Pilotwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The SERF plumes for Foothills has been increasing each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GSP give WSW for Davie county, 5 miles from me. RAH likely nothing for Forsyth as far as warnings/advisories. Seems like they could get at least a little on the same page. They mention "Heavy snow accumulation possible" on Saturday forecast. What are they smoking? Did they not just see what a warm nose will do just the other night. Sure we might start out as snow, but it will quickly go to sleet/zr. At least that is my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thinking ffc follows suit with winter storm warning for northern counties....Rome to Gainesville northward....also think ATL metro may get into an advisory....very close call on atl metro for this storm...could very well be situation where Atlanta airport gets next to nothing while northern burbs see a quick inch before transitioning to IP ZR AND RAIN..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Please tell me which model has been the most accurate . BF you are ask those people in NY how the Euro Faired I just read one day this week a tweet from Wright weather (I Think) about how the Euro has fallen in the last year or so, Said he expects an update to the Euro model sometime soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is drier....we all just got NAM'd...but in a bad way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Here's a little tid bit from GSP's discussion. Seem's to think the warming of temperatures Saturday maybe overdone on the models if a CAD develops. We will have very low DP leading up to this storm. TEMPS RISE SLOWLY SATURDAY...BUT OUT OF WINTRY PRECIP TERRITORY BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH IS INITIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF HYBRID CAD DEVELOPING...BUT THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT ALLOW IT TO REMAIN FIXED NEAR THE COAST. THIS TO SAY THE TEMP FORECAST IS PRESENTLY A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC...SINCE IF CAD WERE TO DEVELOP IT COULD FURTHER HINDER WARMING. Yeah, the High sliding off into the oblivion of the Atlantic is not optimal..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is colder ....but just overall drier for anyone east of the mountains. Mountains still get slammed in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is colder ....but just overall drier for anyone east of the mountains. Mountains still get slammed in NC.Burg I have been absolutely hammered by the Nam for like 5 runs in a row. This is crazy winter storm watch just issued.Hours 45,48 and 51 the onslaught ensues with 850s and 2m below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I just read one day this week a tweet from Wright weather (I Think) about how the Euro has fallen in the last year or so, Said he expects an update to the Euro model sometime soon! For the Northern Hemisphere at 500mb at 120Hours the Euro is still King (If I had to choose a metric to "grade" a model on this would be it. What was posted yesterday was some cherry picking big time, it was something like just South America at 3 days only looking at like 700mb or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The NAM is still a big hit for the Triad/northern foothills and the SREF plumes are now over 1". Looks like the UKMET shows something, as well, which leaves the Euro as the outlier. We have no room for error with this one, but it's possible. The NAM is consistently hammering this area. I have to be hesitant given the bizarre setup, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The NAM is still a big hit for the Triad/northern foothills and the SREF plumes are now over 1". Looks like the UKMET shows something, as well, which leaves the Euro as the outlier. We have no room for error with this one, but it's possible. The NAM is consistently hammering this area. I have to be hesitant given the bizarre setup, though. You should be hesitant. I can see another sleetfest but not so much snow. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just issued: NCZ003-019-020-VAZ022>024-200430-/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0002.150221T0500Z-150222T1100Z//O.CON.KRNK.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-150220T1500Z/SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA324 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE SATURDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE BY SATURDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS.* HAZARD TYPES...VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS TONIGHT...THEN SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.* WIND CHILL READINGS...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.* TIMING...LOW WIND CHILLS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WINTRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...VERY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF LEFT EXPOSED TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW AND ICE COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES BY LATER SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 FFC appears to be upgrading to a Warning for the existing watch areas & also issuing a WWA for the ATL metro north of I-20. Again, don't know where they're getting it, but I think we'll be high & dry down here watching the mountains pick up a quick 1-2" before changing. SeeText: SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...RECORD COLD TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE MOVING INACROSS NORTH GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RECORD ORNEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH VERY LOW WINDCHILL VALUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA. WINDS ARE STILL A BIT GUSTYTHIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESSAFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS AND SINGLEDIGITS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH WINDCHILL WARNING CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE GA MOUNTAINS. WILLCONTINUE WITH CURRENT WARNING THROUGH 7AM FRI. MODELS IN PRETTY GOODAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF NEXT WINTER PRECIP EVENT. COLDTEMPERATURES STILL FCST TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH DEEP LAYER SO PTYPEHARD PRESSED TO BE ANYTHING OTHER THAN SNOW AT ONSET. WILL SEE SOMEMIXED PTYPE AS THINGS WARM A BIT FRI AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY THE FURTHERSOUTH YOU GO BUT WILL STILL MAINLY