BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hi-Res NAM composite radar is super juicy for NC. I'll take that and a bag of popcorn please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 RGEM seems better for W-NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 winter storm watches may go up later today for wnc and western va. and winter weather advisories for the upstate and ne. ga.. we'll see. think the storm will produce more frozen precip than the thinking right now Much of North GA has been under a winter storm watch since yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 RGEM seems better for W-NC...Any precip make it down to the ATL? This is looking pretty bleak for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Much of North GA has been under a winter storm watch since yesterday afternoon. I expect those to change to advisories soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I-20 North in GA should experience some wintery precip, the question is how much and what kind at this point. It'll be interesting to see what FFC does with the Winter Storm Watch for N. Ga. You can tell from their discussion that one of the reasons it was posted relatively early was due to the timing, i.e. Friday afternoon possibly around rush hour. You know they don't want any part of a replay of snowmaggedon 2014. That being said, it just doesn't look like there's going to be enough moisture to really make for an interesting event, at least in Atlanta and points south. The NAM does luck jucier, but this is just an unusual setup, it'll be interesting to see how things unfold. This is a prime nowcasting event, heck, if things develop even 50 miles further south than models show, we could have a nice little storm on our hands. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Any precip make it down to the ATL? This is looking pretty bleak for us. this is pretty much a non event for the Atlanta area. Just like every storm system this winter, it has trended worse within 48 hours of the storm. Atlanta is now in serious danger of getting no snow or ice this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Any precip make it down to the ATL? This is looking pretty bleak for us. A little sleet per RGEM... http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Atlanta&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 It'll be interesting to see what FFC does with the Winter Storm Watch for N. Ga. You can tell from their discussion that one of the reasons it was posted relatively early was due to the timing, i.e. Friday afternoon possibly around rush hour. You know they don't want any part of a replay of snowmaggedon 2014. That being said, it just doesn't look like there's going to be enough moisture to really make for an interesting event, at least in Atlanta and points south. The NAM does luck jucier, but this is just an unusual setup, it'll be interesting to see how things unfold. This is a prime nowcasting event, heck, if things develop even 50 miles further south than models show, we could have a nice little storm on our hands. - Buck Agreed, if the overrunning is a touch stronger than the models are projecting then you can easily ramp up the wintery precip in GA north of 20 to warning criteria, jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 this is pretty much a non event for the Atlanta area. Just like every storm system this winter, it has trended worse within 48 hours of the storm. Atlanta is now in serious danger of getting no snow or ice this winter. It really hasn't trended much worse for the Atlanta area.....most models even a few days ago showed a pretty sharp cutoff in N. Ga. just north of the Atlanta area. Most of the models have held pretty consistent for Georgia regarding this event. The only thing that may help Atlanta out is if things develop a good 50 to 75 miles further south than models indicate. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hi-Res NAM composite radar is super juicy for NC. That radar is almost the shape of where the (insitu) CAD would be. **very low dew points to start and plenty of snow coverage to the north. I'm keeping my expectations down to maybe a little front end snow/sleet but man this looks similar to the last event where the models could not handle the low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 My point for GA is don't give up yet... The players are literally on the field lets see where they decide to setup tomorrow afternoon. Obviously the safe bet would be to take what the models say verbatim but as we saw earlier this week you can't do that and be right every time. I-20 North in GA is still a possible target of the storm this weekend. A 50 mile shift south would have huge implications on who gets what and how much. If the precip can setup a bit farther south with the front end precip then watch out. Temps if not below freezing would crash hard and cause a huge mess Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Really we only have one model thats not showing precip further south and that the GFS. The others look pretty juicy even for NeGa and upstate. Im interested in seeing if the GFS starts some southern trends, If not I think it would be safe to throw that model out, but then again who knows it may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The RGEM definitely ticked south and faster with the precip into W NC when compared to the early run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's pretty simple...if warning criteria snow falls further south than is forecast, then they'll get to warning criteria. C'mon man. - Buck Lol! It wouldn't take much of a shift to really hit I20 north with a good storm. The cutoff is pretty sharp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Still snowing in western nc and far north ga mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Lol! It