DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That's what I am worried about. I keep remembering the half inch of snow back in Jan 05 that had people stuck on the road for hours. This reminds me of the same type of scenario. models look to have ti starting around 4ish, once it starts people will probably all rush on the road at the same time and that is where the problems will start. the wake county scanner should be a good listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Only concern is 2m temps, we are already at 34F and it's 10am. We will definitely get to atleast 40F today, probably low 40's, doubt we see all snow, probably rain and then brief snow....sunangleFTL. NAM had us at 29 and GFS at 27 at 10am. Edit: Although the warmer temps/sun may add to the instability? When the last front came thru I stating getting snow with a temp at 43; but within minutes it dropped to 34. That's some of the warmest temps with snow I've ever seen, but also maybe the thermometer just didn't have time to drop as fast with the incoming air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Thats good to hear. Watching the radar as it seems to already be breaking containment in the NW part of my county. Light flakes falling here now...nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Maybe the biggest impact will be that there will be just enough precip to make the roads wet again just before dark and the cold sets in. #flashfreeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 models look to have ti starting around 4ish, once it starts people will probably all rush on the road at the same time and that is where the problems will start. the wake county scanner should be a good listen. That is what I am worried about, too. I am supposed to work until 4:30, but I might leave an hour earlier. I think people will be caught off guard with this like they were back in Jan 05. We'll have to see what it does to the west of us early this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 WXSOUTH @WxSouth 2m2 minutes ago SPC highlights #ncwx #vawx for convective snow chances this afternoon. Steep lapse rates , instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That is what I am worried about, too. I am supposed to work until 4:30, but I might leave an hour earlier. I think people will be caught off guard with this like they were back in Jan 05. We'll have to see what it does to the west of us early this afternoon. heaviest per most of the modeling doesn't start until 5pm-ish....4pm sets the stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Only concern is 2m temps, we are already at 34F and it's 10am. We will definitely get to atleast 40F today, probably low 40's, doubt we see all snow, probably rain and then brief snow....sunangleFTL. NAM had us at 29 and GFS at 27 at 10am. Edit: Although the warmer temps/sun may add to the instability? Here is what happened in my back yard in Feb 2013. If you get under the heavy stuff temps will crash quickly. The snow started at 4:00 and I got 2.8 inches of snow in about an hour with much of that coming in 30-40 munutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 heaviest per most of the modeling doesn't start until 5pm-ish....4pm sets the stage. That's why it might be better to leave before everyone else gets out of work. The good thing is there are less folks at work today because school is closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT660 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Snow just started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just saw 24 flurries. Yes I counted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GSP update. Note the I-40 mention! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 1030 AM...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE MTNS AS SCHEDULED.EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THRUTHE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAKCONTAINMENT AND DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THEAFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE STEEPENING LAPSERATES. FORECAST ACCUMS ACROSS THE MTNS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH THETOTAL AMOUNTS...INCLUDING SNOW TONIGHT...TO END UP AT HIGH ENDADVISORY FROM MADISON NORTH AND SOLID ADVISORY SOUTH OF THERE. WINDSWILL ALSO BECOME VERY GUSTY TODAY WITH THE DEEP MIXING AND LOWINSTABILITY BRINGING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THESTRONGER SNOW SHOWERS. WILL WRAP THE WIND WORDING INTO THE ADV.AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL EXTEND THEWINTER WX ADV FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THESTRONG WIND GUSTS AND DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS. THE ACCUMS WILLGENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THEDEVELOPING INSTABILITY...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE STRONGER SNOWSHOWERS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILLACCOMPANY THE SNOW SHOWERS CREATING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND BLOWINGSNOW. ICE LADEN TREES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO FALL AS WELL.ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA...CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN THISAFTERNOON WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. SOME GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE NC MTNS...AND WILL LIKELYDEVELOP ACROSS THE NC SRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...ANYACCUMULATIONS HERE WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS THE STRONGER FORCINGWILL BE FARTHER NORTH. THAT SAID...OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS WILLDEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL. AGAIN...WITH MANY LOCATIONSHAVING ICE LADEN TREES...THIS CREATES ENUF CONCERN TO ISSUE A WINDADVISORY EVEN THO WIND SPEEDS AND DURATION MAY NOT QUITE REACHCRITERIA.FINALLY...WILL DROP WITH BLACK ICE ADVISORY TO AVOID CONFUSION WITHTHE ADVISORY FOR NOW. IT WAS TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM ANYWAY. FCST HIGHSSTILL LOOK ON TRACK...AS THE COLD TEMPS AND REDEVELOPING CLOUDS WEREALREADY FACTORED IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 14z HRRR for 200pm Courtesy of Weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yes sir! Current radar trends show a nice fetch coming out of Avery... GSP update. Note the I-40 mention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 RAH doesn't sound impressed. IN ADDITION... A QUICK BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THEARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTEDTO BE AROUND MID AFTERNOON IN THE TRIAD... AND LATE AFTERNOON INTHE TRIANGLE. