Tullioz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The best I can do is my "Point Forecast" box that I have over my road on NWS website, which says 1214'. I'm right on the Patrick Co/Henry Co border, highest elevation in Henry Co. I live in a community called Sanville. Bassett itself is about 900'. Some of the highest elevations of Henry County are found in the Southwest corner. Most of the Ridgeway and Horsepasture districts are above 1,000ft with a few higher points above 1,200. Chestnut Knob in Ridgeway is the highest point which is a little over 1,520ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA1111 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING......ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER LIKELY BEGINNINGFRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND....NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY COMBINED WITH BITTERLYCOLD TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 15 BELOW ZERO WESTERN MOUNTAINS TOAROUND ZERO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THEWEEKEND WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECASTAREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND EVENFREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTOSUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE APPEARLIKELY FOR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA1111 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHTTHROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION. SLEET ACCUMULATION ALSO LIKELY.* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS.* HAZARD TYPES...VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.* TIMING...LOW WIND CHILLS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WINTRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...VERY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF LEFT EXPOSED TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW AND ICE COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES BY LATER SATURDAY.* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK.* TEMPERATURES...5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. After seeing the 0z models, I'm puzzled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1111 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 ...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... ...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND... .NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY COMBINED WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 15 BELOW ZERO WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE APPEAR LIKELY FOR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE... ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA 1111 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION. SLEET ACCUMULATION ALSO LIKELY. * LOCATIONS...PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. * HAZARD TYPES...VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING...LOW WIND CHILLS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WINTRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...VERY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF LEFT EXPOSED TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW AND ICE COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES BY LATER SATURDAY. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. * TEMPERATURES...5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. After seeing the 0z models, I'm puzzled? Me to, I seen the post on FB somewhere around 11:00 I ask them was they still thinking that way after the big shift in the NAM and RGEM? They haven't responded back to me yet... They usually respond back to me on FB so IDK maybe they not buying the 00z NAM and RGEM? But I'm like you puzzled!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 FFC is smoking something, that WWA for metro ATL is very marginal at best, only the NAM even barely breaks out precip that far south while it is cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's funny watching the forum members on here including myself get confused and puzzled over what the NWS is saying. They obviously see something we don't. Pass the popcorn this way. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 FFC is smoking something, that WWA for metro ATL is very marginal at best, only the NAM even barely breaks out precip that far south while it is cold enough. I was wondering when you were going to chime in lol. This will be interesting to follow tomorrow no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro is way, way, way north. Even SW VA looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's funny watching the forum members on here including myself get confused and puzzled over what the NWS is saying. They obviously see something we don't. Pass the popcorn this way. Thanks. I bet they see what we did tonight, in the morning with an updated forecast!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro is way, way, way north. Even SW VA looks awful. Thanks SJ that should put the final nail in the coffin!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I was wondering when you were going to chime in lol. This will be interesting to follow tomorrow no doubt. Still out of the country- but some folks traveling back Saturday were wondering if their flight would be affected. I told than unless the airlines freak out and cancel flights they should be OK. I am not back until Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well... Kind of scratching my head this morning as winter storm warning products are issued for the area. 4-7 inches and .2 of ice accretion? I've seen the nam and it looks as ugly as no tomorrow, however the GFS looks a tad better from 0z. 850s are precariously close almost too close for comfort, but it's almost short range model time so cheers to a better looking forecast because Blacksburg have pushed there poker chips all in on a highly sketchy setup for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well... Kind of scratching my head this morning as winter storm warning products are issued for the area. 4-7 inches and .2 of ice accretion? I've seen the nam and it looks as ugly as no tomorrow, however the GFS looks a tad better from 0z. 850s are precariously close almost too close for comfort, but it's almost short range model time so cheers to a better looking forecast because Blacksburg have pushed there poker chips all in on a highly sketchy setup for sure. Well they downgraded me to a WWA which I'm not surprised at! up to 1 inch of snow. I figure they don't want to drop it all at once just in case models bring it back a little? Then they can always upgrade if need be.. JMO TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 19. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN...SNOW LIKELY WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 ABOVE IN THE MORNING. .SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. TEMPERATURE RISING TO AROUND 40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS... BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 can you believe models are coming in dryer now, what a winter. why can't we get a ramped up winter storm that has some bite to it? these things start out looking good then always trend worse. why can't we ever for once trend better, not asking much just for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Here's the GSP snowfall forecast. Pretty paltry, and yet it is more robust than any model that I can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And, here's the recent thoughts from GSP: WHICH BRINGS US TO TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES ARECENT TREND OF LIMITING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ANY MEASURABLEPRECIP. