NEGa Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hey all, watching the radar too. Staff was very concerned about light precip and higher model reflectivity and 850mb RH moving in in spite of several models showing limited QPF. Less confidence about advisory/warning east and south of I-85. We'll see. SNELSON lol - i am glad i am not someone who has to put out a forecast for the public, especially in situations like this. yall must be pulling your hair out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow, looking at radar, the precip is much further south than forecasted. Interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow, looking at radar, the precip is much further south than forecasted. Interesting.. i would feel better to ne ga and the upstate if the moisture would seem to stop disappearing as it gets into central alabama i know our forecast is pretty much blah, but after monday there is always hope i guess lol. it is so cold and dry here at the moment i just hope we can get enough moisture to make it to the ground and not have a raging virga storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Got a strange Januarty 28th 2014ish feeling. Looked the same & felt the same as I commuted this AM in ATL,,,only it was 10 degrees colder than it was at the the same time last year... Gotta get the column saturated though...-4 DP & RH @ 35%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hey all, watching the radar too. Staff was very concerned about light precip and higher model reflectivity and 850mb RH moving in in spite of several models showing limited QPF. Less confidence about advisory/warning east and south of I-85. We'll see. SNELSON thanks for the update. i always like to read your AFDs. based on the timing of this chance, I totally agree with the warnings and watches and being on the side of caution because of all the issues that must be dealt with here, namely the inexperience with how to handle snow, (I'll leave it at that...) And like DahlonegaWx said on his site, the roads are going to be much colder at onset this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looking back at even the newest GFS run (6Z), cloudiness is way ahead of progged in MS/AL/GA. That also tells me that the model consensus is way off and we'll need to look at the radars very carefully today. Yep. Poor FFC can't win. People really want them to be aggressive with their notifications, because large metro populations in the under-equipped South. However, if they are even *slightly* off with the WWA precip type or (especially) borders, people are howling because "WHY ISN'T MY COUNTY UNDER THE WARNING, THIS IS HAPPENING WAAAA". Heh. I will say this: they warned this days ago and they've stuck to it even while people were questioning their sanity. And now radar returns are south of what any of the models prognosticated. So if FFC turns out to have been correct about frozen precip as far south as they have warned later today, people will be interested to know how they did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well they downgraded me to a WWA which I'm not surprised at! up to 1 inch of snow. I figure they don't want to drop it all at once just in case models bring it back a little? Then they can always upgrade if need be.. JMO Once again, and not that it really matters here...but a WS.A to a WW.Y is not a downgrade. A WS.W to WW.Y, however, is a downgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hey all, watching the radar too. Staff was very concerned about light precip and higher model reflectivity and 850mb RH moving in in spite of several models showing limited QPF. Less confidence about advisory/warning east and south of I-85. We'll see. SNELSON Thanks for posting Steve! As someone said above I don't envy you one bit. The RAP simulated radar and the radar look similar to me in nature, however I don't think anyone expected a lot of that moisture to reach the ground. I think most expected a lot of evaporation... Will be interesting to see how this one unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Once again, and not that it really matters here...but a WS.A to a WW.Y is not a downgrade. A WS.W to WW.Y, however, is a downgrade. what is a WW.Y ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Once again, and not that it really matters here...but a WS.A to a WW.Y is not a downgrade. A WS.W to WW.Y, however, is a downgrade. Yes you're right, I should have worded it different (my bad) I went from a watch to an advisory... The reason I said downgraded was last night they had me getting 4-6 inches possible this morning 1 inch possible.... But I understand what you're saying..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yes you're right, I should have worded it different (my bad) I went from a watch to an advisory... The reason I said downgraded was last night they had me getting 4-6 inches possible this morning 1 inch possible.... But I understand what you're saying..... The Euro and NAM both told you to expect the shaft, yet you seem surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro and NAM both told you to expect the shaft, yet you seem surprised. Now why wouldn't I seem surprised??? They put me under a WINTER STORM WATCH for 4-6 of snow and ICE on top yesterday evening.. Now you going to tell me you wouldn't be surprised if that was your forecast and 6 hours later the models that were showing it dried up??? Come on man you know better than to act like that... I guess they surprised RNK and a lot of other Mets around here too!!! I hope you enjoy your dusting or frizzle!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Is any of the precip making it to the ground in Georgia/Alabama/miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Is any of the precip making it to the ground in Georgia/Alabama/miss? Sumter County Alabama... wherever that is... is reporting ice on the roads there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 lol - i am glad i am not someone who has to put out a forecast for the public, especially in situations like this. yall must be pulling your hair out. Definitely takes the fun out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sumter County Alabama... wherever that is... is reporting ice on the roads there. County just east of Meridan, MS. I think @spann is passing those reports on. 1040a Sumter County “@JessicaMeigs: @spann Also be advised that it appears 20/59 around mile markers 3-4 is shut down due to another wreck.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sumter County Alabama... wherever that is... is reporting ice on the roads there. that's right on the MS border, near Meridian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Multiple reports of ice and sleet in Ms and AL. New WWA going up in central AL if it hasn't already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 A REGIONAL CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...CWD...WILL BE DECLARED AT 1800ZFRI FEB 20 2015 AND EXTEND THROUGH 0000Z MON FEB 23 2015...DUE TOA DEVELOPING WINTER STORM. THE FOLLOWING NWS REGIONS ARE IMPACTEDBY THIS CWD...EASTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN. NCEP/NWSTG AND THE NCFARE ALSO PARTICIPATING IN THIS CWD TO ENSURE A RELIABLE FLOW OFWEATHER DATA. ALL SCHEDULED SOFTWARE/HARDWARE/NETWORK CHANGES FORTHE IMPACTED OFFICES WILL BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE CWD HAS ENDED.ANY EMERGENCY CHANGES WILL BE EVALUATED AND APPROVED BY THELOCAL/REGIONAL MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. NWS OFFICES SHOULD CONTACTTHEIR REGIONAL OFFICES FOR FURTHER QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS CWD.OREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I realize it's just virga, but there are some echoes beginning to show up on FFC's radar......hopefully we can get some moistening up and get the overrunning started a little early over here. I suppose it's possible. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Radar still pretty weak but as the folks in MS/AL can attest doesn't take much to cause serious road issues, especially with temps as low as they've been. Wait and see for now, still not expecting much but would like a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Radar still pretty weak but as the folks in MS/AL can attest doesn't take much to cause serious road issues, especially with temps as low as they've been. Wait and see for now, still not expecting much but would like a surprise. I'm wondering how long it will take to saturate the very dry airmass here. Where I am the temp is 22 with a dewpoint of -6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Reports of snow/sleet coming out of Huntsville, AL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That would make sense, they're about to be sitting under a decent return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just spoke with one of my carriers based out of OKOLONA MS and they are reporting moderate zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 radar in NW GA is filling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 radar in NW GA is filling in Yeah, snow might break out shortly t my location if that stuff is hitting the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah, snow might break out shortly t my location if that stuff is hitting the ground. last observation in rome had ceilings down to 6500 feet. i'm a bit surprised to see returns actually increasing with so much dry air in place at the surface and aloft temps are going to be a bit colder today than forecast. no way gainesville gets to 34, currently it's 27. 31 here..was supposed to get to 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 PDK is about 3-4 degrees behind the hourly forecast, as well. Could be a problem if the north burbs top out around 31 instead of the forecast 34... Radar has the precip approaching Woodstock/Ball Ground now...do we have anyone up there (or even Rome or Dalton) to give ground truth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think it's about to start snowing imby.... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.