BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 00z CMC don't look bad for Mtn's and Foothills of NC hour 64. I guess I'm about the only one holding on to a little hope for a front end thump? It's dead in here tonight.... I know it's not much but may be a little! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 00z CMC don't look bad for Mtn's and Foothills of NC hour 64 This is such a strange system, can't say I've ever seen a look like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is such a strange system, can't say I've ever seen a look like that. I don't think I have either, probably want have nothing but clouds Saturday! Then warm up rain Sunday when front comes through! But yeah it is strange looking!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good catch, Frosty. Looks like the GGEM cools the mid-levels off just well enough with heavier rates. I have noticed that the NAM has done the same thing at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 00z CMC don't look bad for Mtn's and Foothills of NC hour 64. I guess I'm about the only one holding on to a little hope for a front end thump? It's dead in here tonight.... I know it's not much but may be a little! Everybody saw the 0z GFS fantasy 2ft storm, and forgot about this crackerjack non event! I still think us Western Carolinas folks see something frozen , before changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good catch, Frosty. Looks like the GGEM cools the mid-levels off just well enough with heavier rates. I have noticed that the NAM has done the same thing at times. Yeah I noticed this also. Here are two panels from the NAM that Amwx provides. You can see that precip gets going just enough to cool the mid levels and change over to snow. The warm nose looks decent on the NAM soundings though in Asheville, so not sure if we will changeover or not. 7am Saturday 10am Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Biggest change in the 6z nam and to some extent the hi-res nam is that it brings in precip much faster to the triad area (at least 6 hours earlier). As a result, it drops over 7 inches of snow before mixing. Let's see if the faster onset becomes a trend today with the other modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yeah I noticed this also. Here are two panels from the NAM that Amwx provides. You can see that precip gets going just enough to cool the mid levels and change over to snow. The warm nose looks decent on the NAM soundings though in Asheville, so not sure if we will changeover or not. 7am Saturday 10am Saturday I do think if moisture can make it into the area Saturday morning it will be all snow for almost everyone in WNC....I still question how much moisture can actually make it east of the mountains though. NAM certainly was a good trend this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow, 6z NAM says "i know something that you dont know" and tries to atone for its poor performance this week. Could be a dandy if its right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On further inspection, both the nam and the gfs brings in the significant precip 6-12 hours earlier on the 6z runs when compared to the 0z. Take a look at this link and scroll down to "Hourly Precip Accumulation Forecast" and you can clearly see the difference. You can also put in different locations at the right to check out your area. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Both 6z nam and GFS look good for western nc mountains and especially western va. Both have heavier precip coming over area with 850's precariously close to snow if not sleet for sure and then possibly a period of prolonged icing. Blacksburg mentions a "significant wintry mix event possible" even if it rains this would make me thrilled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Both 6z nam and GFS look good for western nc mountains and especially western va. Both have heavier precip coming over area with 850's precariously close to snow if not sleet for sure and then possibly a period of prolonged icing. Blacksburg mentions a "significant wintry mix event possible" even if it rains this would make me thrilled I think anyone north and west of AVL and your area particularly have the best chance. If I'm east of those spots I wouldn't get too excited. This to me has disappointment all over it. Hopefully it trends wetter. I think for you especially icing shouldn't be a big deal...should be a nice dump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is colder....says to get your skies ready for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 might be done for this one in North GA. Precip looks north on the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is colder....says to get your skies ready for WNC. Not bad for us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 RNK from earlier this morning..... .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 353 AM EST THURSDAY...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. WITHSNOWPACK REMAINING ON THE GROUND...ALBEDO WILL LIMIT SOLAR RADIATIONAND ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON RANGINGFROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOWER TO MID 20STOWARDS SOUTHSIDE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SNOWPACK CONTINUES TOINFLUENCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING BACKDOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTUREOVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINAMOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MILDER AIR WILL KEEP RIDGETOPS 10F TO15F WARMER THAN THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASEOVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHTSNOW FROM A LINE SOUTHWEST OF BLUEFIELD WV TO WEST JEFFERSON NC.SHORT WAVES MOVING WEST IN ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TOSPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THEOZARKS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTTHROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THIS LOWAPPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...WARMER AIR WILL TRANSITION SNOW TO AWINTRY MIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EVENTUALLY OVER TO ALLRAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS LOOK FAST WITH REMOVING SURFACE HIGHPRESSURE TURNED INSITU WEDGE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAYAFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL KEEP THE WEDGE INFLUENCE INTHE AREA WITH A WINTRY MIX INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND MAINLY NORTH OFHWY 460 THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND NORTH OF I64 UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.FORECAST LOCATIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULDSEE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 30F INTO THE AFTERNOON...THENABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. BLUEFIELD AND DANVILLE MAYBE IN THE 40SCOME SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.ONE OTHER CONCERN SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FOR AREASOUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE...PARTICULARLY THE BLUEFIELD-RICHLANDS AREA.MODELS ARE BRINGING A 70KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEYSATURDAY. IF CLOUDS ARE ALLOWED TO BREAK...STRONG WINDS COULD MIXDOWN CAUSING POWER OUTAGES IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERNVIRGINIA...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SNOW OR ICE ARE LEFT ON TREES ANDPOWERLINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Great for northwestern 1/3 of NC - basically North and West of RDU to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM simulated radar at hour 54: This would be something wintery for RDU. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM continues to impress for the weekend system. Snow map NW part of NC with 12-15". 2-4" down the foothills back to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This could be a sneaky little snow to Ice to rain event... NAM looks pretty darn good!! Hour 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This could be a sneaky little snow to Ice to rain event... NAM looks pretty darn good!! Hour 51 Have to wonder if it will creep back somewhat South given the low DP's/Temps in place. Could be a nowcast come tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM continues to impress for the weekend system. Snow map NW part of NC with 12-15". 2-4" down the foothills back to CLT. Yea kind of surprised. I like these trends. Would love for it to keep showing it wetter further east and south. Still concerned with QPF NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM simulated radar at hour 54: This would be something wintery for RDU. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model I guess it is something to watch. Wouldn't be much, but I had all but written this one off as just cold rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is colder....says to get your skies ready for WNC. Coincidentally I have plans to bring family/friends up to the high country this weekend for some skiing. We're supposed to be staying in Zionville, just inside the TN border. I'm concerned about ice and following these boards closely. Thanks for what you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yea wonder if the 12z gfs starts a southward trend. Right now its the only one not showing wintry precip for the upstate. The NAM and CMC wants to put down up to an Inch across this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think the NAM is giving me something like 11 inches. lol I certainly do not believe that, but I think 1 to 2 inches is very possible!!! Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 12m12 minutes ago Bigger issues potentially further west. I "may" get a map out later today if I have time. Another threat possible Monday night/Tuesday. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 12m12 minutes ago For Triangle, some minor, light freezing rain/sleet is possible saturday, but we should be above freezing by late Sat afternoon/evening. Tricky scenario with moisture moving into cold dome. Warm-up certain by late Sat night all over to rain for SUnday. How much precip sat? Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 13m13 minutes ago Friday night/sat event will be primarily focused on TN, KY, N Ga, NW SC, VA, western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I-20 North in GA should experience some wintery precip, the question is how much and what kind at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 winter storm watches may go up later today for wnc and western va. and winter weather advisories for the upstate and ne. ga.. we'll see. think the storm will produce more frozen precip than the thinking right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I got NAM'd. 9-12" and never a changeover on Saturday. Please be good to us, GFS! NAM just obliterated the mountains, foothills and northern piedmont areas of VA/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hi-Res NAM composite radar is super juicy for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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