PB GFI Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think he meant in terms of using the October snow index in term of predicting the AO for the winter. In terms of the winter, def not bad considering the start! Many places N&E of NYC were above average with the blizzard getting eastern areas and nice front end dumps from SWFEs for northern areas (and western). Southern areas caught up in the past week. NYC proper is also around average. I'll take it! If the correlation was to the AO then ok. I thought he was referring to the winter at first glance. Ita been a cold winter with normal snowfall with several near misses That is just part for the course here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The NWS has me at 44F on Sunday, AW the same, and TWC at 47. I was kind of hoping for a better prog at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This winter will just about be the end of using the October snowcover index to predict the AO for the winter. What a fail this year. That the SAI performed very badly this winter and not very well last winter, too, indicates that the correlation between the rate of increase in October Eurasian snow cover and the winter AO is probably weaker than had first been thought. We'll need more winters to be sure, but the recent outcomes are not encouraging. Perhaps the events that lead to rapid advances in such snow cover are more top-down than bottom-up? In other words, those events have more influence on the snow cover change than the snow cover change has on the atmospheric state (AO)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There's no high of any kind locking cold air in before the storm cuts for the Lakes, in fact there's a high over the Atlantic helping the WAA. There shouldn't be much front end snow at all. I'd be very worried if I was in SNE and had 2-3+ feet of snow to clear off my house, or lived in a flood zone since this should torch big time and drop up to 2" of rain.No cold high locked in to the north, no 50/50 low, no -nao, no -ao, strong western Atlantic ridge, high moves east out into the Atlantic and we see return flow. Worst setup possible for a snowstorm for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 No cold high locked in to the north, no 50/50 low, no -nao, no -ao, strong western Atlantic ridge, high moves east out into the Atlantic and we see return flow. Worst setup possible for a snowstorm for us We will not avoid the rain with this one . The question is how much snow falls on the front end . There looks to be a decent amount of precip in the warm sector and that spells trouble for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We will not avoid the rain with this one . The question is how much snow falls on the front end . There looks to be a decent amount of precip in the warm sector and that spells trouble for SNE Need the models to speed up the precip before the cold air lifts out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We will not avoid the rain with this one . The question is how much snow falls on the front end . There looks to be a decent amount of precip in the warm sector and that spells trouble for SNE All depends on the ultimate track of the low-6z GFS was further south and east keeping the warm section further south and east as well. Hopefully it moves fast, and we see a thump of snow ice followed by a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The gfs despite the upgrade is still the same as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The gfs despite the upgrade is still the same as always. It has really sucked with the last few storms, it completely blew the system several days ago for Boston and was horrible here the other night, most models were but the GFS was exceptionally far south and east compared to most. The UKMET and Euro are the only 2 models beyond 72 I would put any trust in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It has really sucked with the last few storms, it completely blew the system several days ago for Boston and was horrible here the other night, most models were but the GFS was exceptionally far south and east compared to most. The UKMET and Euro are the only 2 models beyond 72 I would put any trust in right now. What did they show on the 0z runs last night? Didn't see any recap of PBP on the thread here, thus I assume they weren't good for the snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This winter will just about be the end of using the October snowcover index to predict the AO for the winter. What a fail this year. The good news is that the Pacific side blocking in the EPO and PNA regions was strong enough to provide plenty of cold air for NYC to get to normal snowfall on the season with the most recent snow. The back-loaded weak El Nino/+PDO cold and snow idea for this winter worked out very well. The lack of a -AO will be more remembered in the MA region . Current NYC snowfall.......24.4"..........seasonal average......25.