Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Wed Feb 18th Convective Snow Shower Chances


burgertime

Recommended Posts

That's what I am worried about. I keep remembering the half inch of snow back in Jan 05 that had people stuck on the road for hours. This reminds me of the same type of scenario.

models look to have ti starting around 4ish, once it starts people will probably all rush on the road at the same time and that is where the problems will start.  the wake county scanner should be a good listen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 579
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Only concern is 2m temps, we are already at 34F and it's 10am.  We will definitely get to atleast 40F today, probably low 40's, doubt we see all snow, probably rain and then brief snow....sunangleFTL.

 

NAM had us at 29 and GFS at 27 at 10am.  

 

Edit:  Although the warmer temps/sun may add to the instability?

When the last front came thru I stating getting snow with a temp at 43; but within minutes it dropped to 34. That's some of the warmest temps with snow I've ever seen, but also maybe the thermometer just didn't have time to drop as fast with the incoming air.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

models look to have ti starting around 4ish, once it starts people will probably all rush on the road at the same time and that is where the problems will start.  the wake county scanner should be a good listen.

 

That is what I am worried about, too. I am supposed to work until 4:30, but I might leave an hour earlier. I think people will be caught off guard with this like they were back in Jan 05. We'll have to see what it does to the west of us early this afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is what I am worried about, too. I am supposed to work until 4:30, but I might leave an hour earlier. I think people will be caught off guard with this like they were back in Jan 05. We'll have to see what it does to the west of us early this afternoon.

heaviest per most of the modeling doesn't start until 5pm-ish....4pm sets the stage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only concern is 2m temps, we are already at 34F and it's 10am.  We will definitely get to atleast 40F today, probably low 40's, doubt we see all snow, probably rain and then brief snow....sunangleFTL.

 

NAM had us at 29 and GFS at 27 at 10am.  

 

Edit:  Although the warmer temps/sun may add to the instability?

Here is what happened in my back yard in Feb 2013. If you get under the heavy stuff temps will crash quickly. The snow started at 4:00 and I got 2.8 inches of snow in about an hour with much of that coming in 30-40 munutes.

 

post-962-0-55313200-1424274044_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GSP update.  Note the I-40 mention!

 

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE MTNS AS SCHEDULED.
EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THRU
THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK
CONTAINMENT AND DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES. FORECAST ACCUMS ACROSS THE MTNS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH THE
TOTAL AMOUNTS...INCLUDING SNOW TONIGHT...TO END UP AT HIGH END
ADVISORY FROM MADISON NORTH AND SOLID ADVISORY SOUTH OF THERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME VERY GUSTY TODAY WITH THE DEEP MIXING AND LOW
INSTABILITY BRINGING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS. WILL WRAP THE WIND WORDING INTO THE ADV.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL EXTEND THE
WINTER WX ADV FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS. THE ACCUMS WILL
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW SHOWERS CREATING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND BLOWING
SNOW.
ICE LADEN TREES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO FALL AS WELL.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA...CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. SOME GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE NC MTNS...AND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC SRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS HERE WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS THE STRONGER FORCING
WILL BE FARTHER NORTH. THAT SAID...OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL. AGAIN...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
HAVING ICE LADEN TREES...THIS CREATES ENUF CONCERN TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY EVEN THO WIND SPEEDS AND DURATION MAY NOT QUITE REACH
CRITERIA.

FINALLY...WILL DROP WITH BLACK ICE ADVISORY TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. IT WAS TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM ANYWAY. FCST HIGHS
STILL LOOK ON TRACK...AS THE COLD TEMPS AND REDEVELOPING CLOUDS WERE
ALREADY FACTORED IN.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RAH doesn't sound impressed.

 

IN ADDITION... A QUICK BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND MID AFTERNOON IN THE TRIAD... AND LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE TRIANGLE. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LAST 30 MINUTES OR LESS AT
ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER... TRAVEL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surprised at the RAH NWS. Many times travel has been impacted with above freezing temps when it comes down fast and heavy. Even reinstated this on the news this morning to correct Greg Fishel's statement from last night.

And only a dusting is possible. Even WRAL said it could easily be more-----and they are usually ultra conservative.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surprised at the RAH NWS. Many times travel has been impacted with above freezing temps when it comes down fast and heavy. Even reinstated this on the news this morning to correct Greg Fishel's statement from last night.

 

Especially with heavy rates and if everyone gets on the road at the same time once it starts, like in Jan 05. Maybe the roads are warmer this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Especially with heavy rates and if everyone gets on the road at the same time once it starts, like in Jan 05. Maybe the roads are warmer this time.

Especially with heavy rates and if everyone gets on the road at the same time once it starts, like in Jan 05. Maybe the roads are warmer this time.

I'd think they would be cold. It's been pretty cold lately and we're just covered in sleet and ice---most still are lol I,m not an expert though. I only took Met 100 at NCSU. So, I'm not going to pretend to know. I know the plow came thru and didn't have the shovel down low enough and basically left everything. No black showing. It's slick a packed now. Tax dollars at work.

I can say it's cooler here than the tv is saying. Im reading at 34. I'm in NW Raleigh near Glenwood and Millbrook.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1023 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FRIGID WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.A VERY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY EXTREMELY COLD AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS REACHING THE PIEDMONT.

SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...
ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...STUART
1023 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW SQUALLS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN A BRIEF PERIOD.

* LOCATIONS...ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON THEN LOW WIND CHILL
  READINGS.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...SNOW INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FRIGID WINDS
  CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW COULD CAUSE ROADS TO BECOME
  SNOW COVERED AGAIN. LOW WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN FROSTBITE
  AND HYPOTHERMIA.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...EXCEPT GUSTS
  TO AROUND 50 MPH WITHIN SNOW SQUALLS.

* VISIBILITIES...FALLING TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
  SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S TODAY...DROPPING
  TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 TONIGHT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's getting over the mountains and you can start to see the horizontal streaks that have been depicted on the models.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=gsp&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

I don't understand how we get Winter Weather Advisories for a trace of freezing rain and black ice, but can't get one for this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...