TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Mesoanalysis looks well west with the convergence compared to the hires surface wind products forecasted by rap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Mesoanalysis looks well west with the convergence compared to the hires surface wind products forecasted by rap. HRRR is catching on and would be west with the NAM. RAP is east with the CMC. Who knows, will be a nowcast. But there should be a pretty intense, blossoming blob of moisture to our south mid evening tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Neutral tilt to the upper level trough over the OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surface low down to 1008mb, over western Lake Erie and Southern Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like the NEK may get into the tip of the finger of the heaviest QPF axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 3-4" for me, and 4-6" for Provincetown, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Radar is not going boom of Essex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Radar is not going boom of Essex county. We have booming flurries here now!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Scott I think Cape Cod could see amounts near 6" on the Outer Cape and Provincetown region, everywhere east of Harwich is game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The latest GYX offering, introducing pink Seems like that's become a permanent feature on that part of the map, lol. Just start with that and build outward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Seems like that's become a permanent feature on that part of the map, lol. Just start with that and build outward. nice sucker hole again. just like last event. although can't complain with 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Radar is not going boom of Essex county. I don't see a flurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looking more and more meh here. Good luck to my NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looking more and more meh here. Good luck to my NE. well i guess i have nothing to worry about... oh well, would have been fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hit's me pretty hard too, not epic but with ratios it's advisory + RAP/NAM/RGEM all agree, a blossoming area of moisture will move over eastern MA or the Cape tonight. Just looking at Ginxy's mid levels it looks like this may be more impressive than modeled even now. You sure ratios will be good on cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Some hate this but very strong windex squalls bring in the Arctic assault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This event is heading toward the trash bin. Congrats winnebago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You sure ratios will be good on cape No they'll be 10 to 1, it's warm. Still advisory on the RGEM though or close enough. Sounds like the euro was a no go though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Eight posts in this thread in the last two hours. I guess it'll be up to the Maine contingent to keep this one afloat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Eight posts in this thread in the last two hours. I guess it'll be up to the Maine contingent to keep this one afloat.... All five of us .. lol! Gonna lean heavily on Jeff and Chris for updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 All five of us .. lol! Gonna lean heavily on Jeff and Chris for updates Yup, Looks like its going to be pretty much a maine special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like the NEK may get into the tip of the finger of the heaviest QPF axis. 850mb & 925mb winds look to be South or at least ESE. This will help for areas along W-E barriers (Sheffield Heights). Newark, East Haven, Sutton area maybe up into Willoughby area. However the flow is very very light less than 10mph. Not a big orographic event for the NEK. Might have to watch for northern edge dry air sneaking in but I couldn't rule out 2-4" isolated 5" in enhanced areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 All five of us .. lol! Gonna lean heavily on Jeff and Chris for updates I guess this is the part of the threat where we speculate about when and where the warnings will be hoisted. My guess is that, as often seems to be the case, the Cumberland-York line will be the dividing line - with counties to the NE of that boundary getting warnings and to the SW getting advisories (I live less than a mile NE of the county line). Funny how, with all the model waffling over the last two days, this appears to be settling into a climo-typical setup with a midcoast bullseye. Still not a done deal, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 1250 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOWSHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS E NEW ENG.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER CLOUDS CONFINED TO MUCH OF E MA AND RI AND GUIDANCE ISEXPANDING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...SOEXPECT SUNSHINE TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE CT VALLEYAND WESTERN NEW ENG.HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS E MATHROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO W NEW ENGLANDLATE TODAY AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ASSOCD WITH ANINVERTED TROF. ANY SNOWFALL TODAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT.TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE SIMILAR TO 850 MB TEMPS OF -15CTO -18C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...TONIGHT...INVERTED TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST MASS COAST DURINGTHE NIGHT. THE HIRES WRF-ARW KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS MORE SPECIFIC TOTHE MASS NORTH SHORE WHILE THE WRF-NMM SPREADS POPS TO ALL OFEASTERN MASS. GEM REGIONAL FAVORS SNSH IN ESSEX COUNTY AND ALONGTHE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST. UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SMALL SCALE EFFECTSON THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FORSNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY ON OUTER CAPE COD AND ONCAPE ANN/NORTH SHORE. IF WE GO WITH LIKELY POPS...WILL HOLD THEMJUST OFF THE COAST OF CAPE ANN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The only thing better then 8's are 9's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I guess this is the part of the threat where we speculate about when and where the warnings will be hoisted. My guess is that, as often seems to be the case, the Cumberland-York line will be the dividing line - with counties to the NE of that boundary getting warnings and to the SW getting advisories (I live less than a mile NE of the county line). Funny how, with all the model waffling over the last two days, this appears to be settling into a climo-typical setup with a midcoast bullseye. Still not a done deal, obviously. Yeah, no accumulation predictions from me other than I'd wager some town slant-weenies 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What was Euro QPF for say DAW/PWM/ Over to say MId coast? anyone have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This was the 12z GGEM totals from today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What was Euro QPF for say DAW/PWM/ Over to say MId coast? anyone have it. .25-.50", DAW/PWM, East of there .50"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 All five of us .. lol! Gonna lean heavily on Jeff and Chris for updates There's a few of us lurkers too but yea, looking to others for guidence when possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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