IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The ridge is even stronger this run on the GFS and the energy is more amplified. The surface low goes to Louisville. This is not even close to being a solution that would bring mostly frozen to the area. Not even close. If you think this is not going to cut then you're just fooling yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Low in eastern Ohio Sunday morning. Not as strong as it was at 00z. Some front end slop before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 1-3" on the front end and then quickly over to moderate rain before daybreak on Sunday. Not much in the way of ice, just briefly as the transition occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Boston over to moderate rain by 10AM on Sunday, that's how fast things warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 First surface low goes to Toronto, rain all the way into central VT and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not as much rain as 00z..Looks to stay under a inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The only thing preventing a total disaster is that the surface low stays weak. The energy doesn't completely cut off over CA like the GFS was showing yesterday which would allow the trough to amplify more and setup a better moisture feed from the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not as much rain as 00z..Looks to stay under a inch. It looks wetter than 06z in certain locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Thats the best case scenario for the snow pack regions and rivers...they can handle .75 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yup...that is huge. That map would indicate a cutter is in the offing. Being that a deviation of 100 miles for the storm track would change things substantialy for us I'm going to reserve judgement until later this week. Models have vasilated too much this year inside of 96 hours not to. Its also a bit of wishcasting. The NAM has a strong SE ridge, as do the other models, kiss of death right there, along with a bunch of other problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Ctrain made a good post in the Sne thread...Flash freeze potential Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not as much rain as 00z..Looks to stay under a inch. Agreed, we can even take an inch, but surface temps really torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Agreed, we can even take an inch, but surface temps really torch. Upper 40's...then crash Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Upper 40's...then crash Sunday night Yeah, upper 40's, better hope we stay under an inch of rain. As I said earlier, the snowpack has almost 3" of liquid. 2.8" to be exact per NWS product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Low continues to be very weak on the gfs after its wrapped up solution of 00z. That has been the trend all year...no shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Obviously getting into long range but it remains below normal next week on the gfs with a winter storm threat at the end of the week..sw ejecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Low continues to be very weak on the gfs after its wrapped up solution of 00z. That has been the trend all year...no shocked All of the Euro ensembles were weak with the low pressure. I'm worried about the CAD trending stronger as we get closer. That would help keep the boundary further South. Right now we're being helped by the boundary quickly lifting North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Pv north of the great lakes late next week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z GGEM coming in more amped up than 00z through 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not just a little more amped up, much more amped up. Looks like we'll still get a decent front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like 2-4" or 3-5" Saturday night. More SW of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surface low to NW Ohio, close to Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 At 06z Sunday the surface low is about 100 miles West of the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Chicago going to get a good snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Less amplified on the gfs. Wonder if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surface low to NW Ohio, close to Detroit.Hello flooding problems, I'm guessing if it's that amped up it has alot of warm sector rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Pouring rain Sunday, 991mb to Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Pouring rain all the way to Northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Strong cold front comes through Sunday afternoon. 989mb near Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Rain all the way into Montreal. Then a possible flip to snow as the front moves through our area, but you'll be fighting the precip shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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