ed. I know you mentioned getting NAM'ed earlier.... If I had all of the snow the NAM and GFS showed this year I'd be still shoveling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Sounds like you just got Dr. No'ed. I know you mentioned getting NAM'ed earlier.... If I had all of the snow the NAM and GFS showed this year I'd be still shoveling right now. Yes I can say the same about those models also! You were just talking about Euro is the reason I posted about it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yes I can say the same about those models also! You were just talking about Euro is the reason I posted about it.... Just need that overriding moisture to tick south about 50 miles and I'm game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just need that overriding moisture to tick south about 50 miles and I'm game! Hopefully it will, I hope everybody gets a winter storm out of this!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If I had all of the snow _______ showed this year I'd be still shoveling right now. Fill in the blank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 SREF plumes ticked a bit better for the Triad region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Here's a little tid bit from GSP's discussion. Seem's to think the warming of temperatures Saturday maybe overdone on the models if a CAD develops. We will have very low DP leading up to this storm. TEMPS RISE SLOWLY SATURDAY...BUT OUT OF WINTRY PRECIPTERRITORY BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH ISINITIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF HYBRID CAD DEVELOPING...BUT THE UPPER FLOWDOES NOT ALLOW IT TO REMAIN FIXED NEAR THE COAST. THIS TO SAY THETEMP FORECAST IS PRESENTLY A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC...SINCE IF CAD WERE TODEVELOP IT COULD FURTHER HINDER WARMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yes I can say the same about those models also! You were just talking about Euro is the reason I posted about it.... Please tell me which model has been the most accurate . BF you are right ask those people in NY how the Euro Faired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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