tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think the bigger question will be whether enough moisture gets into the Triad at the right time. If it comes in by daybreak Saturday with temps in the low 20's and lasts through the day, then this could be a significant/major storm. If the precip holds off until later day Saturday, I think we'll have nuisance wintry precip. So, the CAD will be tough to break if precip starts early, but not so much if it comes in later. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 gfs- Well the 70 degree line is touching NC if that tells you anything. precip also north on the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 From the way its looking on the 00z gfs, it looks to me like the 850s are a tad warm here in the upstate anyway. If we get the moisture in here, this could turn out to be a repeat of last night? Someone correct me if im wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Similar to the 18Z GFS, the 0Z GFS has very little wintry for the ATL-AHN corridor Fri-Sat.. I'm betting on it being very minor, if anything. Flow like that is usually dry in this corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 From the way its looking on the 00z gfs, it looks to me like the 850s are a tad warm here in the upstate anyway. If we get the moisture in here, this could turn out to be a repeat of last night? Someone correct me if im wrong Upstate gets something winter like of .02-.2", then the column is too warm for anything but rain. precip shield is in KY and VA also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Moisture looks too late and its too warm. Really need to see the moisture come in more like the NAM is showing. 00z GFS looks to be pretty much a swing and a miss for the triad. Maybe just some inconsequential wintry precip at onset. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Upstate gets something winter like of .02-.2", then the column is too warm for anything but rain. precip shield is in KY and VA also.I'll take it and love it! I don't care what the models say, if the precip gets here before noon, I will see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Upstate gets something winter like of .02-.2", then the column is too warm for anything but rain. precip shield is in KY and VA also.But with the air so dry, you got to think to that evaporational cooling would bring those temps down pretty good just like last night? The question is how long can the stay there till the WAA takes over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The first snow event from January 2000 was the top CIPS analog off the 12z NAM. Pretty good event for the NW portion of NC. Big Frosty special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 gfs- Well the 70 degree line is touching NC if that tells you anything. precip also north on the onset.MYR will be warm, is all that tells me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'll take it and love it! I don't care what the models say, if the precip gets here before noon, I will see snowYea Mack we really need to root for the precip to come in few hours quicker then we would be in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 But with the air so dry, you got to think to that evaporational cooling would bring those temps down? The question is how long can the stay there till the WAA takes over? The column should be pretty saturated with cold air damming in place. Some cooling might take place, but the warm air advection will act in greater magnitude and continue to warm the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 MYR will be warm, is all that tells me! your area also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The column should be pretty saturated with cold air damming in place. Some cooling might take place, but the warm air advection will act in greater magnitude and continue to warm the column. Will the precip die down when the sun sets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Will the precip die down when the sun sets? Possibly! I busted on that one, ill admit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Pretty good event for the NW portion of NC. Big Frosty special. the second one James, 1/21/2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We all should be glad we are getting a taste of spring! It's been too cold lately anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 A tight gradient between the have's and the have not's on the latest CMC run... Far northern Ga gets over an inch of liquid while atlanta stays bone dry. Franklin, NC jackpots with about a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 A tight gradient between the have's and the have not's on the latest CMC run... Far northern Ga gets over an inch of liquid while atlanta stays bone dry. Franklin, NC jackpots with about a foot of snow. Yeah, that's not looking good for NC foothills and Piedmont either... 00z GFS was ugly also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We all should be glad we are getting a taste of spring! It's been too cold lately anyway No thanks, I'll take some more winter please! I'd like to see a good snow before the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Any word on the 00z Euro for this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Any word on the 00z Euro for this weekend? Looks about the same as 12z to me. A bit of snow to start, then the precip moves north. Looks better for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks about the same as 12z to me. A bit of snow to start, then the precip moves north. Looks better for your area. Yeah I don't feel as good about it as I did last night! Hard to believe be down to 10 Friday night and might rain Saturday? OR might have a hard time getting precip in here till later Saturday or Saturday night. That just about would Def mean all rain. What's your thoughts as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well I'm probably too optimistic but....I think the CMC and NAM are closer to reality. The 6z NAM would be best case scenario...but it wouldn't surprise me at all if NC ended up with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well I'm probably too optimistic but....I think the CMC and NAM are closer to reality. The 6z NAM would be best case scenario...but it wouldn't surprise me at all if NC ended up with this. So we have the NAM, GFS, & CMC all with snow soundings around central and western NC for 9-12 hours. The Euro, NAVGEM, & Ukie(maybe a few inches in the NW corner of NC on Ukie) seem all too warm for much accumulation. It is encouraging that the NAM is showing a much weaker warm nose then what it was showing with the last storm. It had temps around 800mb @5c during the heaviest precip and the end result was a temp around 3c per soundings. For the storm this weekend, I have only seen a warm nose of 1c showing up on the NAM for WNC. On the GFS it looks like the warm nose reaches .4c, so neither of those would be enough to melt flakes completely. Euro is showing 850mb temps around -1c on Saturday morning but warms quickly as precip moves in but could have a few flakes to begin. A very interesting setup nonetheless and I hope the warm nose continues to trend weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro is showing 850mb temps around -1c on Saturday morning but warms quickly as precip moves in but could have a few flakes to begin. A very interesting setup nonetheless and I hope the warm nose continues to trend weaker. I look at this setup and seems very close to what we just had Monday night. The big difference is there is much colder air in place this go round. We saw how hard it was for the system on Monday for the warm nose to punch through. When every model was calling for ZR we ended up with a sleet monster. I think this one mainly stays as snow for what liquid is there. The million dollar question is how much moisture can we get. NAM is juiciest right now and it always over amplifies QPF at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I look at this setup and seems very close to what we just had Monday night. The big difference is there is much colder air in place this go round. We saw how hard it was for the system on Monday for the warm nose to punch through. When every model was calling for ZR we ended up with a sleet monster. I think this one mainly stays as snow for what liquid is there. The million dollar question is how much moisture can we get. NAM is juiciest right now and it always over amplifies QPF at that range. If I remember correctly, this is the time that the models will start ticking south if it's going to happen. Also the colder air hanging around might show a little more staying power. The GFS seems to be doing this from the 0z to 6z runs. Does anyone have an analysis of the GEFS or EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 JB said this morning, no way you going to get all this cold air out of the way fast enough, snow/Ice moving in Friday night/Saturday it will eventually change over two rain sometime Saturday... The main thing is if we can get the moisture in here fast enough Friday night and Saturday morning? Million dollar question! 06z NAM @ hour 84 looks good! But it is NAM @ 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 06Z GFS predicts 4 inches of snow for KHKY before the changeover. 06Z NAM has 8 inches of snow. I'll be content with either of those solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well I'm probably too optimistic but....I think the CMC and NAM are closer to reality. The 6z NAM would be best case scenario...but it wouldn't surprise me at all if NC ended up with this. According to that map, I get somewhere between zero and seven inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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