sparklecity Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The hires nam has hardly any precip in NGA or SC. I think the WSW and WWA are likely to bust, but ya never know I guess. The Canadian was still showing a decent event at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I do not think anyone will have a problem with sleet or ZR. Cold is going to be too entrenched and in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The hires nam has hardly any precip in NGA or SC. I think the WSW and WWA are likely to bust, but ya never know I guess. The Canadian was still showing a decent event at 12z.The NAM 32k looks like its still a decent hit for upstate counties above 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I want to say that we could see a shift south given the anomalous cold air mass we currently have (as we did with the last storm), but that's probably just pure wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 From my side of things (a little outside looking in), RAH has added snow and sleet to my forecast for Saturday (rain Sunday). They have also lowered the high for Sunday to 48; which was 58 earlier(so another below normal day). From RAH: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OVERVIEW: 1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERCENTRAL NC LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SAT/SATNIGHT...THOUGH A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTENDINTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGINGSOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WILL INITIATECYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITHA DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVECTINGNORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME FURTHER ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE OHVALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESSACROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTOTHE REGION AGAIN EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.SAT-SUN NIGHT: MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THESYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THEEVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT/WINDFIELDS IS RESULTING IN MAJOR DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWFWITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...TIMING ANDDURATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WELL BELOW NORMALCONFIDENCE PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TYPE(S)...AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION(S)...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL BEMADE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST FOR SAT. QUALITATIVELY...PTYPE CONCERNSPERSIST SAT MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE SAT AFTERNOON GIVEN ANATYPICALLY COLD/BITTER ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY PRIORTO THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THAT A SFC RIDGE AXIS WILLLIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH/NW PIEDMONT THROUGH 00Z SUN. EXPECTTHE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY WX (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) ALONG ANDNORTH OF I-85...ESP IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT (I.E. FORSYTH/GUILFORD/NORTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTIES). THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW ORSNOW/SLEET THROUGH NOON...THEN RAPIDLY TO PL/FZRA AND FINALLY RAINFROM SE-NW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 21-00Z.MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOPERSIST FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ABNORMALLY LOWCONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO ATYPICALLY LARGEVARIABILITY IN LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IFPRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...PTYPE CONCERNS WILL BE PRESENT. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Obviously, the cold front itself the next day will be a warmish rain. I don't think a significant event is likely, but I think we may have a decent shot at some light accumulations. The key will be to get precip. This will be pretty amazing system......Memphis, TN point forecast is for snow/sleet on Friday with temps. in the 30's while on Saturday a high near 62 with rain/tstorms. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow, this is surprisingly bullish for FFC. You have to think that had snowmaggedon 2014 not happened we'd still probably be looking at a watch at most. Friday rush hour is bad enough here in 75 degrees and sun. I'll gladly take an inch or so on this one. Again, with air and ground temps what they are, it would only take a small shift to the south to cause some problems, especially during a Friday rush hour. - Buck I wonder if this advisory this means ATL schools will be announcing closings this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just issued: NCZ003-019-020-VAZ022>024-200430- /O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0002.150221T0500Z-150222T1100Z/ /O.CON.KRNK.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-150220T1500Z/ SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE... ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA 324 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE BY SATURDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS. * HAZARD TYPES...VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS TONIGHT...THEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. * WIND CHILL READINGS...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. * TIMING...LOW WIND CHILLS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WINTRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...VERY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF LEFT EXPOSED TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW AND ICE COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES BY LATER SATURDAY. Well guess your dream may be coming true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 For once, the 4K NAM is more bullish than is the 12K NAM. Usually, in my experience, the 12K tends to smooth things out and spread the wealth, it also tends to miss the topography of the landscape a little more with its lower resolution. The 4K snowfall map is first, followed by the 12K snowfall map from 18Z this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I wonder if this advisory this means ATL schools will be announcing closings this evening. I'd imagine if they were to make any decisions it would just be to close schools an hour or two early. No need to take off the whole day if precip isn't going to come in until the late afternoon as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Those are some hefty totals and Big Frosty is looking pretty good, as are pretty much all of the mountain folk here. The NW piedmont also stands a decent chance at getting accumulating snowfall. Catawba County will probably get a WWA unless there is a further southward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS..FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLEOR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 17. LIGHTAND VARIABLE WINDS..SATURDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND SLEET IN THEAFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. WINDCHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 9 ABOVE..SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION80 PERCENT..SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT..SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. IDK how much is