Winterhawk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 FFC cautiously optimistic for GA peeps. We know it's going to be cold, the question is will the moisture if any get here quick enough, still a crap shoot with the models. Last part of FFC's AFD.. "PER THE WINTER PRECIP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...TOOEARLY TO BE PUTTING SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS...BUT GUIDANCE IS BEINGCONSISTENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...STILLTOO EARLY TO TELL." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0Z Euro Control at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 FFC HWO .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AND FOR THISREASON THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTILNOON THURSDAY.THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM FRIDAY THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AREAS OF SNOW WILL BEGINACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY...BECOMING WIDESPREAD FRIDAY EVENINGTHEN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THENCHANGE TO RAIN BY NOON SATURDAY,. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OFSNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH THIS SYSTEM.FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TOFRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Madness continues. Really waiting to see how the cold is handled once it gets into place tonight in tomorrow morning. Will take a hell of a lot of effort to move it out. Could be just slow enough to provide a front end bump of the white stuff! 06Z GFS predicts 4 inches of snow for KHKY before the changeover. 06Z NAM has 8 inches of snow. I'll be content with either of those solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 06Z GFS predicts 4 inches of snow for KHKY before the changeover. 06Z NAM has 8 inches of snow. I'll be content with either of those solutions. 5" actually, don't sell yourself short, plus a glaze on top... 4.5" for SuperJames! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 5" actually, don't sell yourself short, plus a glaze on top... 4.5" for SuperJames! Trying to stay conservative here, Pack. Don't want to get overconfident. That leads to severe disappointment. Actually, I just used the meteogram output and guestimated. Thanks for the Cobb output. Let it snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 KAVL is sitting on a good thump also, as shown on the 06z NAM. I understand this is the 84NAM BTW 5" actually, don't sell yourself short, plus a glaze on top... 4.5" for SuperJames! Even GSP has around 1" at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 From GSP: ..SATURDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TODEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AREPOSSIBLE...STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A MIXOF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANGING TO ALLRAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I look at this setup and seems very close to what we just had Monday night. The big difference is there is much colder air in place this go round. We saw how hard it was for the system on Monday for the warm nose to punch through. When every model was calling for ZR we ended up with a sleet monster. I think this one mainly stays as snow for what liquid is there. The million dollar question is how much moisture can we get. NAM is juiciest right now and it always over amplifies QPF at that range. Yeah agreed. If that HP can trend just a tad stronger I think some could get a decent thump of snow on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nam is way more south at 12z out to 63 comparing the pac energy to the 6z run. Has it over southeast Nevada whereas it was out in the Rockies. Don't know if this will be bad and let it amplify more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nam is very wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That is one hell of a freakin wedge setting up on the 2m for a whole lot of NC and VA with the .25" line over a majority of said region that is gonna be some nasty ice although I didn't bother to look at soundings yikes! Edit: yea the heaviest precip has moved significantly north now encompassing my region as well as WV etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 My guess and just throwing it out there (I think the NAM is too wet) would be that from about GSP to Rock Hill it should stay cold enough at least for the onset for a good dusting to a little over an inch of snow. This is some cold air that is not just going to get pushed out of the way. NAM is probably starting to pick up on that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 My guess and just throwing it out there (I think the NAM is too wet) would be that from about GSP to Rock Hill it should stay cold enough at least for the onset for a good dusting to a little over an inch of snow. This is some cold air that is not just going to get pushed out of the way. NAM is probably starting to pick up on that now.This is what I was getting at the other night where I talked about the nam's superiority when I lived up north. With an airmass like this and the fact it may be in the single digits and teens prior, the nam will be the one to track, whether or not it's qpf production is correct, it's low level resolution on temps have always been stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is what I was getting at the other night where I talked about the nam's superiority when I lived up north. With an airmass like this and the fact it may be in the single digits and teens prior, the nam will be the one to track, whether or not it's qpf production is correct, it's low level resolution on temps have always been stout. Yea though as we saw from that last air mass even the NAM came in too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 IMO opinion, this is kind of like the trajectory of a clipper, and 99% of the time, clippers track N of what models are showing. Based on that and storm trends of the winter, I would think this trends N. there is already a sharp cutoff from like 6 inches to 0 in NGa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAM looked a little further north with the Precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 My guess and just throwing it out there (I think the NAM is too wet) would be that from about GSP to Rock Hill it should stay cold enough at least for the onset for a good dusting to a little over an inch of snow. This is some cold air that is not just going to get pushed out of the way. NAM is probably starting to pick up on that now. Looks like this run was 3-4 inches for us followed by ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm still expecting little, if any, wintry precip for most of the ATL area other than the far N burbs (models have little at best) but am monitoring model trends to see if they reverse. So, any accumulating snow is doubtful right now. It will likely be too dry until it is no longer cold enough for snow. There may be some ZR afterward. Anyone disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm still expecting little, if any, wintry precip for most of the ATL area other than the far N burbs (models have little at best) but am monitoring model trends to see if they reverse. So, any accumulating snow is doubtful right now. It will likely be too dry until it is no longer cold enough for snow. There may be some ZR afterward. Anyone disagree? I agree. This has been my concern for a while now and it seems like each run is drier and drier. I don't even expect the mountains to get very much. Maybe an inch or two but even that might only be along the tn/nc border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 12Z NAM snowfall map is a thing of beauty for WNC. And it never changes over to just plain rain inside of 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z GFS is colder but also a little weaker compared to the 6z. Out to 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 @75 a lot less QPF so everything is a little warmer than 6z...still has light snow for much of the area in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12Z GFS is still another run with no snow for ATL-AHN. That looks reasonable to me. Too dry at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gfs looks terrible. I'm sure the next rainstorm will trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Good thump of snow for I-40 west in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12Z GFS is still another run with no snow for ATL-AHN. That looks reasonable to me. Too dry at 500 mb. I'm with you, this looks more realistic WRT to QPF than the NAM did overall. Unless there is a drastic change this is going to be a good hit for the northern foothills and mountains of NC only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Debbie Downers up in here.... I'll take my .5-1" and smile after this season. Yes, I do expect a bit of front end snow quickly changing to sleet then ZR then RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 12z CMC buries The top 2 rows of counties in Northern GA. Franklin,NC looks to jackpot with close to a foot. Also, the 48hr RGEM looks to me like it's going setup the axix of precip farther south like the CMC/NAM have been showing. Edit: While much better for Northern Alabama/GA, this run is much worse for Central/Eastern NC, hardly any precip makes it over that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 12z CMC buries The top 2 rows of counties in Northern GA. Franklin,NC looks to jackpot with close to a foot. Also, the 48hr RGEM looks to me like it's going setup the axix of precip farther south like the CMC/NAM have been showing. What do they show for the upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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