BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 you got that in one storm? yes, Feb last year, had 11 inches in about 4 hours that morning. after snowing all night. biggest one I'll ever see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CMC has been consistent last couple days showing snow here Saturday. Interested in seeing it. Before I call complete fail.... After all it is the NAM. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 yes, Feb last year, had 11 inches in about 4 hours that morning. after snowing all night. biggest one I'll ever see....man, we only got 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CMC has been consistent last couple days showing snow here Saturday. Interested in seeing it. Before I call complete fail.... After all it is the NAM. lolwhatever can go wrong this winter will. I would gladly take 11-12 over this cold rainy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 man, we only got 12. We have only seen 12 inches twice in the past 20 years.. quite a few 8 inch storms but that's it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 whatever can go wrong this winter will. I would gladly take 11-12 over this cold rainy crap. if we don't get anything in the next week imby, the end result will be the same as 11-12. Just a few flurries. At least 11-12 was enjoyable and we weren't teased all winter, I would def take a winter like 11-12 over this one any day. Possibly the most miserable winter I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 whatever can go wrong this winter will. I would gladly take 11-12 over this cold rainy crap. Just like all winter rain in between cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Man, y'all mean we are not getting a foot from some weird warm front / clipper hybrid type crap, so now it's 2011/2012 all over again!!?? Y'all are hilarious ! I guess if we don't score Sat, then winter is over, there is nothing but sunny and 60 from Sunday on!? Lolzzzz I'm looking for flurries Saturday and I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 yes, Feb last year, had 11 inches in about 4 hours that morning. after snowing all night. biggest one I'll ever see.... That was the 16"er that tried to rip the gutters off my house up in stuart. I had a damn glacier coming off my metal roof, snow bars be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS: NEXT NAM: NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That was the 16"er that tried to rip the gutters off my house up in stuart. I had a damn glacier coming off my metal roof, snow bars be damned. You have a place in Stuart? I'm about 18 minutes away from that cozy little town. Back on topic, I don't think we can throw this out because of 1 run of the NAM. Let's see what the RGEM has to say. As far as short range modeling, it's had the hot hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 You have a place in Stuart? I'm about 18 minutes away from that cozy little town. Back on topic, I don't think we can throw this out because of 1 run of the NAM. Let's see what the RGEM has to say. As far as short range modeling, it's had the hot hand. Looks the RGEM is a no go. So far batting 0.00 on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well GFS wasn't AS BAD as the nam for sure still gets up here with some decent precip when 850s and 2m are right on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep...might be time to put this one to bed after 12z tomorrow. What a bad look by NWS Blacksburg if they have to cancel those Winter Storm Watches in their entire southern half. They were way too bullish on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep...might be time to put this one to bed after 12z tomorrow. What a bad look by NWS Blacksburg if they have to cancel those Winter Storm Watches in their entire southern half. They were way too bullish on this one. Yep CMC folded also, wow what a turn around in just a few hours... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep CMC folded also, wow what a turn around in just a few hours... lol New rule for this winter. Dont trust ANY model outside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The NAM and GFS look awful. What a turn of events. I'm out. I should've never had faith in this funky setup, but I can't help myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well GFS wasn't AS BAD as the nam for sure still gets up here with some decent precip when 850s and 2m are right on the fence. No room left for any more of a shift to the north though. Huge changes this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 New rule for this winter. Dont trust ANY model outside 48 hours. It had been showing snow here for Saturday for several runs. then POOF gone!!! Got to love this hobby..