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH ACTIVATING A WARMFRONTAL-LIKE FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST...AND IN FACT RADARSTO THE WEST ARE ALREADY PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL RETURNS. THE MODELSARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SCRAPING THAT WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ALONGTHE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MTNS TONIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FORSIGNIFICANT PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. WILL BACK OFF A BIT MORE ON THEPRECIP CHANCES E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND S OF I-40 IN RESPONSE...ANDWILL ALSO BACK OFF WITH THE POP ACROSS THE MTNS EARLY SATURDAYMORNING...OWING TO UNCERTAINTY SEEN IN THE MODEL TREND. THE DOWNWARDADJUSTMENT TO QPF LEAVES US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVELEVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE MTNS. AM INCLINED TOISSUE AN ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF ONSET.PRECIP TYPES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A CLASSIC TRANSITION OF SNOW-SLEET-FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARMER AIR INVADES FROM THE SW THRUDAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER THE MTNS. THIS STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TOREACH WARNING CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF THE MTNS...BUT CONFIDENCE INQPF IS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Dr. No, King Euro rule the roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Interesting. Check this change for Jackson, MS. It clearly is further south than models anticipated and that obviously COULD have further south vs expected implications later today. Here was the 4:23 AM CST fcast:MSZ048-210315- HINDS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON 423 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 TODAY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. Now, here's the 6:42 AM CDT update as there's currently ZR there: MSZ048-210330- HINDS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON 642 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 ..FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING REST OF TODAY CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leedev Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 King euro has been terrible this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just watch the radar, it'll clue you in better than model guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just watch the radar, it'll clue you in better than model guidance Just took a look and there are plenty of echoes in Mississippi and central Alabama moving due east. Looks like some returns coming SE from up in Tennessee as well. Guess we'll have to see it play out. Good news is we already have a pretty thick cloud deck this morning, so won't have a chance to really get the sun out and warm up. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 OK, now look what has happened in the northern portion of south AL, where they had earlier not forecastedany precip today! Earlier fcast was this: MSZ067-210030- WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESBORO 317 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 TODAY PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. And then this comes: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 741 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 UPDATE WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. RADAR SHOWS PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION NOTED UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER BUTLER COUNTY...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ARE IN THE 20S. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SLICK SPOTS ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING...AND BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ALSO UPDATED POPS...WEATHER AND SKY COVER IN GRIDS. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY ISSUED. 12/DS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Radar trends further west are definitely interesting. Still early in the evolution of this system, perhaps more surprises are in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looking back at even the newest GFS run (6Z), cloudiness is way ahead of progged in MS/AL/GA. That also tells me that the model consensus is way off and we'll need to look at the radars very carefully today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Reports of precip in West Jefferson Co according to James Spann...says things are unfolding "a little quicker and further south" than expected. Oh Brother... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Should we keep obs in this thread or should we make a new one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Should we keep obs in this thread or should we make a new one? I'd keep it here for now. I do think this one maybe should now be pinned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looking back at even the newest GFS run (6Z), cloudiness is way ahead of progged in MS/AL/GA. That also tells me that the model consensus is way off and we'll need to look at the radars very carefully today. How many busted forecasts are there going to be just this week? This is getting to a point to where it is beyond ridiculous with these models. The folks in the jackson miss. area did not have a clue there was going to be ice on some of the roads on there way to work this morning. We can hit a target the size of a dime from thousands a miles a way with precision with a 2 ton missle but, our technology with weather forecasts is having a hard time in 24 hours of forecasting getting it right and seems to be getting even worse?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Interesting. Check this change for Jackson, MS. It clearly is further south than models anticipated and that obviously COULD have further south vs expected implications later today. Here was the 4:23 AM CST fcast:MSZ048-210315- HINDS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON 423 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 TODAY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. Now, here's the 6:42 AM CDT update as there's currently ZR there: MSZ048-210330- HINDS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON 642 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 ..FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING REST OF TODAY CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. yep saw that, sure wish the gulf would open up. must be closed tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hey all, watching the radar too. Staff was very concerned about light precip and higher model reflectivity and 850mb RH moving in in spite of several models showing limited QPF. Less confidence about advisory/warning east and south of I-85. We'll see. SNELSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Freezing Rain Advisory issued for counties south and west of Montgomery. It's definitely a nowcast situation. Although it's light and likely not reaching the ground in some places, I was surprised to see just how far south the precip was on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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