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February 20th-21st Winter Storm OBS/Discussion


LithiaWx

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whatever can go wrong this winter will. I would gladly take 11-12 over this cold rainy crap.

if we don't get anything in the next week imby, the end result will be the same as 11-12. Just a few flurries. At least 11-12 was enjoyable and we weren't teased all winter, I would def take a winter like 11-12 over this one any day. Possibly the most miserable winter I can recall.
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Man, y'all mean we are not getting a foot from some weird warm front / clipper hybrid type crap, so now it's 2011/2012 all over again!!?? Y'all are hilarious ! I guess if we don't score Sat, then winter is over, there is nothing but sunny and 60 from Sunday on!? Lolzzzz

I'm looking for flurries Saturday and I'm good

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That was the 16"er that tried to rip the gutters off my house up in stuart. I had a damn glacier coming off my metal roof, snow bars be damned.

 

You have a place in Stuart? I'm about 18 minutes away from that cozy little town.

 

Back on topic, I don't think we can throw this out because of 1 run of the NAM. Let's see what the RGEM has to say. As far as short range modeling, it's had the hot hand.

 

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You have a place in Stuart? I'm about 18 minutes away from that cozy little town.

 

Back on topic, I don't think we can throw this out because of 1 run of the NAM. Let's see what the RGEM has to say. As far as short range modeling, it's had the hot hand.

 

Looks the RGEM is a no go.  So far batting 0.00 on this one.

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You have a place in Stuart? I'm about 18 minutes away from that cozy little town.

Back on topic, I don't think we can throw this out because of 1 run of the NAM. Let's see what the RGEM has to say. As far as short range modeling, it's had the hot hand.

Yep. I lean on your posts to tell me what the heck goes on up there.

Whats the elevation at bassett? My house is 1400' up on a hill.

Bring on the doc. These model runs are maddening!

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Yes, though your are still gets accumulating snowfall with the GGEM.

I must be blind, I didn't see maybe at best a flurry. What site are you looking at? DT said he wasn't changing his forecast over the NAM, but if other models shifted he would have to change, that's when I told him the CMC shifted way north.

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The RGEM shows nothing for you.  The GGEM does, however.  Maybe an inch or two.

 

 

Ok, yes rgem is what I was looking at..  Maybe the stupid models will come back next run? lol I'm wishcasting now!!!  MariettaWx  is going to be right, us NC guys were dreaming!!  At least it's nice out tonight.... currently 3.3 with DP -6

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Yep CMC folded also, wow what a turn around in just a few hours... lol

 

Now we're back on track! Now just get the rain outta here on Sunday. It's my only day off and I want to hit golf balls off the thawing snowpack. :P

 

The NAM and GFS look awful.  What a turn of events.  I'm out.  :axe:

 

I should've never had faith in this funky setup, but I can't help myself.

 

It was the weirdest setup I can remember seeing lol. It was worth a shot! 3-6" twice in one week would've been amazing for Fab Feb. On to Monday?

 

Yep. I lean on your posts to tell me what the heck goes on up there.

Whats the elevation at bassett? My house is 1400' up on a hill.

Bring on the doc. These model runs are maddening!

 

The best I can do is my "Point Forecast" box that I have over my road on NWS website, which says 1214'. I'm right on the Patrick Co/Henry Co border, highest elevation in Henry Co. I live in a community called Sanville. Bassett itself is about 900'.

 

Yep, if the EURO jumps north, I'm out.

 

Lots of Winter Storm Watches/Warnings primed to bust horribly right now in N GA and the NC mountains/foothills.

 

I couldn't believe they issued a Watch here and threw 3-5" in my point forecast. I was thinking 1-3 front end at best with that wonky setup.

 

I just told DT that he could add CMC to his shift with the NAM, He said not really? Am I missing something? didn't it shift way north?

 

RGEM made a small jump north. CMC gives you an I an inch or two at best. Nothing major.

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FFC update 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1051 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

.UPDATE...
HI RES MODELS STILL SHOW DISCREPANCIES ON EXTENT OF PRECIP ONSET
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY. LOCAL WRF HAS HAD SOME RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH POSSIBLE BAND OF SNOW COMING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS IS THE BULLISH OUTLIER
AND MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIP ACROSS FAR NORTH THEN BEST
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERING HOW
MANY CHANGES TO TRENDS MAY STILL EXIST BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
TOMORROW...AND ALSO HOW MODELS DO NOT DO WELL WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT/LOW LEVEL SATURATION RATES
...HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR
CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE NORTHERN TIER AND ADVISORY
FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING THE METRO. STILL LEAST CONFIDENT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF NORTH GA...AND MOST CONFIDENT IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR FAR NW GA. TEMPS TRENDING EVEN COOLER FOR
THE FAR NE MOUNTAINS SO HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT MINS ACCORDINGLY
AND RESULTANT WIND CHILLS STILL SUPPORTING CURRENT WIND CHILL
WARNING PRODUCT THRU 7 AM. NOTICED RH VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON GETTING INTO 20-25 PERCENT RANGE AND FUELS DID
DRY OUT SO MAY REACH FIRE DANGER CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO ASSESS
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

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