SEE FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPTHROUGH SAT MORNING. E HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE OUR CURRENT WINTERWEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTA AREA MAINLYALONG INTERSTATE 20 TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. BOTH THE WARNINGAND ADVISORY GO THROUGH 18Z SAT. LOOKING FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWACROSS NORTH GA WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE ATL AREA. SHOULDSEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 SREF plumes for GSP is around 1/4" accumulation but if you take out the outlier of 3" it drops to almost nothing. I don't have very high expectations for this event so anything more than just seeing flakes would be gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thinking ffc follows suit with winter storm warning for northern counties....Rome to Gainesville northward....also think ATL metro may get into an advisory....very close call on atl metro for this storm...could very well be situation where Atlanta airport gets next to nothing while northern burbs see a quick inch before transitioning to IP ZR AND RAIN..... I gotta say...I am pretty good....seems like this just happened....may go buy a lottery ticket.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I gotta say...I am pretty good....seems like this just happened....may go buy a lottery ticket.... Well-played indeed....I just got the alert on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You should be hesitant. I can see another sleetfest but not so much snow. We'll see. The NAM consistently modeled the prior storm's warm nose above 850 mb (750-800 mb was warm). Looking at the 18z NAM, I see no such warm nose this time around. We'll see. It's a different setup, so you never know. The last storm was annoying as we had 850s in the -6C range with sleet due to torching temps at 750 and 800 mb. Of course, we can and probably will get screwed. Looks like the NAM has a few inches of snow followed by IP then ZR for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 FFC is going from one extreme to the other, hope whatever they're seeing materializes. Perhaps they're banking on the cold pushing the system a bit further south them currently apparently modeled. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Much of North GA has been under a winter storm watch since yesterday afternoon. image_full1.gif I expect those to change to advisories soon. FFC appears to be upgrading to a Warning for the existing watch areas & also issuing a WWA for the ATL metro north of I-20. Again, don't know where they're getting it, but I think we'll be high & dry down here watching the mountains pick up a quick 1-2" before changing. SeeText: SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... RECORD COLD TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE MOVING IN ACROSS NORTH GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA. WINDS ARE STILL A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE GA MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WARNING THROUGH 7AM FRI. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF NEXT WINTER PRECIP EVENT. COLD TEMPERATURES STILL FCST TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH DEEP LAYER SO PTYPE HARD PRESSED TO BE ANYTHING OTHER THAN SNOW AT ONSET. WILL SEE SOME MIXED PTYPE AS THINGS WARM A BIT FRI AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO BUT WILL STILL MAINLY SEE FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIP THROUGH SAT MORNING. E HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE OUR CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTA AREA MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 20 TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY GO THROUGH 18Z SAT. LOOKING FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH GA WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE ATL AREA. SHOULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ICE. LMFAO!! Nice call snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The NAM consistently modeled the prior storm's warm nose above 850 mb (750-800 mb was warm). Looking at the 18z NAM, I see no such warm nose this time around. We'll see. It's a different setup, so you never know. The last storm was annoying as we had 850s in the -6C range with sleet due to torching temps at 750 and 800 mb. Of course, we can and probably will get screwed. Looks like the NAM has a few inches of snow followed by IP then ZR for us. This is true. Just not feeling this one for the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Counties with the Winter Storm Watch were upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. New Winter Weather Advisory issued for all of the ATL metro and into Athens. FFC still seems pretty bullish. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICHIS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ATLANTAMETROPOLITAN AREA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCHES OF SNOW...AND 0.1 INCHES OF ICE.* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING...TRANSITIONS TO SLEET ANDTHEN FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 WWA for Metro Atlanta Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA338 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015GAZ030>039-041>051-200445-/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0005.150220T1800Z-150221T1800Z/POLK-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON338 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICHIS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCHES OF SNOW...AND 0.1 INCHES OF ICE.* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING...TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.* IMPACTS...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWER LINES IS POSSIBLE. SOME TREES AND POWER LINES COULD COME DOWN CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING. Winter Storm Warning for North Georgia Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA338 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015GAZ001>004-011>014-019>024-200445-/O.UPG.KFFC.WS.A.0002.150220T1800Z-150221T1800Z//O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0002.150220T1800Z-150221T1800Z/DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE338 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICHIS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF ICE.* LOCATIONS...FAR NORTH GEORGIA OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BUT NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUMMERVILLE TO JASPER TO HOMER.