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Wed Feb 18th Convective Snow Shower Chances


burgertime

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Greg on WRAL said earlier tonight that it could start as rain and quickly turn to very big heavy "bursts" of snow that could impact visibility. He said and I quote "this will be heavy and it will be likely during rush hour, but with temps about 35, I don't expect this will impact the roads at all so no worries". Now, I can name several snows in my life where it did impact roads in the mid 30s because of how fast it fell and people being on the road at the wrong time. Now, it may not stick very long before melting, but it has been cold and temps will be starting to fall. Not to mention, here in Raleigh most all the secondary roads and neighborhoods are mostly to completely covered still.

I just think he should have avoided saying what he did and left it at "it's a possibility roads could be impacted". Not only do I remeber these snows, but I also remeber Greg saying it would impact the roads as many times...

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Greg on WRAL said earlier tonight that it could start as rain and quickly turn to very big heavy "bursts" of snow that could impact visibility. He said and I quote "this will be heavy and it will be likely during rush hour, but with temps about 35, I don't expect this will impact the roads at all so no worries". Now, I can name several snows in my life where it did impact roads in the mid 30s because of how fast it fell and people being on the road at the wrong time. Now, it may not stick very long before melting, but it has been cold and temps will be starting to fall. Not to mention, here in Raleigh most all the secondary roads and neighborhoods are mostly to completely covered still.

I just think he should have avoided saying what he did and left it at "it's a possibility roads could be impacted".

great to see greg on board.  i will be happy with just 15 mins of heavy rates, but if i experience thundersnow i feel for my neighbors because i will lose my mind.

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This type of system can provide some unexpected results, and I would not be shocked if a few areas reach one to two inches of snow outside the mountains in North Carolina and into Virginia. With the amount of energy and the unstable air mass ahead of the front, the dynamics are favorable for snow showers east of the mountains. Even though there will be northwest flow, there will be abundant energy and there appears to be good low level moisture in place.

 

When all is said and done, I expect reports of a dusting to an inch of snow in places outside the mountains. The band of snow showers could have embedded elements that produce snow rates up to 1-2 inches an hour, and the precip axis should push through within two hours.

 

It will be fun to watch this system unfold. Be sure to check out my blog post about this event: http://wxjordan.com/weather-forecast/forecast/175-quick-hitting-snow-possible-before-arctic-blast

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Will this system continue to gain moisture as it moves east or will it basically fizzle out as it crosses the mountains into the foothills/piedmont?

 

It should fizzle some over the mountains (either completely or close to it), then reform in earnest over the foothills, I think.

 

The GFS looks solid, as well.  Seems to be a pretty sure thing we see flakes fall tomorrow and I tend to think there is a very good chance at light accumulations.

 

The 4km NAM brings a hell of a band through the Triad tomorrow around 3-5 PM.  It looks like it breaks up a little further east, though.  Max precip of >0.1" QPF runs from south of GSO to Durham and NE from there.  Someone that gets under some more banding could pick up in excess of an inch, though there's no way to say where that will be at this point.  Models aren't going to be able to forecast these convective type systems and generally just smooth things out.

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It should fizzle, then reform in the foothills, I think.

 

The GFS looks solid, as well.  Seems to be a pretty sure thing we see flakes fall tomorrow and I tend to think there is a very good chance at light accumulations.

If I understand it correctly, the downsloping mechanism will dry out the moisture that is associated with the energy as it crosses the immediate lee of the mtns. BUT, the energy in the upper levels is still there and moisture will re form as it moves east after downsloping has lost it's effect. Hence the reformation of precip farther east and the dryslot along the lee that we typically see with these systems.

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If I understand it correctly, the downsloping mechanism will dry out the moisture that is associated with the energy as it crosses the immediate lee of the mtns. BUT, the energy in the upper levels is still there and moisture will re form as it moves east after downsloping has lost it's effect. Hence the reformation of precip farther east and the dryslot along the lee that we typically see with these systems.

 

I believe so, yes.  This is what the RGEM shows and it seems realistic to me.  Someone will get screwed.  Actually, a lot of people probably will with these convective systems.  There will be winners and losers... people 10 miles away from 2" of snow that get nothing but flurries, etc...

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I believe so, yes.  This is what the RGEM shows and it seems realistic to me.  Someone will get screwed.  Actually, a lot of people probably will with these convective systems.  There will be winners and losers... people 10 miles away from 2" of snow that get nothing but flurries, etc...

Sounds like the RGEM is on course then. In the upstate I have seen precip reform as close as Anderson, to Ft. Inn, to E Spartanburg and anywhere SE of there. Pretty hard pill to swallow when that happens.

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