Heavy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I understand. I had pretty much given up until some of the modeling shifted south today. One thing we do have going for us is that it would be a cold storm with temps starting off around 20 at the surface. Frankly, if we get precip I see no way the surface ever gets above freezing until the precip moves out, which could mean icing problems potentially (we saw the models try to warm the surface in GA/SC too much with this last storm). Obviously, the cold front itself the next day will be a warmish rain. I don't think a significant event is likely, but I think we may have a decent shot at some light accumulations. The key will be to get precip. totally agree. I just have a problem with them putting "heavy accumulation possible" directly in the forecast. People start freaking out especially when we dont even have an advisory in Forsyth. More collaboration would be good between offices would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Any Idea as to why Burke and Catawba was not included under the watch why Iredell was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 RAH Disco... SAT-SUN NIGHT: MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THEEVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT/WINDFIELDS IS RESULTING IN MAJOR DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWFWITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...TIMING ANDDURATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WELL BELOW NORMALCONFIDENCE PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TYPE(S)...AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION(S)...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL BEMADE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST FOR SAT. QUALITATIVELY...PTYPE CONCERNSPERSIST SAT MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE SAT AFTERNOON GIVEN ANATYPICALLY COLD/BITTER ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY PRIORTO THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THAT A SFC RIDGE AXIS WILLLIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH/NW PIEDMONT THROUGH 00Z SUN. EXPECTTHE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY WX (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) ALONG ANDNORTH OF I-85...ESP IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT (I.E. FORSYTH/GUILFORD/NORTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTIES). THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW ORSNOW/SLEET THROUGH NOON...THEN RAPIDLY TO PL/FZRA AND FINALLY RAINFROM SE-NW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 21-00Z.MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I wonder if this advisory this means ATL schools will be announcing closings this evening. They'd close schools around here if someone threw a bunch of ice cubes on the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 They'd close schools around here if someone threw a bunch of ice cubes on the street. Around here it's usually a Popsicle In my neck of the woods it has bust written all over it, don't see the moisture meeting the cold in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 At first glance, I didn't see any major changes with the 18z gfs when compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY WX (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...ESP IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT (I.E. FORSYTH/GUILFORD/ NORTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTIES). THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET THROUGH NOON...THEN RAPIDLY TO PL/FZRA AND FINALLY RAIN FROM SE-NW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN EVERYWHERE BY 21-00Z. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. Well, thank God I live a few miles NW of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS is no good for really anyone..... Warmer and dryer for NC. Precip stays north of GA until it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 At first glance, I didn't see any major changes with the 18z gfs when compared to the 12z. Yeah, it's about the same. Definitely not as prolific as the NAM, but it's something. It warms us above freezing at the end, but I doubt that given how cold we start out as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skbl17 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm not sure I'm following FFC's logic on this one. All the models want to bring the precip to far north GA, leaving ATL and AHN high and dry; even the Canadian has trended north. I have a strong feeling that 1/28/14 and Monday's event led them to issue a WWA down here as a safety mechanism, while an SPS would have been just fine. I'd imagine if they were to make any decisions it would just be to close schools an hour or two early. No need to take off the whole day if precip isn't going to come in until the late afternoon as currently modeled. If you believe the Census Bureau and its definition of "metro Atlanta", one county already has: Haralson (three hours early). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What model is FCC using? Congrats Wilks county! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorticity Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I wonder if this advisory this means ATL schools will be announcing closings this evening. I guess since some closed a day in advance of rain. Neither closings nor the FFC forecast look justified dont ya thinl? But what do I know lol. Maybe models become more bullish overnight, but I am in yawn mode for ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You can see that BHM didn't agree with FFC, they have no advisories paralleling theirs west of the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 One thing to note is that there are now some EPS members buying into this event. The EPS mean doubled here to 1". Just a few EPS runs ago, we had absolutely nothing. KMWK (Mt. Airy) is nearly 2.5" on the EPS Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm not sure I'm following FFC's logic on this one. All the models want to bring the precip to far north GA, leaving ATL and AHN high and dry; even the Canadian has trended north. I have a strong feeling that 1/28/14 and Monday's event led them to issue a WWA down here as a safety mechanism, while an SPS would have been just fine. If you believe the Census Bureau and its definition of "metro Atlanta", one county already has: Haralson (three hours early). so what you are saying is that areas south of I-20 that are currently under an advisory shouldn't be? FFC is showing about 1/4" of snow here and some sleet and ice as well. I wonder if this storm will bust to and we end up with no precipitation until it's warmed up. nah, there's no way we could get screwed again. We are due this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What model is FCC using? Congrats Wilks county! FCC looks at the birds and worms like that Wilkesboro guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You can see that BHM didn't agree with FFC, they have no advisories paralleling theirs west of the border so who are you siding with at the present time? one of them will be right....one of them will probably not be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS looks funky to me compared to 6 and 12z. Looks like it is way warmer than what most guidance at the time frames it tries to shoot 850s up. I could be way off but the 18z likes to throw the Randy Johnson slider sometimes. This is some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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