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 All depends on the ultimate track of the low-6z GFS was further south and east keeping the warm section further south and east as well. Hopefully it moves fast, and we see a thump of snow ice followed by a dry slot.It also depends on whether the energy remains consolidated or not. If the low can consolidate and the s/w can amp itself up, then all signs point to a cutter. We (sne especially) want a more sheared out mess which will allow the s/w to remain progressive within the screaming flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Even the 06z GFS which people were saying was a less amped up solution still had a lot of rain for the area and very little snow. Cutters gonna cut, just have to accept it. The Euro ensembles were all cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 With respect to the AO, with 10 days to go in meteorological winter: - Days > 0: 71% - Days +1 or above: 36% - Days +2 or above: 13% - Days < 0: 29% - Days -1 or below: 9% - Days -2 or below: 0% Highest: +3.096 Lowest: -1.622 Average: +0.610 If every remaining day was negative (and the ensembles suggest a positive outcome for all the remaining days of meteorological winter is more likely), 63% of days would still have wound up as positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The good news is that the Pacific side blocking in the EPO and PNA regions was strong enough to provide plenty of cold air for NYC to get to normal snowfall on the season with the most recent snow. The back-loaded weak El Nino/+PDO cold and snow idea for this winter worked out very well. The lack of a -AO will be more remembered in the MA region . Current NYC snowfall.......24.4"..........seasonal average......25.1" Bluewave, the -EPO/-WPO the last 2 seasons has been very impressive. I think what hurt the MA more this winter was the lack of any -NAO. Not having a -NAO allows SE ridging and just kills them, not having any semblance of a -AO either is another factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 1/16/94 is now the #1 analog over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nothing is set in stone with the way the models have performed. We call this wishcasting... No model shows more than a few inches on a front end dump and then all models and ensembles show some type of cutter. At three days out, this is pretty much set in stone given the fantastic agreement amongst the OP's and strong ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 1/16/94 is now the #1 analog over the East. Really close to a decent solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Look forward to rain to wash all the nasty salt off the roads and wash my car au naturale. Sorry for the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 1/16/94 had alot of ice if I recall correctly. Locally, it featured a brutal flash freeze after-puddles running down the side of the road literally froze in an instant-you could see the ripples where the water had flowed just froze solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 1/16/94 had alot of ice if I recall correctly. Locally, it featured a brutal flash freeze after-puddles running down the side of the road literally froze in an instant-you could see the ripples where the water had flowed just froze solid. Yes, it was a real mess up here. Many municipalities ran out of road salt after that one due to that flash freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Whatever rain falls and snowmelt, temps back into the teens by Monday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Even the 06z GFS which people were saying was a less amped up solution still had a lot of rain for the area and very little snow. Cutters gonna cut, just have to accept it. The Euro ensembles were all cutters. It may be a cutter but there's a huge difference between a sheared and consolidated solution especially for SNE. If the 0z gfs verifies we are talking a massive disaster for that area while they would avoid such a scenario on the 06z gfs. Also it's not a lock yet so it's too early to go into absolutes. We've seen models shift hundreds of miles in under 2 days so it'll take a couple more days before a final solution can exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I was looking at some of the NWS hydro products yesterday. The snowpack over Western Passaic County contains an average estimated 2.8" LE. I'm not so sure why people are only focusing on Boston. We would have plenty of our own hydro issues. Especially considering that the ground is completely frozen and so is the snowpack. Most if not everything that falls will run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I know the futility of looking at the NAM at over 48 hours, but at 84 hours it's very far south in terms of low placement. As depicted, it does not look like a cutter. I know...it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I know the futility of looking at the NAM at over 48 hours, but at 84 hours it's very far south in terms of low placement. As depicted, it does not look like a cutter. I know...it's the NAM. Good point... it usually is WAYYY amped up at the end of its range... we shall see what the other models show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I know the futility of looking at the NAM at over 48 hours, but at 84 hours it's very far south in terms of low placement. As depicted, it does not look like a cutter. I know...it's the NAM. Do you see how far West the southeast ridge is here? This has no choice but to ride the mid-level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yup...that is huge. That map would indicate a cutter is in the offing. Being that a deviation of 100 miles for the storm track would change things substantialy for us I'm going to reserve judgement until later this week. Models have vasilated too much this year inside of 96 hours not to. Its also a bit of wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like some more icing issues for the lower mid Atlantic before they warm..cad in that area showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This would be much further south and good for the area if the PV was situated on our side, not in central canada. The PV over there helps dig the trough on the backside of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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