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February 20th-21st Winter Storm OBS/Discussion


LithiaWx

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and what about the counties in extreme eastern AL that border GA ? They are not under an advisory while counties right next to them in GA are. I do believe East AL is just as prone to CAD as West GA is. It makes it very confusing for those who live right along the border. Should we believe BMX or FFC ?

 

People, it's very simple.  in FFC's area they have one city alone that houses 6.5 million people, most of whom will be in Friday rush hour.  They are being better safe than sorry due to 2014.  That's it.  If this was Sunday morning potential, there would most likely be a WSWatch and a wait and see approach.  They can't afford that ATTM.  If it doesn't pan out, they drop the advisory/warning and no harm no foul.

 

- Buck

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People, it's very simple.  in FFC's area they have one city alone that houses 6.5 million people, most of whom will be in Friday rush hour.  They are being better safe than sorry due to 2014.  That's it.  If this was Sunday morning potential, there would most likely be a WSWatch and a wait and see approach.  They can't afford that ATTM.  If it doesn't pan out, they drop the advisory/warning and no harm no foul.

 

- Buck

 

Agreed. 

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Crap guys, and I am driving from winston to cincy / columbus on sunday. Not a good time for drunk weathermen and bad model disagreement. My business trip may turn into an impromptu snow chase if this keeps up. I am plowing right through DT's 10" bullseye!

Lol funny thing is I am driving to Frederick, Maryland Sunday. Will be there until Wednesday unless the big one hits next week then I may be stuck there longer!

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I don't see what's wrong with ffc. Their maps seem very reasonable. 1-3 in the north ga mtns and trace to 1" with some freezing rain in the north Atlanta metro. Their job is to give the public advanced warning, not wait until the event is unfolding like gsp will do sometimes.

their map a shows snow and ice in the south metro too.
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Didn't the storm on Monday verify about 100 miles further south than most models had it just 24 hours out?  If so, a lot can still happen with this one.  I could see a pseudo High locking in over the CAD regions leading to a prolonged period of sleet/freezing rain.

 

Also, if the NAM comes in the same as at 18z, I'd expect watches to go up in the Triad. 

 

TW

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Last storm he called for 6-10" and I got 1.5". He has me getting 4" on this storm so maybe a dusting?

 

Sounds about right.

 

He called me a moron and an idiot when I said that there was no way the Triad would get that much. Is he known to have a temper?!  

 

:yikes:

 

Oh, yes.

 

SREF plumes stink for gso.

 

Yeah, 1" to 0.33".  Toss.  Hug whatever model shows us the goods.

 

Actually, though, the SREFs are kind of weird.  Mean QPF is pretty good.  0.25" QPF prior to 06z, which you would think would be SN/IP/ZR, realistically.  I'm not sure what the model actually shows, though.  Looks like it takes us above freezing mid-morning on Saturday, which seems ridiculous at this point.

 

We'll see what the NAM shows.

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