LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Discuss this storm here : AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA240 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LATE WEEK WINTERPRECIP POTENTIAL. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITHTIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET EARLY FRIDAY AND THE PROLONGEDPERIOD OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THISCONTINUES TO BE A TRICKY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FORNOW...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW AT THE ONSET ACROSS NORTHGEORGIA...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAYAFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO ALLRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS TRANSITIONOF P-TYPES AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA. THIS TRANSITION IS HIGHLYDEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF THE WEDGE SATURDAY AND HOW QUICKLY ITERODES...ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. FORNOW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTSIN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 0.5-1 INCHACROSS THE ATL METRO AREA...AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIAAND 2-4 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS FORECAST TO CONTINUETO EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES ANDSNOWFALL/ICE AMOUNTS. MAPS COURTESY OF WEATHERBELL - NOTE SOME OF THESE MAPS MAY CONTIAN WEDNESDAY SNOW. CMC 12Z 2/17/15 EPS Control from 12Z 2/17/15 EPS Mean from 12Z 2/17/15 GFS 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 It's safe to say a storm is coming but will it trend north or south this time? I think this is a better shot for GA/SC at the moment than this past system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Cold air yes... but the moisture seems too lacking for me to feel the love just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is an interesting setup, hopefully this lead wave will trend stronger like the last storm. The ensemble mean and EPS looks very promising for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Cold air yes... but the moisture seems too lacking for me to feel the love just yet.Doesn't take much to lay down 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not a fan over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Snow entering N. GA at hour 81 on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'll glady take my 2-3" of snow and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 18z GFS soundings show decent precip with a frozen column for 9 hours Saturday morning in parts of WNC. That would support snow before a switchover to freezing rain/rain. Column also looks frozen or close to for GSO and those within around 50 miles. High has trended a little weaker but seems to be in a better position to provide cold to the CAD area on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like a bunch of rain to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like a bunch of rain to me. Really? It does? Well I like what my computer is showing better then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like a bunch of rain to me. Did you look at the column soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like a bunch of rain to me.After 2-3 inches of snow, so it's all good! I can make a snowman, and watch it melt ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It didn't seem like that dramatic of a change from the 12z, but I guess it could be the beginning of a trend, I'm no expert. But yes with the way the models have been, it could be all rain next run. That risk is always there. I'll glady take my 2-3" of snow and call it a day. If I were offered 0.5-1.0" of snow from this system on the northside of ATL, I'd gladly take it and call it a storm. I think that getting 2-3" is quite a longshot as of now as this is a clipper system with a WNW 500 mb flow and there is no closed upper low or even a clearcut sfc low. It is so weird! I have found zero instances since the late 1800's of a 3.5"+ storm in the city, itself, from a clipper. So, I think that the chance for over 3" is probably no more than 1%. I'd say maybe 5% chance at best for 2-3". So, heck yeah I'd take 2-3". That's a no brainer! I mean there could easily be no snow at all just as the 18Z GFS shows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Let's do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 18z GFS looks like it could start out as an inch of snow or so before going over to ZR, then rain. I'd check out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 18z GFS looks like it could start out as an inch of snow or so before going over to ZR, then rain. I'd check out.GSP said soundings start out as snow for all, then changeover from the south, didnt say anything about accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0z NAM looks decent with some snow/sleet west of CLT http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021800/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_26.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z NAM drops a solid 3 to 5 inches for my back yard. It actually drops up to an inch of liquid for north central Georgia(Mainly Snow). Maybe just once the NAM can be right this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nam drops 3-4 inches from north ga into wnc. Then at 84 hours 850 temps warm above freezing with heavy moisture coming in with temps in the low 20's. 84 hour nam so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z NAM drops a solid 3 to 5 inches for my back yard. It actually drops up to an inch of liquid for north central Georgia(Mainly Snow). Maybe just once the NAM can be right this far out. check out the 850 winds at the end of the run, coming from the sw out of the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nam drops 3-4 inches from north ga into wnc. Then at 84 hours 850 temps warm above freezing with heavy moisture coming in with temps in the low 20's. 84 hour nam so.... The NAM tends to be overamped at 84 hours so its a bit surprising to see that its not overly more north and west of the GFS/Euro at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The NAM tends to be overamped at 84 hours so its a bit surprising to see that its not overly more north and west of the GFS/Euro at 84 hours.this is definitely true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Frank Strait says this storm is a no go because of the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Frank Strait says this storm is a no go because of the SE ridge. The overall storm is going to be a cutter. But we will be getting wintry precip from overrunning out ahead of the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Big storm start out as snow, If high can hang inland (which models slide it OTS) could be a major ICE STORM for A lot of folks! I think there is a pretty good chance the high holds longer than modeled.... JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The overall storm is going to be a cutter. But we will be getting wintry precip from overrunning out ahead of the main storm. Exactly. I don't think anyone is a fan of how the storm ends up, but there's no denying the opportunity for the western half of our subforum to see the early moisture being thrown into the very cold airmass. check out the 850 winds at the end of the run, coming from the sw out of the gulf. Yes...the mechanism for generating the precip looks legit....850mb warm air advection shown below (overrunning). It's just a matter of how far to the south and east the precip will extend. The 12z Euro didn't extend it as far to the south and east, but other modeling did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The first snow event from January 2000 was the top CIPS analog off the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z NAM had it in the low 20's Saturday morning at GSO with almost 1" of snow by 7am. If steady precip continues, it will take some time to warm the surface 10 degrees. So, lot's of options to be worked out. While I hope not, one of the options would be for the precip to not move in until later on Saturday once the temps warm up above freezing. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'll preface this with that fact that I am very much an amateur, but it seems over the past few years that the modeling has consistently underestimated CAD in this area (latest storm is an example). This weekend's event will be coming on the back of the coldest air this area has seen in 30 years and a decent snow/sleet pack over central NC. I'd bet that CAD will be more resilient than the models suggest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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