sparklecity Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like 18z NAM backed off totals here (Upstate SC) from 12z - down to about an inch at 18z from 5 inches at 12z. It's showing more fzrn or ip now instead of snow. I've never had as much sleet from the last 2 winters as I've had in all of my previous years combined it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like 18z NAM backed off totals here (Upstate SC) from 12z - down to about an inch at 18z from 5 inches at 12z.Looks like Nam showing more of a mix to me probably more sleet and ZR just like this last one, But after a possibility of a inch or two of snow on front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 what do we have to do to get a nice 6-10 inch thumping, wow unbelievable. maybe things will trend better as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 what do we have to do to get a nice 6-10 inch thumping, wow unbelievable. maybe things will trend better as we get closer.things are trending worse, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 what do we have to do to get a nice 6-10 inch thumping, wow unbelievable. maybe things will trend better as we get closer.Well as hard as it is to get snow around here, I will just gladly take my 1-3" and call it a Thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 what do we have to do to get a nice 6-10 inch thumping, wow unbelievable. maybe things will trend better as we get closer. I was going to answer, "Move to Asheville." but then I realized that doesn't seem to work anymore. So... move to D.C.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I was going to answer, "Move to Asheville." but then I realized that doesn't seem to work anymore. So... move to D.C.? Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Take it with a grain of salt since its the end of its run but the 18Z RGEM is early and more south with the overrunning at 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 ^ hug it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18z GFS looks wonky to me with temps Saturday and early Sunday... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021818/gfs_T2m_seus_15.png After that frame nothing but a cold rain and then some nice WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Boone.boone is way below too. DC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18z GFS looks wonky to me with temps Saturday and early Sunday... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021818/gfs_T2m_seus_15.png After that frame nothing but a cold rain and then some nice WAA no its correct. We have record cold followed by flurries turning to rain followed by more intense cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hug the RGEM! That looks like a possibility! The thing about this storm is, we won't get above freezing by much on Friday after 60 hrs below freezing, so anything that starts , won't be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hug the RGEM! That looks like a possibility! The thing about this storm is, we won't get above freezing by much on Friday after 60 hrs below freezing, so anything that starts , won't be rain Exactly its going to be sleet or Snow to start, just like this last storm, But hopefully this one will be more snow before the Changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 no its correct. We have record cold followed by flurries turning to rain followed by more intense cold. Just that bubble of sub freezing in SC was odd to me... but of course severe cold then rain then more cold. It's hard to pull off, but we find a way in the southeast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Doesn't look like any issues at all for atl. All the snow and ice will be near the TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well, FFC did pull the trigger and issued a Winter Storm Watch from 18Z Friday to 18Z Saturday. Wow. Crazy early! But a very entertaining discussion if you have time to read it. Very entertaining, whoever wrote it had a funny way of putting it all down. Summed up: "OKAY SO YEAH THE 12Z DIDN'T COME IN SO WE ARE GONNA MAKE A WAG HERE. IT'S COLD ON FRIDAY. THERE MIGHT BE SOME WATER. THINGS MIGHT HAPPEN WHEN THE WATER MEETS THE COLD. YOU HAVE TO DRIVE HOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN WHATEVER RESULTS WHEN THE WATER MEETS THE COLD, SO YEAH THERE YOU GO. PEACE OUT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Very entertaining, whoever wrote it had a funny way of putting it all down. Summed up: "OKAY SO YEAH THE 12Z DIDN'T COME IN SO WE ARE GONNA MAKE A WAG HERE. IT'S COLD ON FRIDAY. THERE MIGHT BE SOME WATER. THINGS MIGHT HAPPEN WHEN THE WATER MEETS THE COLD. YOU HAVE TO DRIVE HOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN WHATEVER RESULTS WHEN THE WATER MEETS THE COLD, SO YEAH THERE YOU GO. PEACE OUT." Was this bring your son to work day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Was this bring your son to work day? No idea. However, I'd donate if they let that person write the disco every day. Cause all disco should make you smile. Here's the whole thing, the Long Term is the good part. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/text.php?pil=ATLAFDFFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 A little bit from JB this afternoon about this weekend. People are writing asking him whether what is being portrayed on models can happen, the warm 12-18 hour surge up the east coast within 48 hours after the coldest air mass since 1994 in some places east of the mountains ( if it hits 0 in NYC) has invaded. Yes it can. I've seen some rapid warm ups to from super cold air..... In fact I saw it happen in Dec 1983.. after that outbreak went through with it well below 0 all day in Providence it rained a few days later I saw it in Dec 1968... first time I had ever felt wind chills to -40... A storm started with snow in the teens and temps surged to 50 in coastal RI Of course there are other scenarios. The 94 outbreaks "warmup) had the greatest cold front ever with many places in eastern pa getting a foot of snow as the true warm front stayed south and it was so cold it just overran. He says it can certainly could happen and yes it might. He said he would wait though to see where this precip breaks out. It hit 50 at Hatteras 5 hours after it was 25 a could of nights ago but the cold air in the precip did not move Lets see how the model behaves when it encounters the cold air.. It will send a low up to the west but may find a new low along the coast and thermally induced reverse circulation will enhance frozen precip Remember the emperor of the north is expanding his kingdom west. It gives the forces that will overthrow him a chance to attack him, though vengeful creature that he is I suspect an attack on his home base this weekend, for however short, will be met with renewed fury next week, even as he conquers further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 JB with the metaphorical goods... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Blacksburg thinking I may see some snow... I was surprised to see this when I got home! FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY AFTERMIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COLD. NEARSTEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 20. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OFSNOW 30 PERCENT..SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND FREEZINGRAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONPOSSIBLE. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 ABOVE..SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADYTEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 JB with the metaphorical goods... Pvd is on the ocean, that might have something to do it being able warm more quickly in southern New England. Was thinking about that today vis a vis the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just when I was about to throw in the towel the r gem reels me back in! Maybe the short range models are picking up on something the globals are missing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just when I was about to throw in the towel the r gem reels me back in! Maybe the short range models are picking up on something the globals are missing Can you elaborate? I wish I was as optimistic as you. I personally think it will be nothing but a cold rain (been saying it for days) but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Can you elaborate? I wish I was as optimistic as you. I personally think it will be nothing but a cold rain (been saying it for days) but that's just me. whatever we get from the initial over running will be frozen for sure. Just a matter of getting the precip this Far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Can you elaborate? I wish I was as optimistic as you. I personally think it will be nothing but a cold rain (been saying it for days) but that's just me. You live in Greenville, SC. Betting on the odds of rain probably is a good call but getting upset about it is stupid. If you live for better odds move north, otherwise, enjoy the fact that we have a potential event to track in the SE. I for one think that with we may catch something for a brief period with the overrunning precip. Unfortunately we will watch the rain wash it away but by then I will be looking at Tuesday anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just when I was about to throw in the towel the r gem reels me back in! Maybe the short range models are picking up on something the globals are missingWhere did you get the RGEM that quick? My tropical tidbits hasn't even started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You live in Greenville, SC. Betting on the odds of rain probably is a good call but getting upset about it is stupid. If you live for better odds move north, otherwise, enjoy the fact that we have a potential event to track in the SE. I for one think that with we may catch something for a brief period with the overrunning precip. Unfortunately we will watch the rain wash it away but by then I will be looking at Tuesday anyway.He's our areas version of Widre! If we get any moisture in here before 10-12 o'clock or sooner, in the a m, it will be frozen, guaranteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 He's our areas version of Widre! If we get any moisture in here before 10-12 o'clock or sooner, in the a m, it will be frozen, guaranteedWhat if its somewhere in the middle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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