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February 20th-21st Winter Storm OBS/Discussion


LithiaWx

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The NWS bashing by "some" is tragic.  Happens every year, lol.

 

It's like some folks think they know better then actual scientists.  If FFC thought it was in the public's best interest to setup the advisories/warnings this way I trust their judgment.  Let's not forget this could shift south a touch and then the area in advisories are going to be a mess. 

 

I think wintery precip or not FFC has made the right decision due to how close this is.

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FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE

OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 17. LIGHT

AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.SATURDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND SLEET IN THE

AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH

WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. WIND

CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 9 ABOVE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...

THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

80 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...

THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

 

 

IDK how much is Heavy?a

Are you a member at weaterbell ?

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Wondering the same thing. They have to be banking on the precip being pushed further south than model guidance is showing. Since the WWA went up for my area, my pops for tomorrow night have gone down below 50%

And rarely does WAA precip end up south of progged, 9 out of 10 times it's north, if anything I might worry about FZDZ in that area overnight Friday

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The NWS bashing by "some" is tragic. Happens every year, lol.

It's like some folks think they know better then actual scientists. If FFC thought it was in the public's best interest to setup the advisories/warnings this way I trust their judgment. Let's not forget this could shift south a touch and then the area in advisories are going to be a mess.

I think wintery precip or not FFC has made the right decision due to how close this is.

Agreed, better sorry for no winter weather than another fiasco like last year..

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Gotta say current trends are definitely drier around ATL, not good for winter weather lovers.

The 18Z RGEM from 21Z to 03Z tomorrow shows where Atlanta can cash in on a surprise, the classic overrunning hook or arc in the precip signature, should that ultimately develop more east they could get a period of something in there but odds are it would be 2-3 hours at best and light

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Wondering the same thing.  They have to be banking on the precip being pushed further south than model guidance is showing.  Since the WWA went up for my area, my pops for tomorrow night have gone down below 50%

 

I think there is a decent chance the counties in the warning area could see something significant.  I think the counties in the advisory area is a CYA thing.

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And rarely does WAA precip end up south of progged, 9 out of 10 times it's north, if anything I might worry about FZDZ in that area overnight Friday

 

I remember them mentioning in one of their discussions yesterday they felt it was a possibility the cold wedge would have more staying power than what was being modeled, but it seemed like they used the bust on Monday as a justification for this idea.

 

As far as the WWA goes, a SWS would have made more sense to start off with and maybe upgrade to a WWA if conditions warrant, but I don't have a problem with the issuance of a WWA either. Also maybe it's something I'm missing, but most of the models I've seen at 12z (Euro, NAM, CMC, etc.) showed some frozen precip down into the Atlanta metro area (except the GFS). Nothing all that noteworthy, but they did show something frozen as far south as here Saturday morning.

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I've watched 3 TV Mets, They say 1-3 inches in foothills 1 inch or less in piedmont. one says be up to 40 Saturday afternoon??? NWS says 4-6 inches in foothills then Ice on top! probably want go above freezing until after midnight Saturday night.....  So it's hard to get a good feeling with so many different forecasts.. Biggest difference's I've ever seen in NWS and local TV Mets. For a system this close...

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I remember them mentioning in one of their discussions yesterday they felt it was a possibility the cold wedge would have more staying power than what was being modeled, but it seemed like they used the bust on Monday as a justification for this idea.

 

As far as the WWA goes, a SWS would have made more sense to start off with and maybe upgrade to a WWA if conditions warrant, but I don't have a problem with the issuance of a WWA either. Also maybe it's something I'm missing, but most of the models I've seen at 12z (Euro, NAM, CMC, etc.) showed some frozen precip down into the Atlanta metro area (except the GFS). Nothing all that noteworthy, but they did show something frozen as far south as here Saturday morning.

the problem is a cold wedge doesnt do much good without moisture to go with it.  gsp has also not followed ffc for ne ga

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I've watched 3 TV Mets, They say 1-3 inches in foothills 1 inch or less in piedmont. one says be up to 40 Saturday afternoon??? NWS says 4-6 inches in foothills then Ice on top! probably want go above freezing until after midnight Saturday night..... So it's hard to get a good feeling with so many different forecasts.. Biggest difference's I've ever seen in NWS and local TV Mets. For a system this close...

I agree, weird system, weird model runs, just all around weird. It's like this thing has crept up on most because of all the attention on the last system and the record cold.

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I agree, weird system, weird model runs, just all around weird. It's like this thing has crept up on most because of all the attention on the last system and the record cold.

Go from nearly nothing yesterday, to a WSW today, But still locals not thinking it amounts to much? not nearly as bullish as RNK. They just tweeted showing me in 4-6 inches... Which looking at their map has Boone in 4-6 maybe western part of county 6-8

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Birmingham and Atlanta are totally different animals. Atlanta is much more susceptible to CAD than BHM..

In fact BHM really does not experience CAD.

and what about the counties in extreme eastern AL that border GA ? They are not under an advisory while counties right next to them in GA are. I do believe East AL is just as prone to CAD as West GA is. It makes it very confusing for those who live right along the border. Should we believe BMX or FFC ?
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