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LAST 30 MINUTES OR LESS ATANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.HOWEVER... TRAVEL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE AS TEMPERATURESSHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nashville broke their 4+ year long streak of no >1" snowfalls with this system. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surprised at the RAH NWS. Many times travel has been impacted with above freezing temps when it comes down fast and heavy. Even reinstated this on the news this morning to correct Greg Fishel's statement from last night. And only a dusting is possible. Even WRAL said it could easily be more-----and they are usually ultra conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surprised at the RAH NWS. Many times travel has been impacted with above freezing temps when it comes down fast and heavy. Even reinstated this on the news this morning to correct Greg Fishel's statement from last night. Especially with heavy rates and if everyone gets on the road at the same time once it starts, like in Jan 05. Maybe the roads are warmer this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Especially with heavy rates and if everyone gets on the road at the same time once it starts, like in Jan 05. Maybe the roads are warmer this time. Especially with heavy rates and if everyone gets on the road at the same time once it starts, like in Jan 05. Maybe the roads are warmer this time. I'd think they would be cold. It's been pretty cold lately and we're just covered in sleet and ice---most still are lol I,m not an expert though. I only took Met 100 at NCSU. So, I'm not going to pretend to know. I know the plow came thru and didn't have the shovel down low enough and basically left everything. No black showing. It's slick a packed now. Tax dollars at work. I can say it's cooler here than the tv is saying. Im reading at 34. I'm in NW Raleigh near Glenwood and Millbrook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hiawassee GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That 14z HRRR is directly over me lol,we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 latest hrrr looks great for rdu. nice convective banding showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's getting over the mountains and you can start to see the horizontal streaks that have been depicted on the models. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=gsp&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Flurries and snow showers in the m-town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA1023 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015...PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENINGFOLLOWED BY FRIGID WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY....A VERY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THISAFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY EXTREMELY COLD AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWESTWINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRINGACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTACCUMULATIONS REACHING THE PIEDMONT.SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...STUART1023 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THISEVENING......WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO10 AM EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW SQUALLS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PMEST THIS EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN A BRIEF PERIOD.* LOCATIONS...ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON THEN LOW WIND CHILL READINGS.* WIND CHILL READINGS...ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.* TIMING...SNOW INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FRIGID WINDS CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW COULD CAUSE ROADS TO BECOME SNOW COVERED AGAIN. LOW WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WITHIN SNOW SQUALLS.* VISIBILITIES...FALLING TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S TODAY...DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's getting over the mountains and you can start to see the horizontal streaks that have been depicted on the models. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=gsp&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no I don't understand how we get Winter Weather Advisories for a trace of freezing rain and black ice, but can't get one for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Temp at 37F at RDU at Noon under mostly sunny skies. We need some clouds up in her, stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Flurries and snow showers in the m-town.Radar doesn't look half bad for some snow showers within the next hour. I get out of class at 12:50 hope it holds off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Flurries and snow showers in the m-town. Radar is starting to fill in a bit. Won't take much to stick to everything so we have that going for us at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I don't understand how we get Winter Weather Advisories for a trace of freezing rain and black ice, but can't get one for this. I'm guessing they are waiting to see the obs to the west to determine how impactful it might be to travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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