Regan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Greg on WRAL said earlier tonight that it could start as rain and quickly turn to very big heavy "bursts" of snow that could impact visibility. He said and I quote "this will be heavy and it will be likely during rush hour, but with temps about 35, I don't expect this will impact the roads at all so no worries". Now, I can name several snows in my life where it did impact roads in the mid 30s because of how fast it fell and people being on the road at the wrong time. Now, it may not stick very long before melting, but it has been cold and temps will be starting to fall. Not to mention, here in Raleigh most all the secondary roads and neighborhoods are mostly to completely covered still. I just think he should have avoided saying what he did and left it at "it's a possibility roads could be impacted". Not only do I remeber these snows, but I also remeber Greg saying it would impact the roads as many times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If I get a convective snow shower , with thunder tomorrow , I will by everyone on here from NC a drink! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Greg on WRAL said earlier tonight that it could start as rain and quickly turn to very big heavy "bursts" of snow that could impact visibility. He said and I quote "this will be heavy and it will be likely during rush hour, but with temps about 35, I don't expect this will impact the roads at all so no worries". Now, I can name several snows in my life where it did impact roads in the mid 30s because of how fast it fell and people being on the road at the wrong time. Now, it may not stick very long before melting, but it has been cold and temps will be starting to fall. Not to mention, here in Raleigh most all the secondary roads and neighborhoods are mostly to completely covered still. I just think he should have avoided saying what he did and left it at "it's a possibility roads could be impacted". great to see greg on board. i will be happy with just 15 mins of heavy rates, but if i experience thundersnow i feel for my neighbors because i will lose my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Man look at what has become of wave # 2 on radar. Looks like mix is occurring along coast. Also you can see the front advancing. If these 2 could have hooked up, wowzers. They where off by about 15 hoursvt though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You'd think we should get a high wind warning for tomorrow afternoon and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If that line could hold together that's pushing into NE Arky.... Wishful thinking I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You'd think we should get a high wind warning for tomorrow afternoon and night. Haven't heard much about the winds with this one. What are we looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Robert just posted on Facebook and in his post he mentioned the wind will be ripping tommorow night.. but no mention from nws about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 SREF plumes backed off for my area. Maybe a flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Typically, we have to worry about precip not making it over the mountains. However, since this is accompanying an arctic front, I'm wondering if the mountains could provide additional lift to enhance precip. Unfamiliar with these dynamics, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This type of system can provide some unexpected results, and I would not be shocked if a few areas reach one to two inches of snow outside the mountains in North Carolina and into Virginia. With the amount of energy and the unstable air mass ahead of the front, the dynamics are favorable for snow showers east of the mountains. Even though there will be northwest flow, there will be abundant energy and there appears to be good low level moisture in place. When all is said and done, I expect reports of a dusting to an inch of snow in places outside the mountains. The band of snow showers could have embedded elements that produce snow rates up to 1-2 inches an hour, and the precip axis should push through within two hours. It will be fun to watch this system unfold. Be sure to check out my blog post about this event: http://wxjordan.com/weather-forecast/forecast/175-quick-hitting-snow-possible-before-arctic-blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If this happens in NC tomorrow during rush hour, people will lose their minds. Raleigh is the same city that had people stuck in cars for 8 hours or more one time because of less than a half inch of snow. And if it falls heavy enough with how cold it has been lately, it will at least stick on the secondary roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 hires nam looks great for rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Robert just posted on Facebook and in his post he mentioned the wind will be ripping tommorow night.. but no mention from nws about it GSP mentioned it in their discussion but said it would be sub-advisory level winds across the area. Should be much less windy than this past Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Springfield NWS tweeted they got 2 inches of snow in 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Springfield NWS tweeted they got 2 inches of snow in 45 minutes. this thing is vigorous for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The NAM looks decent for this event. It will be interesting to watch tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The NAM looks decent for this event. It will be interesting to watch tomorrow afternoon. Hoping that line holds together and makes it this far east. Would love to see a nice burst of snow with big flakes and high rates even if it only last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That southern end in Arkansas looks pretty good right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Will this system continue to gain moisture as it moves east or will it basically fizzle out as it crosses the mountains into the foothills/piedmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Will this system continue to gain moisture as it moves east or will it basically fizzle out as it crosses the mountains into the foothills/piedmont? It should fizzle some over the mountains (either completely or close to it), then reform in earnest over the foothills, I think. The GFS looks solid, as well. Seems to be a pretty sure thing we see flakes fall tomorrow and I tend to think there is a very good chance at light accumulations. The 4km NAM brings a hell of a band through the Triad tomorrow around 3-5 PM. It looks like it breaks up a little further east, though. Max precip of >0.1" QPF runs from south of GSO to Durham and NE from there. Someone that gets under some more banding could pick up in excess of an inch, though there's no way to say where that will be at this point. Models aren't going to be able to forecast these convective type systems and generally just smooth things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Would be neat to even see a dusting since we already have a sleet pack on the ground. Not very often we get to see snow fall with the ground already white!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It should fizzle, then reform in the foothills, I think. The GFS looks solid, as well. Seems to be a pretty sure thing we see flakes fall tomorrow and I tend to think there is a very good chance at light accumulations. If I understand it correctly, the downsloping mechanism will dry out the moisture that is associated with the energy as it crosses the immediate lee of the mtns. BUT, the energy in the upper levels is still there and moisture will re form as it moves east after downsloping has lost it's effect. Hence the reformation of precip farther east and the dryslot along the lee that we typically see with these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The RGEM is a little different. It completely mauls the original band in the mountains, but it reforms near I-77 and moves eastward from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If I understand it correctly, the downsloping mechanism will dry out the moisture that is associated with the energy as it crosses the immediate lee of the mtns. BUT, the energy in the upper levels is still there and moisture will re form as it moves east after downsloping has lost it's effect. Hence the reformation of precip farther east and the dryslot along the lee that we typically see with these systems. I believe so, yes. This is what the RGEM shows and it seems realistic to me. Someone will get screwed. Actually, a lot of people probably will with these convective systems. There will be winners and losers... people 10 miles away from 2" of snow that get nothing but flurries, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I believe so, yes. This is what the RGEM shows and it seems realistic to me. Someone will get screwed. Actually, a lot of people probably will with these convective systems. There will be winners and losers... people 10 miles away from 2" of snow that get nothing but flurries, etc... Sounds like the RGEM is on course then. In the upstate I have seen precip reform as close as Anderson, to Ft. Inn, to E Spartanburg and anywhere SE of there. Pretty hard pill to swallow when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The Euro continues to concentrate the heaviest along the I-40 corridor in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Reeling this in.... NWS office in Memphis reported .25" of snow with that narrow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 HRRR depicts the band through the High County around 11am and then east of the I-77 corridor around 2:00pm Image courtesy of Weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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