wouldn't take much of a shift to really hit I20 north with a good storm. The cutoff is pretty sharpAs 90% of the time this will more than likeky be a I85 storm. If you are north of that line in GA and Upstate then you will have a good shot at a pretty decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 As 90% of the time this will more than likeky be a I85 storm. If you are north of that line in GA and Upstate then you will have a good shot at a pretty decent event. sweet. I am north of I-85. I like the sound of an I-85 north storm better than an I-20 north storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS is pretty close to 6z for N GA. Looks like more QPF vs. 6z to our North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This continues to look mainly like a mountains of N GA kind of storm. Also, this is a dry flow for ATL. The precip. has not trended back closer to there. More than likely, yesterday's snow shower activity will turn out to be more than what this system will do with regard to snow, which is likely to be nothing. So, if ATL doesn't get anything and the mountains get a good bit, ATL would not be getting "screwed" in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Well The 12z GFS did come in more inline with the other models especially across the upstate area. So It looks to me like it shifted winter precip a little further south. This is really starting to look like a pretty decent storm that could produce 1-2" across NeGa and the upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This continues to look mainly like a mountains of N GA kind of storm. Also, this is a dry flow for ATL. The precip. has not trended back closer to there. More than likely, yesterday's snow shower activity will turn out to be more than what this system will do with regard to snow, which is likely to be nothing. So, if ATL doesn't get anything and the mountains get a good bit, ATL would not be getting "screwed" in any way. Yeah Larry I'm right on the edge here in the Dawsonville area. Looks to be an extremely sharp cutoff area. Gonna be a nowcast type of system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is there any sort of chance that this could stay all frozen in the CAD zones? I'm pretty sure the track isn't going to shift to the track we just had with the last system, but what if this arctic air is undermodeled? Also, not sure about the last time I remember seeing frozen precip on the east side of a system that's ultimately riding up the Apps. What an odd setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Solid trends. It's been a long time since we've "reeled one in" that looked dead in the water. Still a long way to go, but if this wedge is even stronger than the last (as it should be), there could again be some surprises, especially if the faster/wetter trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 This continues to look mainly like a mountains of N GA kind of storm. Also, this is a dry flow for ATL. The precip. has not trended back closer to there. More than likely, yesterday's snow shower activity will turn out to be more than what this system will do with regard to snow, which is likely to be nothing. So, if ATL doesn't get anything and the mountains get a good bit, ATL would not be getting "screwed" in any way. How can this setup be a dry flow for Atlanta but not the case for NC and the N. GA mountains? Everything else seems pretty reasonable, the models continue to hit the Northern counties but leave the metro counties pretty much out of it. That said the metro counties are only 50 miles from a big event, that's not out of the margin of error imo. While it may not be likely this can trend farther south, I also disagree with you about the precip, it has trended a little closer to the ATL metro imo. Looking at the RGEM you can see ATL is very close to getting in on the storm and the NWS WSW is only two counties north of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z NAM would keep RDU no higher than the 40s for highs (below normal) on Sunday before the next surge of cold air. Not really important but it emphases the continued cold February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Huntsville has posted Winter Storm Watches for the northern counties of Alabama...just like Atlanta, just to the north of BHM. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 How can this setup be a dry flow for Atlanta but not the case for NC and the N. GA mountains? Everything else seems pretty reasonable, the models continue to hit the Northern counties but leave the metro counties pretty much out of it. That said the metro counties are only 50 miles from a big event, that's not out of the margin of error imo. While it may not be likely this can trend farther south, I also disagree with you about the precip, it has trended a little closer to the ATL metro imo. Looking at the RGEM you can see ATL is very close to getting in on the storm and the NWS WSW is only two counties north of them. I meant it hasn't trended closer on the GFS though the 12Z or through the 0Z Euro. I wasn't looking at the RGEM. I meant in general it hasn't trended closer to ATL. Regarding the drier flow vs. the mountains , I meant that the mountains will typically do better than down in ATL in this kind of situation due to them having a better opportunity to wring out whatever moisture is there. I'm trying to prevent hopes from being raised too much in ATL to better reflect what I feel is reality. Otherwise, there's liable to be lots of whining. I'm looking this as a total surprise if it ends up being something in ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Roberts thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good catch, Nelson! Here's his lengthier FB post: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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