burrel2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What do they show for the upstate? 1 to 3 inches.. With the 3 inches being in the extreme western Upstate. The cutoff line for any accumulation looks to be around Spartanburg. There could be sleet mixing issues towards the end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 1 to 3 inches.. With the 3 inches being in the extreme western Upstate. The cutoff line for any accumulation looks to be around Spartanburg. There could be sleet mixing issues towards the end though. Well that sucks for the Rock Hill area smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It looks like about 80% of the GFS ensemble members are wetter than the operational for the Western upstate... which lines up better with the CMC. Let's hope the Euro comes on board today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 FFC throwing out the words "signifacant" and "winter storm" for Friday night for north Ga. They are usually very conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 FFC throwing out the words "signifacant" and "winter storm" for Friday night for north Ga. They are usually very conservative. Yep. WSB in house model. I think its the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It looks like about 80% of the GFS ensemble members are wetter than the operational for the Western upstate... which lines up better with the CMC. Let's hope the Euro comes on board today.mine are nother out yet can you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Debbie Downers up in here.... I'll take my .5-1" and smile after this season. Yes, I do expect a bit of front end snow quickly changing to sleet then ZR then RN. I'd be thrilled with 0.5-1". That's a nice amount for ATL at just about anytime. However, the last few GFS/Euro runs have shown just about no snow for most of the ATL area and the 12Z GFS has also no ZR at ATL though it does have some light ZR at MGE. Is it right? I don't know, but it isn't surprising. Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro is probably going to look closer to the CMC...at least I have a feeling of that. It's slight south with the QPF and colder than it's 00z OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well I take that back. Out to 72 it's lighter with QPF and warmer at 850's probably due to the lack of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well I take that back. Out to 72 it's lighter with QPF and warmer at 850's probably due to the lack of moisture.How's it looking up this way and for the nc mountains burg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro keeps getting drier and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hearing rumors of WINTER STORM WATCH for north GA for Friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Whats interesting is that the 12z gfs forms a low in GA as the front is passing. Members have been converging on this also. Could be something to watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Little Rock NWS - Looks like a GA winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Found this interesting!!! @WSI_Energy: This verification clearly shows the ECMWF model's "fall" from grace over the past year. Suspect an upgrade will come. http://t.co/GJdKX6p8wH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Found this interesting!!! @WSI_Energy: This verification clearly shows the ECMWF model's "fall" from grace over the past year. Suspect an upgrade will come. http://t.co/GJdKX6p8wH. been saying this. The 40 year old former Cy young winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 FFC should pull the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch this afternoon per there last AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Little Rock NWS - Looks like a GA winter storm. image_full2.gif image_full3.gif and Upstate SC!! Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 been saying this. The 40 year old former Cy young winner. Yep I've seen you mention it more than a few times!!! I'm on the road today. Did 12z show winter weather here Saturday or have they backed off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 FFC should pull the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch this afternoon per there last AFD.that's the kiss of death! Euro ensemble mean is good for 2-4 for north ga above I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yep I've seen you mention it more than a few times!!! I'm on the road today. Did 12z show winter weather here Saturday or have they backed off?it's backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 it's backed off. Appreciate it. But not what I wanted to hear! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 that's the kiss of death! Euro ensemble mean is good for 2-4 for north ga above I-20. Well, FFC did pull the trigger and issued a Winter Storm Watch from 18Z Friday to 18Z Saturday. Wow. Crazy early! But a very entertaining discussion if you have time to read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 FFC should pull the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch this afternoon per there last AFD. Doesn't include the ATL metro. It's for the northern counties. that's the kiss of death! Euro ensemble mean is good for 2-4 for north ga above I-20. Really? That seems like a lot considering the NAM and GFS are showing next to nothing anywhere near Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Doesn't include the ATL metro. It's for the northern counties. Really? That seems like a lot considering the NAM and GFS are showing next to nothing anywhere near Atlanta. As typical I'm included but it technically starts about 5 miles north of me. I found their reasoning sound in light of last January as their job is to raise awareness regardless of what weenies think. I'm just hoping for enough to white the ground a little more than today which wouldn't take much. My son really wants snow cream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well, FFC did pull the trigger and issued a Winter Storm Watch from 18Z Friday to 18Z Saturday. Wow. Crazy early! But a very entertaining discussion if you have time to read it. Entertaining and interesting, they're definitely using the ice storm in-situ damming experience as a factor and also erring on the side of caution. The last thing they need is an afternoon debacle on Friday. We'll see how it shakes out, there is still potential for another winter experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well, FFC did pull the trigger and issued a Winter Storm Watch from 18Z Friday to 18Z Saturday. Wow. Crazy early! But a very entertaining discussion if you have time to read it.it seems reasonable. GSP is thinking advisory for us which seems reasonable as well. As a weenie tho I am hoping the nam and cmc are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The NAM is interesting. Looks like it creates some pockets of sub-freezing 850s in areas of the foothills and NW Piedmont with better rates. We'll see if that happens or not. Sounds sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah I don't feel as good about it as I did last night! Hard to believe be down to 10 Friday night and might rain Saturday? OR might have a hard time getting precip in here till later Saturday or Saturday night. That just about would Def mean all rain. What's your thoughts as of now? I'm not very enthused at this point, but we'll see. Maybe we can sneak out a dusting to an inch before a changeover. Maybe a couple inches for you? At this point, I'd go with nothing, though. I am not an expert, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like 18z NAM backed off totals here (Upstate SC) from 12z - down to about an inch at 18z from 5 inches at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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