Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 He's probably talking about cobb outputs.... 150219/0000Z 36 28015KT 24.7F SNOW 26:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 26:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 Yes, it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yep! Anybody from HKY , Rutherfordton, to GSP back torwards the mountains , will see nada from this! Now Winston to CLT, to Gaffney and east, could easily score an inch ! It'll be just like summertime, I can look to my east , and see the thunderheads , smh Anytime precipitation comes from that direction or has to cross over the mountains that WILL happen. Hard to watch but it's just the way it is. Looks like Friday system may have similar issues as it will be coming from due west as modeled, will down slope from North Georgia mountains, plus cold is retreating. Not a good recipe for the upstate. I'm hoping though, against hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Someone on the other board said it put over an inch at RDU with 26:1 ratio. Someone needs to put down the wacky weed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I seem to recall a storm that hit at night that had thundersnow in 2000s. lets hope happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Someone needs to put down the wacky weed.Dandelions? Quick math: if you had roughly .60 QPF yesterday, with those ratios, you would have about 15 inches of fluff now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Someone needs to put down the wacky weed.Damn your old! Who says that anymore? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Here's a video I recorded from a convective snow shower in 2013. Pretty cool event and would love to repeat! Edit: For some reason not showing when I hit post. I went to BBCode and to media to add video, and it appears, but when I hit post it is gone. What am I doing wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like a large area under a winter weather advisory. Congrats fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like a large area under a winter weather advisory. Congrats fellas. Ya how bout that black ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Based on the 18z NAM I would say the best position for this would be from about Shelby to Charlotte to Concord to Winston Salem to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Ya how bout that black icelol just read that after posting. I do like what the models are spitting out down that way. Will be interesting tomorrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The 15z SREF plumes seemed to improve a bit. For example, the mean for Greensboro went from .13 to .24 inches of snow and the probabilities went from about 40% chance to 80%. I could go for a heavy dusting with a flash freeze to follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The 15z SREF plumes seemed to improve a bit. For example, the mean for Greensboro went from .13 to .24 inches of snow and the probabilities went from about 40% chance to 80%. I could go for a heavy dusting with a flash freeze to follow! We could use a little something to revitalize the snowpack so that we can make a run at 0 degrees on Thursday or Friday night. I think I experienced -2F temperatures back in 2005 or 2006 in WV, but I've never experienced that here. I don't think it's been that cold here in about three decades. Looks like the 18z NAM would put down 0.5-1" (maybe with ratios... maybe) for us, not that it really means anything at this point. We're just going to have to radar-watch and hope for luck. We'll probably get HRRRed and RAPped a few times, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 26:1 ratios? Holy cow! Where do things like that happen, Antarctica maybe?! Of course that is unusually cold and dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think I experienced -2F temperatures back in 2005 or 2006 in WV, but I've never experienced that here. I don't think it's been that cold here in about three decades. 1996 was the last time RDU hit zero. I don't know how public schools and universities are going to have classes tomorrow, there's still a ton of ice on roads and sidewalks. We only have about 1-2 hours before temps fall below freezing again and it will be a hard freeze. The sidewalks are sheets of ice. I guess the good news is, if it snows, ground temps should not be an issue for accumulation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 26:1 ratios? Holy cow! Where do things like that happen, Antarctica maybe?! Of course that is unusually cold and dry air. I think COBB gets a little crazy with ratios sometime. They should be high, but I doubt anywhere near that high. Pack, I did not realize it had been that cold as recently as 1996. I guess I experienced that here, as well, though I must have been too young to remember it specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think COBB gets a little crazy with ratios sometime. They should be high, but I doubt anywhere near that high. Pack, I did not realize it had been that cold as recently as 1996. I guess I experienced that here, as well, though I must have been too young to remember it specifically. We need boundary layer temps to be rather frigid too, right? Or do they not matter much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 RGEM is beefing up precip a little across central NC. Roughly 0.5-1" across a good chunk of the area, be a dusting, if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 RGEM is beefing up precip a little across central NC. Roughly 0.5-1" across a good chunk of the area, be a dusting, if it's right. If this is like Feb 2013 do not underestimate how much liquid can get ringed out. It's the same thing as a thunderstorm, no model is going to get the QPF right. You could easily get .25 out of one of the bands. I tend to recall the vort being more intense in Feb. 