* HAZARD TYPES...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.* TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWER LINES IS LIKELY. SOME TREES AND POWER LINES COULD COME DOWN CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Will be interesting to see if BMX issues any WWA for their eastern-most counties to account for a stiff CAD that can sometimes push into the central time zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is true. Just not feeling this one for the piedmont. You guys definitely have a real chance. Even over to RDU we're still right at 0c for the 850 with this simulated radar: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Not even trying to think we have a real chance of a significant event but we could easily see something before the switch over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow, this is surprisingly bullish for FFC. You have to think that had snowmaggedon 2014 not happened we'd still probably be looking at a watch at most. Friday rush hour is bad enough here in 75 degrees and sun. I'll gladly take an inch or so on this one. Again, with air and ground temps what they are, it would only take a small shift to the south to cause some problems, especially during a Friday rush hour. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 From what im seeing on my point and click, that would probably warrant a WWA for upstate. Wouldn't be surprised if GSP pulls the trigger on one here before long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is true. Just not feeling this one for the piedmont. I understand. I had pretty much given up until some of the modeling shifted south today. One thing we do have going for us is that it would be a cold storm with temps starting off around 20 at the surface. Frankly, if we get precip I see no way the surface ever gets above freezing until the precip moves out, which could mean icing problems potentially (we saw the models try to warm the surface in GA/SC too much with this last storm). Obviously, the cold front itself the next day will be a warmish rain. I don't think a significant event is likely, but I think we may have a decent shot at some light accumulations. The key will be to get precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow, this is surprisingly bullish for FFC. You have to think that had snowmaggedon 2014 not happened we'd still probably be looking at a watch at most. Friday rush hour is bad enough here in 75 degrees and sun. I'll gladly take an inch or so on this one. Again, with air and ground temps what they are, it would only take a small shift to the south to cause some problems, especially during a Friday rush hour. - Buck Very fair point. They're issuing a WWA for the I-20 corridor strictly as a CYA after what happened last year. It does make a lot of sense. Normally they'd wait for an event to start before issuing warnings or advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Well, the 18z hi-res nam has 2.5 inches of snow followed by .56" of QPF that falls as Freezing Rain for Greensboro. Let's hope this doesn't happen! #icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GSP 3:00pm AFD "AS OF 245 PM THU...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SERN STATES WILL BRIEFLY REMAINUNDER QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW WHILE ONE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY FROM THEEAST COAST AND ANOTHER DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THE HEIGHT FALLS TO OURWEST WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONGTHE BOUNDARY OF THE COASTAL HIGH. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS THIS LOWWEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF ITSTRACK WILL BRING QPF INTO THE CWFA. POPS INCREASE THRU FRINIGHT...PEAKING SATURDAY MRNG BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER NWD INTOTHE UPPER OH VALLEY AND A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO OUR AREA. THE INCUMBENTAIRMASS BEING VERY COLD...PTYPES AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT WILL BEALL SNOW. A WARM NOSE WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY FROM THE SW...AND ASPOPS INCREASE TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEESNOW/SLEET...WITH FREEZING RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE SW MTNS AND SRNGA/SC PIEDMONT. TEMPS RISE SLOWLY SATURDAY...BUT OUT OF WINTRY PRECIPTERRITORY BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH ISINITIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF HYBRID CAD DEVELOPING...BUT THE UPPER FLOWDOES NOT ALLOW IT TO REMAIN FIXED NEAR THE COAST. THIS TO SAY THETEMP FORECAST IS PRESENTLY A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC...SINCE IF CAD WERE TODEVELOP IT COULD FURTHER HINDER WARMING.THE TOP-DOWN TECHNIQUE WAS USED TO DERIVE PTYPES GIVEN THE COMPLEXVERTICAL PROFILES. USED A BLEND OF WPC QPF WITH RAW GUIDANCE ASDEEMED APPROPRIATE BY THE EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF BEST FORCING.WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY IN OUR NRN TIER OF NC ZONESWHERE QPF DURATION IS LONGEST AND TEMPS COLDEST OVERALL. SOME ICE ISALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THOUGH SNOW AND ICE TOTALS AREINDIVIDUALLY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CENTRAL-SRN MTNS...THECOMBINATION THEREOF AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS IN HIGHELEVATIONS AS THE 850MB JET ARRIVES SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARNING MAYEVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN RAISED FOR BOTHTHE AFOREMENTIONED NRN NC ZONES AS WELL AS THE TENN BORDER ZONES.TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AGAINRAMPING UP FROM THE WEST AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSUREDEVELOPS OVER THE GULF STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST...AND AS COLDER ANDDRIER AIR WORK INTO THE TENN VALLEY. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR0C...THE WARM NOSE IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR ANYTHREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE THAT LEVEL.CURRENTLY THE WHOLE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE. RAIN RATES MAYBE HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POPS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AFTERDAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO FOR MAXES SUN AFTN." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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