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 You have a place in Stuart? I'm about 18 minutes away from that cozy little town. Back on topic, I don't think we can throw this out because of 1 run of the NAM. Let's see what the RGEM has to say. As far as short range modeling, it's had the hot hand. Yep. I lean on your posts to tell me what the heck goes on up there. Whats the elevation at bassett? My house is 1400' up on a hill. Bring on the doc. These model runs are maddening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lots of Winter Storm Watches/Warnings primed to bust horribly right now in N GA and the NC mountains/foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I just told DT that he could add CMC to his shift with the NAM, He said not really? Am I missing something? didn't it shift way north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I just told DT that he could add CMC to his shift with the NAM, He said not really? Am I missing something? didn't it shift way north? Yes, though your area still gets accumulating snowfall with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yes, though your are still gets accumulating snowfall with the GGEM. I must be blind, I didn't see maybe at best a flurry. What site are you looking at? DT said he wasn't changing his forecast over the NAM, but if other models shifted he would have to change, that's when I told him the CMC shifted way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I must be blind, I didn't see maybe at best a flurry. What site are you looking at? The RGEM shows nothing for you. The GGEM does, however. Maybe an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The RGEM shows nothing for you. The GGEM does, however. Maybe an inch or two. Ok, yes rgem is what I was looking at.. Maybe the stupid models will come back next run? lol I'm wishcasting now!!! MariettaWx is going to be right, us NC guys were dreaming!! At least it's nice out tonight.... currently 3.3 with DP -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep CMC folded also, wow what a turn around in just a few hours... lol Now we're back on track! Now just get the rain outta here on Sunday. It's my only day off and I want to hit golf balls off the thawing snowpack. The NAM and GFS look awful. What a turn of events. I'm out. I should've never had faith in this funky setup, but I can't help myself. It was the weirdest setup I can remember seeing lol. It was worth a shot! 3-6" twice in one week would've been amazing for Fab Feb. On to Monday? Yep. I lean on your posts to tell me what the heck goes on up there. Whats the elevation at bassett? My house is 1400' up on a hill. Bring on the doc. These model runs are maddening! The best I can do is my "Point Forecast" box that I have over my road on NWS website, which says 1214'. I'm right on the Patrick Co/Henry Co border, highest elevation in Henry Co. I live in a community called Sanville. Bassett itself is about 900'. Yep, if the EURO jumps north, I'm out. Lots of Winter Storm Watches/Warnings primed to bust horribly right now in N GA and the NC mountains/foothills. I couldn't believe they issued a Watch here and threw 3-5" in my point forecast. I was thinking 1-3 front end at best with that wonky setup. I just told DT that he could add CMC to his shift with the NAM, He said not really? Am I missing something? didn't it shift way north? RGEM made a small jump north. CMC gives you an I an inch or two at best. Nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 FFC update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA1051 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015.UPDATE...HI RES MODELS STILL SHOW DISCREPANCIES ON EXTENT OF PRECIP ONSETACROSS NORTH GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY. LOCAL WRF HAS HAD SOME RUN TORUN CONSISTENCY WITH POSSIBLE BAND OF SNOW COMING INTO WESTERNPORTIONS OF AREA BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS IS THE BULLISH OUTLIERAND MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIP ACROSS FAR NORTH THEN BESTCHANCE FOR ADVISORY AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERING HOWMANY CHANGES TO TRENDS MAY STILL EXIST BETWEEN NOW AND LATETOMORROW...AND ALSO HOW MODELS DO NOT DO WELL WITH ISENTROPICLIFT/LOW LEVEL SATURATION RATES...HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FORCURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE NORTHERN TIER AND ADVISORYFARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING THE METRO. STILL LEAST CONFIDENT IN THESOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF NORTH GA...AND MOST CONFIDENT INMEASURABLE PRECIP FOR FAR NW GA. TEMPS TRENDING EVEN COOLER FORTHE FAR NE MOUNTAINS SO HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT MINS ACCORDINGLYAND RESULTANT WIND CHILLS STILL SUPPORTING CURRENT WIND CHILLWARNING PRODUCT THRU 7 AM. NOTICED RH VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL GAFRIDAY AFTERNOON GETTING INTO 20-25 PERCENT RANGE AND FUELS DIDDRY OUT SO MAY REACH FIRE DANGER CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO ASSESSWITH FUTURE UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's a good thing I never had hope for this one IMBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skbl17 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well, bust potential or not, the WWA was enough to force one school district in metro Atlanta (Fulton County Schools) to close tomorrow, and there may be more on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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