NGA WINTER Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't know what to think of this storm. Models look bleh while my NWS forecast states "Heavy snow accumulation possible." 99% of the time it's the other way around. I completely agree. People are asking me what to expect. Models really don't show much but nws has continually said 1-3 for my area. Maybe a suprise is in store! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 He's really gotta quit making maps for south of VA, someone hack his computer and delete NC and TN. Lord help him lol lol Chattanooga in the map is 2 counties too far to the west where it is on the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sounds about right. Oh, yes. Yeah, 1" to 0.33". Toss. Hug whatever model shows us the goods. Actually, though, the SREFs are kind of weird. Mean QPF is pretty good. 0.25" QPF prior to 06z, which you would think would be SN/IP/ZR, realistically. I'm not sure what the model actually shows, though. Looks like it takes us above freezing mid-morning on Saturday, which seems ridiculous at this point. We'll see what the NAM shows. Good point. Same here for Hickory. If that cold air hangs around as long as GSP is calling for, or even longer as they mentioned, there's a good chance more of that precip falls as something frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Based off of the storm on Monday did the nam handle it the best? And is that the best model to use for this setup? It did best with regards to the warm nose above 850 mb, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It did best with regards to the warm nose above 850 mb, IMO. Which did the best with precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Which did the best with precip? Whichever model had the least. Maybe the Euro. Frankly, this is a lot different setup, though, so I am not sure if it's relevant. We mainly need to get the precip south enough to even worry about amounts. I'm not sure which model did the best with the track last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Whichever model had the least. Maybe the Euro. Frankly, this is a lot different setup, though, so I am not sure if it's relevant. We mainly need to get the precip south enough to even worry about amounts. I'm not sure which model did the best with the track last storm. Okay thanks for the information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It did best with regards to the warm nose above 850 mb, IMO. Snow came down on SREF but the mean qpf is 1.19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Snow came down on SREF but the mean qpf is 1.19 Well, only the first ~54 hours of that is relevant to the storm we are concerned with. The latter precip will be rain from the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I guess we could get something out of this. I just never liked the look at 5h...to me it just screams moisture shooting out too far north for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z nam looks much further north through hour 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam is coming in fairly dry. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam is snow showers for the mtns that's it. It really is remarkable how everything can head the wrong direction this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 well lets all remember who was right and who was wrong with the last storm. The GFS was right and the NAM was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep further north and drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Pains me to say this but looks more like the 12 z euro with the precip being more west and north. I kind of thought the 18z gfs went that way a little. It is 4 out right now and the door on my woodstove broke. really bad timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow!!! Ouch to the 0z Nam! Zilch. If the GFS verifies this crap of a run phew that's rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like the nam has at best a advisory event for most of western nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow, talk about a Debbie downer, This is or was a funky set up anyway..... Maybe we can score next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Do you guys feel the nam is being the nam right now aka too amped or is it legit? Literally the last 5 runs have been consistant until this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Do you guys feel the nam is being the nam right now aka too amped or is it legit? Literally the last 5 runs have been consistant until this one. That's a heck of a jump in one run? maybe it's a NAM thing! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z nam brings through a batch of precip,over north GA that would be a shot of sleet/snow/freezing rain around 6-9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlantaThrasher Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z nam brings through a batch of precip,over north GA that would be a shot of sleet/snow/freezing rain around 6-9pm. Nice to see something at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow!!! Ouch to the 0z Nam! Zilch. If the GFS verifies this crap of a run phew that's rough. Nothing like a 150-200 mile shift 36 hours out. It's odd, but sort of lines up with the older Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 All hail king Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nice to see something at least Well, might be Virga too. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well, might be Virga too. Lol there's nothing like a good virga storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlantaThrasher Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well, might be Virga too. Lol That's the spirit! lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like I'm going have to live on last years snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 February 12-13 2014 Snow.jpgLooks like I'm going have to live on last years snow!!you got that in one storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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