SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 so who are you siding with at the present time? one of them will be right....one of them will probably not be right. BHM by a long shot, it will take a big shift south for FFC to get snow near or south of I20 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 The NWS bashing by "some" is tragic. Happens every year, lol. It's like some folks think they know better then actual scientists. If FFC thought it was in the public's best interest to setup the advisories/warnings this way I trust their judgment. Let's not forget this could shift south a touch and then the area in advisories are going to be a mess. I think wintery precip or not FFC has made the right decision due to how close this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 BHM by a long shot, it will take a big shift south for FFC to get snow near or south of I20 IMO so what the Heck is FFC thinking ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 17. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .SATURDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 9 ABOVE. .SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING... THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING... THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. IDK how much is Heavy?a Are you a member at weaterbell ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Are you a member at weaterbell ? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 so what the Heck is FFC thinking ? Wondering the same thing. They have to be banking on the precip being pushed further south than model guidance is showing. Since the WWA went up for my area, my pops for tomorrow night have gone down below 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wondering the same thing. They have to be banking on the precip being pushed further south than model guidance is showing. Since the WWA went up for my area, my pops for tomorrow night have gone down below 50% And rarely does WAA precip end up south of progged, 9 out of 10 times it's north, if anything I might worry about FZDZ in that area overnight Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gotta say current trends are definitely drier around ATL, not good for winter weather lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 And rarely does WAA precip end up south of progged, 9 out of 10 times it's north, if anything I might worry about FZDZ in that area overnight Friday Normally the exception is precip & mesoscale differences sliding from south to north, not the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The NWS bashing by "some" is tragic. Happens every year, lol. It's like some folks think they know better then actual scientists. If FFC thought it was in the public's best interest to setup the advisories/warnings this way I trust their judgment. Let's not forget this could shift south a touch and then the area in advisories are going to be a mess. I think wintery precip or not FFC has made the right decision due to how close this is. Agreed, better sorry for no winter weather than another fiasco like last year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gotta say current trends are definitely drier around ATL, not good for winter weather lovers. oh well, at least next week is looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gotta say current trends are definitely drier around ATL, not good for winter weather lovers. The 18Z RGEM from 21Z to 03Z tomorrow shows where Atlanta can cash in on a surprise, the classic overrunning hook or arc in the precip signature, should that ultimately develop more east they could get a period of something in there but odds are it would be 2-3 hours at best and light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckinbronco Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wondering the same thing. They have to be banking on the precip being pushed further south than model guidance is showing. Since the WWA went up for my area, my pops for tomorrow night have gone down below 50% I think there is a decent chance the counties in the warning area could see something significant. I think the counties in the advisory area is a CYA thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I really like the look of the 4k nam in far NW NC, heck even the 12km would still be a good hit. Things are looking good up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 And rarely does WAA precip end up south of progged, 9 out of 10 times it's north, if anything I might worry about FZDZ in that area overnight Friday I remember them mentioning in one of their discussions yesterday they felt it was a possibility the cold wedge would have more staying power than what was being modeled, but it seemed like they used the bust on Monday as a justification for this idea. As far as the WWA goes, a SWS would have made more sense to start off with and maybe upgrade to a WWA if conditions warrant, but I don't have a problem with the issuance of a WWA either. Also maybe it's something I'm missing, but most of the models I've seen at 12z (Euro, NAM, CMC, etc.) showed some frozen precip down into the Atlanta metro area (except the GFS). Nothing all that noteworthy, but they did show something frozen as far south as here Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like the RGEM is a little north from last run, FWIW. It still looks good for Boone, Mt. Airy, etc. The 12z and 18z JMA is a big hit, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yes Is JB thinking we will warm up on Sunday too ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I've watched 3 TV Mets, They say 1-3 inches in foothills 1 inch or less in piedmont. one says be up to 40 Saturday afternoon??? NWS says 4-6 inches in foothills then Ice on top! probably want go above freezing until after midnight Saturday night..... So it's hard to get a good feeling with so many different forecasts.. Biggest difference's I've ever seen in NWS and local TV Mets. For a system this close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is JB thinking we will warm up on Sunday too ? Yes ahead of the front... Just plain Rain Sunday for a lot of the east coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I remember them mentioning in one of their discussions yesterday they felt it was a possibility the cold wedge would have more staying power than what was being modeled, but it seemed like they used the bust on Monday as a justification for this idea. As far as the WWA goes, a SWS would have made more sense to start off with and maybe upgrade to a WWA if conditions warrant, but I don't have a problem with the issuance of a WWA either. Also maybe it's something I'm missing, but most of the models I've seen at 12z (Euro, NAM, CMC, etc.) showed some frozen precip down into the Atlanta metro area (except the GFS). Nothing all that noteworthy, but they did show something frozen as far south as here Saturday morning. the problem is a cold wedge doesnt do much good without moisture to go with it. gsp has also not followed ffc for ne ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I've watched 3 TV Mets, They say 1-3 inches in foothills 1 inch or less in piedmont. one says be up to 40 Saturday afternoon??? NWS says 4-6 inches in foothills then Ice on top! probably want go above freezing until after midnight Saturday night..... So it's hard to get a good feeling with so many different forecasts.. Biggest difference's I've ever seen in NWS and local TV Mets. For a system this close... I agree, weird system, weird model runs, just all around weird. It's like this thing has crept up on most because of all the attention on the last system and the record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I agree, weird system, weird model runs, just all around weird. It's like this thing has crept up on most because of all the attention on the last system and the record cold. Go from nearly nothing yesterday, to a WSW today, But still locals not thinking it amounts to much? not nearly as bullish as RNK. They just tweeted showing me in 4-6 inches... Which looking at their map has Boone in 4-6 maybe western part of county 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You can see that BHM didn't agree with FFC, they have no advisories paralleling theirs west of the border Birmingham and Atlanta are totally different animals. Atlanta is much more susceptible to CAD than BHM.. In fact BHM really does not experience CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yes ahead of the front... Just plain Rain Sunday for a lot of the east coast.... Yes ahead of the front... Just plain Rain Sunday for a lot of the east coast.... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If you want snow in the foothills, you should hug the CMC. CMC has a stout CAD holding, where GFS erodes it VERY fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Birmingham and Atlanta are totally different animals. Atlanta is much more susceptible to CAD than BHM.. In fact BHM really does not experience CAD. and what about the counties in extreme eastern AL that border GA ? They are not under an advisory while counties right next to them in GA are. I do believe East AL is just as prone to CAD as West GA is. It makes it very confusing for those who live right along the border. Should we believe BMX or FFC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Could be our biggest snow of the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 FFC Doubles Down!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I was watching a newscast in ATL earlier and they showed pretty much all rain in the advisory area. Talk about confusing the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4-6 inches for Statesville? Thirsty Thursday's at NWS offices? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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