Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 big snow hit for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 minor front end slop 1-2... SurfAce low in southern Indiana Sunday morning. All rain from nyc south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 RAin to Maine by Sunday afternoon.. Cutter oVer cle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Severe flooding from PA to Maine. 2-3" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 if we get a cutter with snow to ice to rain so be it...There is still cold air behind it and more storms to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Actually time is quickly running out a major pattern change will occur around March 1st. It is looking the the +PNA pattern will become a - one and with a+AO and +NAO I think the chances for a big snow storm will be greatly reduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Actually time is quickly running out a major pattern change will occur around March 1st. It is looking the the +PNA pattern will become a - one and with a+AO and +NAO I think the chances for a big snow storm will be greatly reduced. Pattern change? All I have been hearing is a cold start to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GGEM shifted northwest. Rain all the way up to Maine. Time for bed. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Actually time is quickly running out a major pattern change will occur around March 1st. It is looking the the +PNA pattern will become a - one and with a+AO and +NAO I think the chances for a big snow storm will be greatly reduced. by March 1st I'll be looking forward to warmer weather...I hope NYC reaches 30" by then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 by March 1st I'll be looking forward to warmer weather...I hope NYC reaches 30" by then... For me, I wait until April to look forward to warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 At least the GGEM shows several inches before the flooding rains come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 At least the GGEM shows several inches before the flooding rains come in. How much rain is the GGEM showing? I believe the GFS was showing around 2-3" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 At least the GGEM shows several inches before the flooding rains come in. There's no high of any kind locking cold air in before the storm cuts for the Lakes, in fact there's a high over the Atlantic helping the WAA. There shouldn't be much front end snow at all. I'd be very worried if I was in SNE and had 2-3+ feet of snow to clear off my house, or lived in a flood zone since this should torch big time and drop up to 2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Some snow then rain on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That can wait until April. We still have an active pattern ahead of us.All the teleconnections are going the wrong way in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro is showing a coastal at hour 156. Most of it misses us to the south and east, but maybe this will be the start of something. It would certainly be a snow event as per the euroThis is likely our last true chance at anything as all teleconnections look to jump off a winter weather cliff following this. The PNA plummets, the EPO spikes and the AO is raging positive with a positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is likely our last true chance at anything as all teleconnections look to jump off a winter weather cliff following this. The PNA plummets, the EPO spikes and the AO is raging positive with a positive NAO. This winter will just about be the end of using the October snowcover index to predict the AO for the winter. What a fail this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 In a way it will be good if the +PNA finally breaks down, more opportunity for CA to get much needed rain, and cold enough air for snow in the Sierras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This winter will just about be the end of using the October snowcover index to predict the AO for the winter. What a fail this year.Amen and to think, after all that epic hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This is likely our last true chance at anything as all teleconnections look to jump off a winter weather cliff following this. The PNA plummets, the EPO spikes and the AO is raging positive with a positive NAO. How predictable/reliable are teleconnection forecasts 10+ days out? I personally have no experience with those signals and do not know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This winter will just about be the end of using the October snowcover index to predict the AO for the winter. What a fail this year.There's a plethora of work being done in this area as well the relationship between the AO and NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 How predictable/reliable are teleconnection forecasts 10+ days out? I personally have no experience with those signals and do not know.They can be fickle and predicted to switch too quickly, but everything points to a this pattern change being will modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 They can be fickle and predicted to switch too quickly, but everything points to a this pattern change being will modeled. gotcha. thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Amen and to think, after all that epic hype This winter has resembled La Nina much more than El Nino in the Lower 48. No southern stream to speak of besides in rare instances like this past storm, CA still well below average precip, while the Northwest has been getting drenched. SWFE systems blasting I-90, and obviously the awesome New England pattern which can take over during Ninas at the Mid-Atlantic's expense. Once the PNA gives out the SE Ridge will be able to reign again and blast the Midwest before the winter ends. The exception to the general Nina pattern may be down here, although dry weather has been the rule this month in Texas. The EPO has come to the rescue of at least closer to NYC the past few weeks to get it to at least normal but the "awesomeness" of this winter has definitely been limited in scope and nowhere near where you would expect it in an El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This winter has resembled La Nina much more than El Nino in the Lower 48. No southern stream to speak of besides in rare instances like this past storm, CA still well below average precip, while the Northwest has been getting drenched. SWFE systems blasting I-90, and obviously the awesome New England pattern which can take over during Ninas at the Mid-Atlantic's expense. Once the PNA gives out the SE Ridge will be able to reign again and blast the Midwest before the winter ends. The exception to the general Nina pattern may be down here, although dry weather has been the rule this month in Texas. The EPO has come to the rescue of at least closer to NYC the past few weeks to get it to at least normal but the "awesomeness" of this winter has definitely been limited in scope and nowhere near where you would expect it in an El Nino. The snow cover in Siberia saved the winter despite the fact the AO never behaved as was expected, you can be sure even with the +PNA and -EPO we would not have seen air this cold coming into the east if not for that, it woud probably have been very modified air overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 They can be fickle and predicted to switch too quickly, but everything points to a this pattern change being will modeled. The fact the Euro does not really want to show any evidence of the pattern breaking I'm not so sure I buy the GFS, it tried this as well several weeks ago and the Euro did not buy it and within several days the GFS began modifying the wild increase in the AO/NAO and PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 06z gfs is back to a far less amplified, more sheared out solution which would spare SNE disaster. Given the progressive nature of the pattern along with the strong cold press I'd favor this solution over last night's big amplified cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 06z gfs is back to a far less amplified, more sheared out solution which would spare SNE disaster. Given the progressive nature of the pattern along with the strong cold press I'd favor this solution over last night's big amplified cutter. Just saw the over night runs , lets hope for the less amped solution. If this is going to cut so be it , but a few inches of rain in NE would be a disaster and I hope this thing can get itself to be some strung out POS as to spare those guys . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This winter will just about be the end of using the October snowcover index to predict the AO for the winter. What a fail this year.Fail ? Long Island has 40 inches of snow, Feb will finish -10 and the winter -3 . The AO didn't stop this winter from yielding below N temps and A normal snowfall for L I . The rest of the board will see N snowfall with B normal temps. That can never be viewed as a fail . If people want to judge their winter against NE s then I would say look at your climo we don't live in NE and understand what N is for your area The winter was average where the blizzard missed and above average where it hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Fail ? Long Island has 40 inches of snow, Feb will finish -10 and the winter -3 . The AO didn't stop this winter from yielding below N temps and A normal snowfall for L I . The rest of the board will see N snowfall with B normal temps. That can never be viewed as a fail . If people want to judge their winter against NE s then I would say look at your climo we don't live in NE and understand what N is for your area The winter was average where the blizzard missed and above average where it hit. 1 rain storm and this winter sucked. Lol. I think he meant in terms of using the October snow index in term of predicting the AO for the winter. In terms of the winter, def not bad considering the start! Many places N&E of NYC were above average with the blizzard getting eastern areas and nice front end dumps from SWFEs for northern areas (and western). Southern areas caught up in the past week. NYC proper is also around average. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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