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Good chance of a flash freeze after this thing tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Even though it is tough to model exactly where these cells will set up.. here is the 4km nam's latest guess. 18z Nam 4km courtesy of WxBell: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Great stuff, Ward. Thanks for posting those images. Maybe Hickory does have a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If this is like Feb 2013 do not underestimate how much liquid can get ringed out. It's the same thing as a thunderstorm, no model is going to get the QPF right. You could easily get .25 out of one of the bands. I tend to recall the vort being more intense in Feb. 2013. I don't remember that event? Which event was it? Looks like there was 2 in Feb. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I don't remember that event? Which event was it? Looks like there was 2 in Feb. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif #1 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Someone needs to put down the wacky weed. No, not really. In January of 2003 CLT had 8.5 inches of snow with only 0.17" of liquid. That's nearly 50 to 1 ratios and it was from a set up not too far off from this one. Trust me, the ratios will be high with this one. I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Good chance of a flash freeze after this thing tomorrow This. What a potential disaster this could be tomorrow across central NC. Day After Tomorrow type event! Flash freezing everywhere in the middle of rush hour. Thank goodness schools are already out in many places. Be prepared folks! Southern housing is not insulated for this weather and your heat pump will NOT keep up. Close foundation vents. Open cabinet doors on wet walls to let the heat into your cabinets and walls. Shut off any valves to exterior faucets. Even the smallest amount of water will crack pipes at zero and below. Take care of pets too! I know this may sound like an overeaction, but if you think I am overreacting then I would lay money on you not being prepared. You wont see 32 degrees again for 3 days. Many of you wont see 25! I hate this kind of cold but what an amazing event this will be to track tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 NWS is now saying that downsloping may not be that big of a deal tomorrow. We shall see... THE FRONT APPEARS TIMED TO ENTER THE MTNS A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK ANDTHROUGH THE AREA BY SUNSET. 500MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT FALL AS THEDAY PROGRESSES. THESE WILL ALLOW STRONG LAPSE RATES INVOF THE FRONT.GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP CAPE UPWARDS OF 100 J OVER A CONTIGUOUSPORTION OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY IN NC. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE NOWDEVELOPS CONVECTIVE PRECIP DURING THE DAY IN THESEAREAS...DOWNSLOPING NOT LOOKING TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT. THOUGH TEMPSWILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE PRECIP BEGINSTHE DEEP MIXING AND RAPID ONSET OF PRECIP WILL ALLOW WET BULBING DOWNTO TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. USING THIS TO DELINEATE AREAS SEEINGSNOW...AND BLENDED MODEL QPF...TOTALS MAY APPROACH AN INCH OVER AREASJUST N AND W OF CHARLOTTE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHTIF CONFIDENCE OR QPF INCREASES...PUTTING TOTALS OVER AN INCH. THEMTNS NEAR THE TENN BORDER WILL SEE BOTH INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPEFORCING...AND SNOW TOTALS WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THEDAY. AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING AT 7AMWED...CONTINUING THRU WED NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 NWS is now saying that downsloping may not be that big of a deal tomorrow. We shall see... We shall see calc! Thanks for posting that.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 NWS forecast-- .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THEAFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOWACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATUREFALLING INTO THE MID 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 10 TO15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT..WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOWSHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPHWITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILLVALUES AS LOW AS 4 BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is a very similar setup to the event on Feb 16, 2013. Temps where mid 30s here in Mooresville As the squall approached. It was pounding Hickory based on observations I read here so I knew it was heading my way. I looked outside toward Hickory and saw a wall of very dark gray clouds. Just like a summer squall line. Once the line got within a 1/8 mile of my house, I could detect a white curtain bearing down on me. I mean I could see it pouring down snow a hundred yards from me as it advanced forward. Once it reached me I witnessed the hardest snowfall I've every seen in my 52 years. It continued to snow at that rate for a solid 40 minutes and then just as quickly, it was over. We easily eneded up with 1.5 ". I'll never forget it. I have attached two photos, the first is at 3:50 PM, 5 minutes after it started. The second was taken an hour later. Keep in mind this took place with temps at 34-35 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.