burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 It really is going to be pointless depending on the RAP or HRRR ....maybe will give a good idea about a very general path but I expect we will see something more widespread or moisture popping up out of nowhere much like a summer thunderstorm with this system. It does look like though it will be further north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It really is going to be pointless depending on the RAP or HRRR ....maybe will give a good idea about a very general path but I expect we will see something more widespread or moisture popping up out of nowhere much like a summer thunderstorm with this system. It does look like though it will be further north though. Thats the thing with these type of setups you just never know.....it could get over the mts and go nuts with a decent size area of general snow or it could be streaky and spotty. Just got to hope that it will be a overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It really is going to be pointless depending on the RAP or HRRR ....maybe will give a good idea about a very general path but I expect we will see something more widespread or moisture popping up out of nowhere much like a summer thunderstorm with this system. It does look like though it will be further north though. Keep in mind HRRR is processed hourly. For example, we depend on it heavily in the mountains when we are outside hunting, hiking or other and it does an excellent job of giving one to several hours warning on development of pop up thunderstorms in the summer time. It has been extremely valuable with the modeling of the next several hours. Expect to outlook for a point in time (this afternoon) to change as more updated data is pushed into the model each hour this morning. For this afternoon, I would expect the coverage to be relatively spotty in several thin convective lines, but those lucky enough to be under one of those lines will likely get a very quick ground cover less than 1 inch and enough to stay around in many places the remainder of the week as a bonus with the extreme cold moving in. Enjoy what we all get ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Latest from FFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA805 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015.UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO REPORTS OF SNOWSTICKING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. CURRENTLY WE HAVE ABOUT A QUARTEROF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THE TAILEND OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER TN SWEEPS THROUGH NORTH GA TODAY. WE CANEXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOONAS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRESAT 00Z THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Latest from FFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 805 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015 .UPDATE... HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO REPORTS OF SNOW STICKING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. CURRENTLY WE HAVE ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER TN SWEEPS THROUGH NORTH GA TODAY. WE CAN EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 00Z THU. Wife called to say we have a flizzard outside and my snow starved son is going ape caca. It is sticking but so light it wont add up to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Updated 12z HRRR Model Run for NC on Convective Snow Shower chances. After existing the mountains, it depicts a Northern Mecklenburg County NC to VA Line passing of the convective line. Image courtesy of WeatherBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wife called to say we have a flizzard outside and my snow starved son is going ape caca. It is sticking but so light it wont add up to much. LOL!! If we did manage an inch it would shock me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Flurries here and all my friends are freaking out thinking they might get stuck at school again. Lots of trauma from last year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 good friend of mine lives in Des Moines Iowa. This upper level disturbance was there yesterday. They got an unexpected 3 inches of snow....and it was even in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Flurries here and all my friends are freaking out thinking they might get stuck at school again. Lots of trauma from last year lol We've got some pretty good flurries coming down over here as well. 26 degrees and getting breezy.....the hotels are gonna be full around here with all the folks still without power. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 sref plumes up to .5" snow for rdu, has been hovering around .1-.15" the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Based on Gold Rush standards I've got an awesome snow pan, over 100 "flakes" in the bottom. No nuggets unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 4km NAM...the banding will be feast or famine...still like I-40 corridor for atleast one of the bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Updated 12z HRRR Model Run for NC on Convective Snow Shower chances. After existing the mountains, it depicts a Northern Mecklenburg County NC to VA Line passing of the convective line. Image courtesy of WeatherBell Nice, just like summer when about every convective line just misses me to the north. This system is different from Feb 2013 in that the trajectory of that line was much more NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Based on Gold Rush standards I've got an awesome snow pan, over 100 "flakes" in the bottom. No nuggets unfortunately. LOL! I've got a light coating up here... still coming down ever so lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 4km NAM...the banding will be feast or famine...still like I-40 corridor for atleast one of the bands. Well done, Pack! That lower band of .1 is directly over my house! This one has the potential to be an overperformer. I'm not usually enthusiastic about these systems, but I'm feeling pretty good that some folks will see an inch of snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wife called to say we have a flizzard outside and my snow starved son is going ape caca. It is sticking but so light it wont add up to much. We had some light graupel here but it won't take much to coat everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 surprisingly the light snow made it across the mountains - light snow here at the moment. and a rare snow on snow/ice at that. still a lot on the ground (relatively speaking lol) from earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I can only hope the 12z hrrr verefies. That's A Asheboro, Randolph coun t y speacil. You get hit by the main line, but there is a finger of heavier precip out front. Well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Light flakes falling here now...nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Two frames of the 6z 4km NAM for RDU...thundersnow? and heavy rates by 6pm...hodo looks awesome at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 HRRR simulated radar at hour 6: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=00600ℑ=data%2Fhrrr%2F14%2Fhrrr_east-us_00600_sim_radar.gif&model=hrrr&area=east-us¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150218+14+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well done, Pack! That lower band of .1 is directly over my house! This one has the potential to be an overperformer. I'm not usually enthusiastic about these systems, but I'm feeling pretty good that some folks will see an inch of snow out of this. RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 HRRR simulated radar at hour 6: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=00600ℑ=data%2Fhrrr%2F14%2Fhrrr_east-us_00600_sim_radar.gif&model=hrrr&area=east-us¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150218+14+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=yes man if we can get the front band and then the heavy one behind it we will be in business. rush hour will be nightmarish for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BTW these are free to the public: http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php Wake and surrounding counties have been hit by this band for the last 24+ hours on all the modeling, even the WRF ARW/NMM aka RPM, so I can't see this changing today. Folks living in Wake, Harnett, and surrounding counties in Central NC have your video ready once it starts pouring look out for a chance at rare thundersnow! I've never heard it so I'm excited here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 man if we can get the front band and then the heavy one behind it we will be in business. rush hour will be nightmarish for sure. Only concern is 2m temps, we are already at 34F and it's 10am. We will definitely get to atleast 40F today, probably low 40's, doubt we see all snow, probably rain and then brief snow....sunangleFTL. NAM had us at 29 and GFS at 27 at 10am. Edit: Although the warmer temps/sun may add to the instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 14z rap gives GSO .08 qpf which is its highest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Only concern is 2m temps, we are already at 34F and it's 10am. We will definitely get to atleast 40F today, probably low 40's, doubt we see all snow, probably rain and then brief snow....sunangleFTL. NAM had us at 29 and GFS at 27 at 10am. Don't worry about 2m temps. They will crash if you get under a good band. Just before Feb. 2013 I think we were at like 42 or something. This is what it looked like after like 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Only concern is 2m temps, we are already at 34F and it's 10am. We will definitely get to atleast 40F today, probably low 40's, doubt we see all snow, probably rain and then brief snow....sunangleFTL. NAM had us at 29 and GFS at 27 at 10am. Edit: Although the warmer temps/sun may add to the instability? It will add the instability, already seeing higher CAPE values with the 12z NAM at 94....and the column will be saturated quick. The upper levels are cold enough to where the ground temps won't matter. It's only above freezing really close to the surface. Once it starts the lower level temps go to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BTW these are free to the public: http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php Wake and surrounding counties have been hit by this band for the last 24+ hours on all the modeling, even the WRF ARW/NMM aka RPM, so I can't see this changing today. Folks living in Wake, Harnett, and surrounding counties in Central NC have your video ready once it starts pouring look out for a chance at rare thundersnow! I've never heard it so I'm excited here. Yeah the ARW is the only model thats gung ho for the Charlotte area. There is just not enough synoptic forcing on the other models this far south. We will see though as once convection is set off it often propagates further south than what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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