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February 20th-21st Winter Storm OBS/Discussion


LithiaWx

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Yeah, the UKMET is south, too. You guys could definitely get a couple inches with some fortune. Looks like I might even have a shot at a flizzard (unlikely), which would be a miracle!

 

I am having a hard time seeing an area of low pressure that is forecast to be weakening as it heads northeast eroding the cold air as fast as the models are showing. If the northern Piedmont can get enough precipitation into the area early enough I don't see it happening until late tomorrow night rather than during the afternoon. Temperatures may stay below freezing well into the evening. 

 

I remember having a morning low in the single digits several years ago and having a brief period of sleet followed by a cold rain in the same evening, but I would think the system responsible for that would have been much stronger or strengthening as it passed to our west. Can't remember the details on that one, but do remember it was a dramatic warm up. There may be some surprises with this one especially for the northern foothills. I guess we will find out soon enough. 

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I am having a hard time seeing an area of low pressure that is forecast to be weakening as it heads northeast eroding the cold air as fast as the models are showing. If the northern Piedmont can get enough precipitation into the area early enough I don't see it happening until late tomorrow night rather than during the afternoon. Temperatures may stay below freezing well into the evening. 

 

I remember having a morning low in the single digits several years ago and having a brief period of sleet followed by a cold rain in the same evening, but I would think the system responsible for that would have been much stronger or strengthening as it passed to our west. Can't remember the details on that one, but do remember it was a dramatic warm up. There may be some surprises with this one especially for the northern foothills. I guess we will find out soon enough. 

Our problem will be getting precip to get started in the morning, IF it can I'm like you it will be tough to get above freezing for a long time. But if precip holds off till afternoon winter precip will be short lived.

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I problem will be getting precip to get started in the morning, IF it can I'm like you it will be tough to get above freezing for a long time. But if precip holds off till afternoon winter precip will be short lived.

 

I know that band to our south that went through northern Alabama, Georgia and SC fizzled out as it moved east, but the radar returns in Tennessee look pretty robust in comparison. Actually the radar has filled in quite nicely to our west over the past several hours and the returns are headed almost due east at this time. The HRRR has been showing these returns making into the border counties as well around sunrise or shortly thereafter. I think we, and you especially, will see several hours of at least light snow followed by a lull in the afternoon before the heavier rain associated with the front comes through overnight. By then of course temperatures will be above freezing. 

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I am having a hard time seeing an area of low pressure that is forecast to be weakening as it heads northeast eroding the cold air as fast as the models are showing. If the northern Piedmont can get enough precipitation into the area early enough I don't see it happening until late tomorrow night rather than during the afternoon. Temperatures may stay below freezing well into the evening. 

 

I remember having a morning low in the single digits several years ago and having a brief period of sleet followed by a cold rain in the same evening, but I would think the system responsible for that would have been much stronger or strengthening as it passed to our west. Can't remember the details on that one, but do remember it was a dramatic warm up. There may be some surprises with this one especially for the northern foothills. I guess we will find out soon enough. 

 

Agreed that temps aren't really the main problem.  Precip is, though, and it's going to be tough to get any down here.  Much better shot up your way and especially Big Frosty's way.

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I don't know, I feel better about than I did 6 hours ago. But super dry air can really screw you if you don't have a lot of moisture to work with.... Would love to see a couple inches before we warm up and rain.

 

Moisture will be the key. I know both of these are global models and are not the best to use in short term situations, but it is encouraging to see the 0z European and the GEM showing the 0 degree line at 850 along the NC/VA line as late as 7pm tomorrow. But without the moisture it means very little. Lol...

 

post-1075-0-19514400-1424499772_thumb.jp

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This storm definitely overperformed in my mind. There wasn't a single model run in the last 48 hours that had that good of a snow band. I've got to give FFC a lot of credit. They stuck to their guns and their forecast, while maybe a bit high, verified pretty well. They predicted that overrunning band even when it was looking unlikely per the models yesterday.

Oh ya, i could get used to the whole snow starts falling and nothing really melts thing. That seems to have been a common theme in the past few snow events we've had.

Good luck to NC and VA

Onto next week :)

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So whatever the Euro says is a guarantee? If I had all the snow the Euro has predicted for MBY this winter I would have 40 some inches so far!!! Now It very well could be right, Not saying it's not.... But when the others models come to the Euro's out come I will throw in the towel on this one!!!!

Well once again king euro and Nam failed again. All showed nothing and as of right now roads are white with a good dusting and still snowing. All hail to the rgem!!!!!

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There is a moderate band of precip getting ready to cross into Georgia from Alabama. Today may be our chance over here on the NE side of things. I'm currently sitting at 28.5 F and a DP of 17.2 F. The clouds parted for a little while and allowed my temp to take a small tumble before sunrise. Now the clouds are moving back in and locking out the sun. Yea. Let's see if we can see anything out of this. This line is passing through all of north Georgia over the next couple of hours and I wouldn't be surprised if most everyone in north GA see some snow or sleet out of this, especially on the NE side.

post-594-0-00883500-1424521876_thumb.png

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Well once again king euro,gfs and Nam failed again. All showed nothing and as of right now roads are white with a good dusting and still snowing. All hail to the rgem!!!!!

well there is nothing here. gonna start pulling for spring, tired of the ups, downs and disappointments. 99 percent downs

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